Liverpool vs Villarreal: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Liverpool welcome Villarreal to Anfield for a UEFA Champions League fixture on Tuesday 20 October (20:00 WAT). In the table, Liverpool are 8th, upper half, on 9 points after 4 matches; Villarreal are 28th (lower half) with 3.
Current form
Liverpool, last 5: WWLWW Their latest outing: 2–1 win over Brentford, away. In their own stadium the record reads 1 won, 1 lost from 3. 2.0 goals per outing makes them dangerous.
Villarreal, last 5: DWLWW Their latest outing: 0–0 draw with Elche, at home. Goals for and against: 1.7 scored, 1.0 conceded per game.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Liverpool 3.3 xG, Villarreal 1.9 xG – a total near 5.3. That is an open game on paper: 89% for three or more goals, 70% for GG. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Liverpool 63%, draw 20%, Villarreal 17%.
GG/NG: GG (70%) at 1.55.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Both teams to score (70%, odds 1.55 – longer than our fair 1.43, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Liverpool 3–1 Villarreal. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Liverpool63%fair 1.59 · @1.50
Draw20%fair 5.01 · @4.40
Villarreal17%fair 5.90 · @5.50
5.25Expected goals
3.34Liverpool xG
1.91Villarreal xG
70%Both score
89%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
3–16%
3–26%
2–16%
2–25%
4–15%
4–25%
From our goals model: Liverpool 3.3 – 1.9 Villarreal expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Liverpool to win✓
63%
1.59
1.50
Double chance
Liverpool or draw✓
83%
1.20
1.12
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
70%
1.43
1.55 ▲
Draw no bet
Liverpool (draw no bet)✓
79%
1.27
–
Asian handicap
Liverpool -0.5 (Asian handicap)✓
66%
1.53
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
97%
1.03
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
89%
1.12
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals✓
77%
1.30
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Over 4.5 goals✓
60%
1.66
–
First team to score
Liverpool to score first
63%
1.58
–
Half-time result
Liverpool ahead at half-time✗
52%
1.93
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Liverpool / FT Liverpool✗
45%
2.23
–
Correct score
Correct score 3–1✗
6%
16.06
–
Recent results
Liverpool – last 6
WWLWWD
17 Oct
@ Brentford
2–1
W
14 Oct
@ Lask Linz
6–3
W
11 Oct
vs Manchester City
0–3
L
20 Sep
@ Bournemouth
1–0
W
15 Sep
vs Tottenham
3–1
W
12 Sep
vs Fulham
0–0
D
2.0Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
50%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Villarreal – last 6
DWLWWL
17 Oct
vs Elche
0–0
D
13 Oct
vs Napoli
3–1
W
10 Oct
@ Real Madrid
0–1
L
20 Sep
vs Levante
3–1
W
17 Sep
@ Malaga
3–1
W
14 Sep
vs Real Betis
1–2
L
1.7Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Liverpool and Villarreal.
What is the prediction for Liverpool vs Villarreal?
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 70% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.55.
Who will win Liverpool vs Villarreal?
On our numbers Liverpool have a 63% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Villarreal 17%.
How many goals will there be in Liverpool vs Villarreal?
We expect about 5.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 89% likely and both teams score 70% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Liverpool vs Villarreal?
Our predicted score is Liverpool 3–1 Villarreal, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 5.3 goals in total.
When is Liverpool vs Villarreal?
Liverpool vs Villarreal (UEFA Champions League) kicks off on Tuesday 20 October 2026 at 20:00 (West Africa Time) at Anfield.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
