Good pick · fair odds 1.58 · bookmaker 1.57 · Won ✓
6/10Rating
1.57Odds
2
Value bet: Napoli to win @ 3.10 – our chance 38% vs 32% implied by the price (edge +18%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultVillarreal to win ✓41% · @2.10
Double chanceEither team to win ✓79% · @1.29
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓63% · @1.57
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓80% · fair 1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 11.68
Villarreal vs Napoli: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Tuesday 13 October the UEFA Champions League brings Villarreal against Napoli at Estadio de la Cerámica. Kick-off: 20:00 WAT. In the table, Villarreal are 28th, lower half, on 3 points after 4 matches; Napoli are 27th (lower half) with 3. They are level on points, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
Villarreal, last 5: LWWLL Their latest outing: 0–1 defeat to Real Madrid, away. In their own stadium the record reads 1 won, 2 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.8 scored, 1.8 conceded per game.
Napoli, last 5: WDWLL Their latest outing: 3–0 win over Frosinone, at home. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 1.2 conceded per game.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Villarreal 1.5 xG, Napoli 1.5 xG – a total near 3.0. Both nets should be busy – over 2.5 sits at 58% and GG at 63%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Villarreal 41%, draw 21%, Napoli 38%.
GG/NG: GG (63%) at 1.57.
Price worth noting: Napoli to win @3.10 – the bookmaker implies 32%, our ratings say 38%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Both teams to score (63%, odds 1.57). Most likely score in line with that pick: Villarreal 1–1 Napoli. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Villarreal41%fair 2.46 · @2.10
Draw21%fair 4.72 · @3.50
Napoli38%fair 2.62 · @3.10
3.00Expected goals
1.53Villarreal xG
1.47Napoli xG
63%Both score
58%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–111%
2–19%
1–28%
1–08%
0–17%
2–26%
From our goals model: Villarreal 1.5 – 1.5 Napoli expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Villarreal to win✓
41%
2.46
2.10
Double chance
Either team to win✓
79%
1.27
1.29
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
63%
1.58
1.57
Draw no bet
Villarreal (draw no bet)✓
52%
1.94
–
Asian handicap
Napoli +0.5 (Asian handicap)✗
61%
1.64
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
80%
1.25
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
58%
1.73
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
65%
1.55
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
82%
1.23
–
First team to score
Villarreal to score first
48%
2.07
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
40%
2.52
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Villarreal / FT Villarreal✓
23%
4.33
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
11.68
–
Recent results
Villarreal – last 6
LWWLLL
10 Oct
@ Real Madrid
0–1
L
20 Sep
vs Levante
3–1
W
17 Sep
@ Malaga
3–1
W
14 Sep
vs Real Betis
1–2
L
8 Sep
@ Borussia Dortmund
2–3
L
5 Sep
vs Deportivo La Coruna
2–3
L
1.8Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
83%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Napoli – last 6
WDWLLL
10 Oct
vs Frosinone
3–0
W
20 Sep
@ Fiorentina
1–1
D
13 Sep
vs Bologna
1–0
W
9 Sep
vs Arsenal
0–1
L
5 Sep
@ Inter
2–3
L
30 Aug
vs Como
1–2
L
1.3Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Villarreal and Napoli.
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 63% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.57.
Who will win Villarreal vs Napoli?
On our numbers Villarreal have a 41% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Napoli 38%.
How many goals will there be in Villarreal vs Napoli?
We expect about 3.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 58% likely and both teams score 63% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Villarreal vs Napoli?
Our predicted score is Villarreal 1–1 Napoli, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.0 goals in total.
When is Villarreal vs Napoli?
Villarreal vs Napoli (UEFA Champions League) kicks off on Tuesday 13 October 2026 at 20:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio de la Cerámica.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
