VfB Stuttgart v Atletico Madrid Prediction & Expected Goals (20 Oct) – Odds, Stats, Pick

Picks by market

ResultVfB Stuttgart to win ✗40% · @3.10

Double chanceEither team to win ✗79% · @1.25

Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓66% · @1.44

GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓80% · fair 1.25

Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗8% · fair 11.78

VfB Stuttgart vs Atletico Madrid: Betarazi preview and prediction

The fixture

VfB Stuttgart welcome Atletico Madrid to MHP Arena for a UEFA Champions League fixture on Tuesday 20 October (20:00 WAT). In the table, VfB Stuttgart are 14th, upper half, on 7 points after 4 matches; Atletico Madrid are 23rd (lower half) with 4. Only 3 points split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.

Current form

VfB Stuttgart, last 5: LWWWW Their latest outing: 0–1 defeat to Hamburger SV, away. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 1 lost from 3. Scoring is no problem – 2.2 a game lately. Defensively they have kept 4 clean sheets in that run.

Atletico Madrid, last 5: WWWWW Their latest outing: 1–0 win over Espanyol, away. Away from home the record reads 3 won, 0 lost from 3. The attack is flying at 2.3 goals per game. Defensively they have kept 4 clean sheets in that run.

Momentum favours Atletico Madrid, collecting 3.0 points per game to 2.0 for VfB Stuttgart.

Where the goals come from

Betarazi's ratings give VfB Stuttgart 1.5 xG, Atletico Madrid 1.5 xG – a total near 3.0. That is an open game on paper: 58% for three or more goals, 66% for GG.

Markets worth a look

1X2 according to our numbers – VfB Stuttgart 40%, draw 21%, Atletico Madrid 39%.
GG/NG: GG (66%) at 1.44.
Price worth noting: VfB Stuttgart to win @3.10 – the bookmaker implies 32%, our ratings say 40%.

Our call before kick-off

Our pre-match call was Both teams to score (66%, odds 1.44). Most likely score in line with that pick: VfB Stuttgart 1–1 Atletico Madrid. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.

Result chances

VfB Stuttgart40%fair 2.48 · @3.10

Draw21%fair 4.80 · @3.60

Atletico Madrid39%fair 2.57 · @2.05

3.00Expected goals

1.52VfB Stuttgart xG

1.48Atletico Madrid xG

66%Both score

58%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

1–111%

2–18%

1–28%

1–08%

0–17%

2–26%

From our goals model: VfB Stuttgart 1.5 – 1.5 Atletico Madrid expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

Market	Most likely	Chance	Fair odds	Bookmaker
Match result	VfB Stuttgart to win ✗	40%	2.48	3.10 ▲
Double chance	Either team to win ✗	79%	1.26	1.25
Both teams to score	Both teams to score ✓	66%	1.52	1.44
Draw no bet	VfB Stuttgart (draw no bet)	51%	1.96	–
Asian handicap	Atletico Madrid +0.5 (Asian handicap) ✓	61%	1.63	–
Over/under 1.5 goals	Over 1.5 goals ✓	80%	1.25	–
Over/under 2.5 goals	Over 2.5 goals ✗	58%	1.73	–
Over/under 3.5 goals	Under 3.5 goals ✓	65%	1.55	–
Over/under 4.5 goals	Under 4.5 goals ✓	82%	1.23	–
First team to score	VfB Stuttgart to score first ✓	48%	2.08	–
Half-time result	Level at half-time ✗	40%	2.52	–
Half-time / full-time	HT VfB Stuttgart / FT VfB Stuttgart ✗	23%	4.40	–
Correct score	Correct score 2–1 ✗	8%	11.78	–

VfB Stuttgart – last 6

LWWWWL

17 Oct	@ Hamburger SV	0–1	L
14 Oct	@ Slovan Bratislava	3–0	W
10 Oct	@ SC Paderborn 07	2–0	W
1 Oct	vs SpVgg Greuther Fürth	5–0	W
25 Sep	vs 1. FC Heidenheim	3–0	W
19 Sep	vs Borussia Dortmund	0–1	L

2.2Scored / game

0.3Conceded / game

0%Both scored

50%Over 2.5

Atletico Madrid – last 6

WWWWWW

17 Oct	@ Espanyol	1–0	W
13 Oct	vs Manchester United	2–0	W
10 Oct	@ Alaves	2–1	W
20 Sep	vs Real Madrid	2–1	W
16 Sep	vs Osasuna	4–0	W
13 Sep	@ Real Sociedad	3–0	W

2.3Scored / game

0.3Conceded / game

33%Both scored

67%Over 2.5

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Paris Saint Germain	4	4	0	0	+15	12
2	Real Madrid	4	4	0	0	+6	12
3	Arsenal	4	3	1	0	+5	10
4	Como	4	3	0	1	+13	9
5	Barcelona	4	3	0	1	+8	9
6	Aston Villa	4	3	0	1	+6	9
7	Manchester City	4	3	0	1	+5	9
8	Liverpool	4	3	0	1	+4	9
9	Club Brugge KV	4	3	0	1	+4	9
10	Sporting CP	4	3	0	1	+4	9
11	Real Betis	4	3	0	1	+2	9
12	Borussia Dortmund	4	3	0	1	+2	9
13	Bayern München	4	2	2	0	+7	8
14	VfB Stuttgart	4	2	1	1	+3	7
15	Inter	4	2	0	2	+2	6
16	Lask Linz	4	2	0	2	+1	6
17	Manchester United	4	2	0	2	0	6
18	Galatasaray	4	2	0	2	-1	6
19	Fenerbahçe	4	1	2	1	-5	5
20	AS Roma	4	1	1	2	+2	4
21	Shakhtar Donetsk	4	1	1	2	0	4
22	Viking	4	1	1	2	-1	4
23	Atletico Madrid	4	1	1	2	-1	4
24	PSV Eindhoven	4	1	1	2	-1	4
25	Bodo/Glimt	4	1	1	2	-5	4
26	FC Porto	4	1	0	3	-1	3
27	Napoli	4	1	0	3	-5	3
28	Villarreal	4	1	0	3	-6	3
29	AEK Athens FC	4	1	0	3	-6	3
30	RB Leipzig	4	1	0	3	-6	3
31	Sabah FA	4	1	0	3	-6	3
32	Feyenoord	4	1	0	3	-7	3
33	Lens	4	1	0	3	-12	3
34	Slavia Praha	4	0	1	3	-4	1
35	Lille	4	0	1	3	-6	1
36	Slovan Bratislava	4	0	0	4	-16	0

Team

Pts

+15

+13

-1

-5

-1

-1

-1

-5

-1

-5

-6

-6

-6

-6

-7

-12

-4

-6

-16

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for VfB Stuttgart vs Atletico Madrid?

Our pick is Both teams to score with a 66% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.44.

Who will win VfB Stuttgart vs Atletico Madrid?

On our numbers VfB Stuttgart have a 40% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Atletico Madrid 39%.

How many goals will there be in VfB Stuttgart vs Atletico Madrid?

We expect about 3.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 58% likely and both teams score 66% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for VfB Stuttgart vs Atletico Madrid?

Our predicted score is VfB Stuttgart 1–1 Atletico Madrid, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.0 goals in total.

When is VfB Stuttgart vs Atletico Madrid?

VfB Stuttgart vs Atletico Madrid (UEFA Champions League) kicks off on Tuesday 20 October 2026 at 20:00 (West Africa Time) at MHP Arena.

Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.

VfB Stuttgart v Atletico Madrid: numbers & prediction