AS Roma 22%Draw 23%Real Madrid 55%Expected goals 0.89 – 1.61
78%
Betarazi pick
Real Madrid or draw
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.28 · bookmaker 1.30 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.30Odds
Picks by market
ResultReal Madrid to win ✓55% · @1.91
Double chanceReal Madrid or draw ✓78% · @1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓63% · @1.40
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗76% · fair 1.32
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗9% · fair 10.56
AS Roma vs Real Madrid: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Real Madrid travel to face AS Roma on Wednesday 14 October in the UEFA Champions League, with Stadio Olimpico the venue – the ball rolls at 20:00 WAT. In the table, AS Roma are 20th, lower half, on 4 points after 4 matches; Real Madrid are 2nd (among the top four) with 12.
Current form
AS Roma, last 5: DDWDW Their latest outing: 0–0 draw with Como, away. Goals for and against: 1.8 scored, 0.7 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Real Madrid, last 5: WLWWW Their latest outing: 1–0 win over Villarreal, at home. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 2 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.8 scored, 1.2 conceded per game.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give AS Roma 0.9 xG, Real Madrid 1.6 xG – a total near 2.5. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 46%, GG 63%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – AS Roma 22%, draw 23%, Real Madrid 55%.
Lower-risk option: Real Madrid or draw (78%) at 1.30.
GG/NG: GG (63%) at 1.40.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Real Madrid or draw (78%, odds 1.30). Most likely score in line with that pick: AS Roma 0–1 Real Madrid. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
AS Roma22%fair 4.63 · @3.40
Draw23%fair 4.34 · @3.80
Real Madrid55%fair 1.81 · @1.91
2.50Expected goals
0.89AS Roma xG
1.61Real Madrid xG
63%Both score
46%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
0–113%
1–112%
0–211%
1–29%
0–08%
1–07%
From our goals model: AS Roma 0.9 – 1.6 Real Madrid expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Real Madrid to win✓
55%
1.81
1.91 ▲
Double chance
Real Madrid or draw✓
78%
1.28
1.30
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
63%
1.60
1.40
Draw no bet
Real Madrid (draw no bet)✓
72%
1.39
–
Asian handicap
AS Roma +1 (Asian handicap)
61%
1.64
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
71%
1.40
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
54%
1.84
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
76%
1.32
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✗
89%
1.12
–
First team to score
Real Madrid to score first
59%
1.69
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
43%
2.32
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Real Madrid / FT Real Madrid✗
33%
3.02
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
9%
10.56
–
Recent results
AS Roma – last 6
DDWDWW
11 Oct
@ Como
0–0
D
19 Sep
vs Inter
2–2
D
14 Sep
@ Torino
2–0
W
10 Sep
@ Fenerbahçe
1–1
D
5 Sep
vs Atalanta
2–1
W
31 Aug
@ Lecce
4–0
W
1.8Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Real Madrid – last 6
WLWWWL
10 Oct
vs Villarreal
1–0
W
20 Sep
@ Atletico Madrid
1–2
L
15 Sep
@ Elche
3–2
W
12 Sep
vs Rayo Vallecano
4–1
W
8 Sep
vs Inter
2–1
W
4 Sep
@ Real Betis
0–1
L
1.8Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between AS Roma and Real Madrid.
What is the prediction for AS Roma vs Real Madrid?
Our pick is Real Madrid or draw with a 78% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.30.
Who will win AS Roma vs Real Madrid?
On our numbers AS Roma have a 22% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Real Madrid 55%.
How many goals will there be in AS Roma vs Real Madrid?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 46% likely and both teams score 63% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for AS Roma vs Real Madrid?
Our predicted score is AS Roma 0–1 Real Madrid, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is AS Roma vs Real Madrid?
AS Roma vs Real Madrid (UEFA Champions League) kicks off on Wednesday 14 October 2026 at 20:00 (West Africa Time) at Stadio Olimpico.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
