Aston Villa 66%Draw 22%Fenerbahçe 13%Expected goals 1.69 – 0.56
66%
Betarazi pick
Aston Villa to win
Good pick · fair odds 1.52 · bookmaker 1.62 · Won ✓
6/10Rating
1.62Odds
Picks by market
ResultAston Villa to win ✓66% · @1.62
Double chanceAston Villa or draw ✓87% · @1.18
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗53% · @1.60
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗81% · fair 1.24
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗8% · fair 11.88
Aston Villa vs Fenerbahçe: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Aston Villa welcome Fenerbahçe to Villa Park for a UEFA Champions League fixture on Wednesday 14 October (20:00 WAT). In the table, Aston Villa are 6th, upper half, on 9 points after 4 matches; Fenerbahçe are 19th (lower half) with 5.
Current form
Aston Villa, last 5: DWWWL Their latest outing: 2–2 draw with Brentford, at home. The attack is flying at 2.5 goals per game.
Fenerbahçe, last 5: WWWDD Their latest outing: 3–0 win over Rizespor, away. Away from home the record reads 2 won, 0 lost from 3. The attack is flying at 2.5 goals per game. Defensively they have kept 4 clean sheets in that run.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Aston Villa 1.7 xG, Fenerbahçe 0.6 xG – a total near 2.3. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 39%, GG 53%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Aston Villa 66%, draw 22%, Fenerbahçe 13%.
Lower-risk option: Aston Villa or draw (87%) at 1.18.
GG/NG: GG (53%) at 1.60.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Aston Villa to win (66%, odds 1.62 – longer than our fair 1.52, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Aston Villa 1–0 Fenerbahçe. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Aston Villa66%fair 1.52 · @1.62
Draw22%fair 4.62 · @3.90
Fenerbahçe13%fair 7.99 · @4.80
2.25Expected goals
1.69Aston Villa xG
0.56Fenerbahçe xG
53%Both score
39%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–018%
2–015%
0–011%
1–110%
3–09%
2–18%
From our goals model: Aston Villa 1.7 – 0.6 Fenerbahçe expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Aston Villa to win✓
66%
1.52
1.62 ▲
Double chance
Aston Villa or draw✓
87%
1.14
1.18
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
53%
1.89
1.60
Draw no bet
Aston Villa (draw no bet)✓
84%
1.19
–
Asian handicap
Aston Villa -0.5 (Asian handicap)✓
65%
1.54
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
66%
1.52
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
61%
1.64
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
81%
1.24
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✗
92%
1.08
–
First team to score
Aston Villa to score first✓
67%
1.49
–
Half-time result
Aston Villa ahead at half-time✓
44%
2.25
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Aston Villa / FT Aston Villa✓
41%
2.46
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
8%
11.88
–
Recent results
Aston Villa – last 6
DWWWLW
10 Oct
vs Brentford
2–2
D
2 Oct
@ Sevilla
3–1
W
19 Sep
@ Tottenham
3–2
W
16 Sep
@ Coventry
3–1
W
12 Sep
vs Nottingham Forest
1–2
L
8 Sep
@ Club Brugge KV
3–2
W
2.5Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
100%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Fenerbahçe – last 6
WWWDDL
10 Oct
@ Rizespor
3–0
W
3 Oct
@ Turan
2–0
W
20 Sep
vs Eyüpspor
8–0
W
14 Sep
@ Gaziantep FK
0–0
D
10 Sep
vs AS Roma
1–1
D
5 Sep
vs Beşiktaş
1–2
L
2.5Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
33%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Aston Villa and Fenerbahçe.
What is the prediction for Aston Villa vs Fenerbahçe?
Our pick is Aston Villa to win with a 66% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.62.
Who will win Aston Villa vs Fenerbahçe?
On our numbers Aston Villa have a 66% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Fenerbahçe 13%.
How many goals will there be in Aston Villa vs Fenerbahçe?
We expect about 2.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 39% likely and both teams score 53% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Aston Villa vs Fenerbahçe?
Our predicted score is Aston Villa 1–0 Fenerbahçe, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.3 goals in total.
When is Aston Villa vs Fenerbahçe?
Aston Villa vs Fenerbahçe (UEFA Champions League) kicks off on Wednesday 14 October 2026 at 20:00 (West Africa Time) at Villa Park.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
