FC Porto v PSV Eindhoven Prediction & Expected Goals (20 Oct) – Odds, Stats, Pick

Picks by market

ResultFC Porto to win ✗65% · @1.53

Double chanceFC Porto or draw ✗84% · @1.15

Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗55% · @1.57

GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓76% · fair 1.32

Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 10.70

FC Porto vs PSV Eindhoven: Betarazi preview and prediction

The fixture

FC Porto welcome PSV Eindhoven to Estádio do Dragão for a UEFA Champions League fixture on Tuesday 20 October (20:00 WAT). In the table, FC Porto are 26th, lower half, on 3 points after 4 matches; PSV Eindhoven are 24th (lower half) with 4. Only 1 point split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.

Current form

FC Porto, last 5: LWWWW Their latest outing: 2–3 defeat to Real Betis, away. The attack is flying at 2.3 goals per game.

PSV Eindhoven, last 5: LLWLW Their latest outing: 1–2 defeat to ADO Den Haag, away. Away from home the record reads 0 won, 3 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.7 scored, 1.3 conceded per game.

Momentum favours FC Porto, collecting 2.0 points per game to 1.2 for PSV Eindhoven.

Where the goals come from

Betarazi's ratings give FC Porto 1.8 xG, PSV Eindhoven 0.7 xG – a total near 2.5. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 46%, GG 55%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.

Markets worth a look

1X2 according to our numbers – FC Porto 65%, draw 19%, PSV Eindhoven 16%.
Lower-risk option: FC Porto or draw (84%) at 1.15.
GG/NG: GG (55%) at 1.57.

Our call before kick-off

Our pre-match call was FC Porto to win (65%, odds 1.53). Most likely score in line with that pick: FC Porto 1–0 PSV Eindhoven. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.

Result chances

FC Porto65%fair 1.55 · @1.53

Draw19%fair 5.16 · @4.40

PSV Eindhoven16%fair 6.24 · @5.00

2.50Expected goals

1.79FC Porto xG

0.71PSV Eindhoven xG

55%Both score

46%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

1–015%

2–013%

1–110%

2–19%

0–08%

3–08%

From our goals model: FC Porto 1.8 – 0.7 PSV Eindhoven expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

Market	Most likely	Chance	Fair odds	Bookmaker
Match result	FC Porto to win ✗	65%	1.55	1.53
Double chance	FC Porto or draw ✗	84%	1.19	1.15
Both teams to score	Both teams to score ✗	55%	1.81	1.57
Draw no bet	FC Porto (draw no bet) ✗	80%	1.25	–
Asian handicap	FC Porto -0.5 (Asian handicap) ✗	63%	1.59	–
Over/under 1.5 goals	Over 1.5 goals ✗	71%	1.40	–
Over/under 2.5 goals	Under 2.5 goals ✓	54%	1.84	–
Over/under 3.5 goals	Under 3.5 goals ✓	76%	1.32	–
Over/under 4.5 goals	Under 4.5 goals ✓	89%	1.12	–
First team to score	FC Porto to score first ✗	66%	1.53	–
Half-time result	FC Porto ahead at half-time ✗	44%	2.26	–
Half-time / full-time	HT FC Porto / FT FC Porto ✗	40%	2.53	–
Correct score	Correct score 2–1 ✗	9%	10.70	–

FC Porto – last 6

LWWWWL

14 Oct	@ Real Betis	2–3	L
10 Oct	@ Maritimo	2–1	W
2 Oct	@ Deportivo La Coruna	3–1	W
20 Sep	vs Benfica	3–1	W
12 Sep	@ Casa Pia	4–1	W
8 Sep	vs Manchester City	0–2	L

2.3Scored / game

1.5Conceded / game

83%Both scored

83%Over 2.5

PSV Eindhoven – last 6

LLWLWD

17 Oct	@ ADO Den Haag	1–2	L
13 Oct	@ RB Leipzig	0–1	L
9 Oct	vs Heerenveen	2–0	W
20 Sep	@ Twente	2–3	L
13 Sep	vs Sparta Rotterdam	4–1	W
10 Sep	vs Shakhtar Donetsk	1–1	D

1.7Scored / game

1.3Conceded / game

67%Both scored

50%Over 2.5

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Paris Saint Germain	4	4	0	0	+15	12
2	Real Madrid	4	4	0	0	+6	12
3	Arsenal	4	3	1	0	+5	10
4	Como	4	3	0	1	+13	9
5	Barcelona	4	3	0	1	+8	9
6	Aston Villa	4	3	0	1	+6	9
7	Manchester City	4	3	0	1	+5	9
8	Liverpool	4	3	0	1	+4	9
9	Club Brugge KV	4	3	0	1	+4	9
10	Sporting CP	4	3	0	1	+4	9
11	Real Betis	4	3	0	1	+2	9
12	Borussia Dortmund	4	3	0	1	+2	9
13	Bayern München	4	2	2	0	+7	8
14	VfB Stuttgart	4	2	1	1	+3	7
15	Inter	4	2	0	2	+2	6
16	Lask Linz	4	2	0	2	+1	6
17	Manchester United	4	2	0	2	0	6
18	Galatasaray	4	2	0	2	-1	6
19	Fenerbahçe	4	1	2	1	-5	5
20	AS Roma	4	1	1	2	+2	4
21	Shakhtar Donetsk	4	1	1	2	0	4
22	Viking	4	1	1	2	-1	4
23	Atletico Madrid	4	1	1	2	-1	4
24	PSV Eindhoven	4	1	1	2	-1	4
25	Bodo/Glimt	4	1	1	2	-5	4
26	FC Porto	4	1	0	3	-1	3
27	Napoli	4	1	0	3	-5	3
28	Villarreal	4	1	0	3	-6	3
29	AEK Athens FC	4	1	0	3	-6	3
30	RB Leipzig	4	1	0	3	-6	3
31	Sabah FA	4	1	0	3	-6	3
32	Feyenoord	4	1	0	3	-7	3
33	Lens	4	1	0	3	-12	3
34	Slavia Praha	4	0	1	3	-4	1
35	Lille	4	0	1	3	-6	1
36	Slovan Bratislava	4	0	0	4	-16	0

Team

Pts

+15

+13

-1

-5

-1

-1

-1

-5

-1

-5

-6

-6

-6

-6

-7

-12

-4

-6

-16

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for FC Porto vs PSV Eindhoven?

Our pick is FC Porto to win with a 65% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.53.

Who will win FC Porto vs PSV Eindhoven?

On our numbers FC Porto have a 65% chance of winning, the draw 19% and PSV Eindhoven 16%.

How many goals will there be in FC Porto vs PSV Eindhoven?

We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 46% likely and both teams score 55% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for FC Porto vs PSV Eindhoven?

Our predicted score is FC Porto 1–0 PSV Eindhoven, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.

When is FC Porto vs PSV Eindhoven?

FC Porto vs PSV Eindhoven (UEFA Champions League) kicks off on Tuesday 20 October 2026 at 20:00 (West Africa Time) at Estádio do Dragão.

Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.

FC Porto v PSV Eindhoven: numbers & prediction