FC Porto v Napoli Prediction & Expected Goals (4 Nov) – Odds, Stats, Pick

Picks by market

ResultFC Porto to win ✓58% · @1.83

Double chanceFC Porto or draw ✓79% · @1.22

Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓61% · @1.62

GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓80% · @1.22

Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.12

FC Porto vs Napoli: Betarazi preview and prediction

The fixture

Napoli travel to face FC Porto on Wednesday 4 November in the UEFA Champions League – the ball rolls at 21:00 WAT. In the table, FC Porto are 26th, lower half, on 3 points after 4 matches; Napoli are 27th (lower half) with 3. They are level on points, so the winner climbs above the loser.

Current form

FC Porto, last 5: WWWLL Their latest outing: 4–0 win over Estoril, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.7 scored, 0.8 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.

Napoli, last 5: LWDWL Their latest outing: 0–2 defeat to Juventus, away. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 3 lost from 4. 2.0 goals per outing makes them dangerous.

Momentum favours FC Porto, collecting 2.0 points per game to 1.2 for Napoli.

Where the goals come from

Betarazi's ratings give FC Porto 2.0 xG, Napoli 1.1 xG – a total near 3.1. Both nets should be busy – over 2.5 sits at 59% and GG at 61%.

Markets worth a look

1X2 according to our numbers – FC Porto 58%, draw 21%, Napoli 21%.
Lower-risk option: FC Porto or draw (79%) at 1.22.
GG/NG: GG (61%) at 1.62.
Price worth noting: FC Porto to win @1.83 – the bookmaker implies 55%, our ratings say 58%.

Our call before kick-off

Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (80%, odds 1.22). Most likely score in line with that pick: FC Porto 2–1 Napoli. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.

Result chances

FC Porto58%fair 1.72 · @1.83

Draw21%fair 4.72 · @3.80

Napoli21%fair 4.84 · @4.20

3.15Expected goals

2.02FC Porto xG

1.13Napoli xG

61%Both score

59%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

2–110%

1–110%

2–09%

1–09%

3–17%

3–06%

From our goals model: FC Porto 2.0 – 1.1 Napoli expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

Market	Most likely	Chance	Fair odds	Bookmaker
Match result	FC Porto to win ✓	58%	1.72	1.83 ▲
Double chance	FC Porto or draw ✓	79%	1.26	1.22
Both teams to score	Both teams to score ✓	61%	1.64	1.62
Draw no bet	FC Porto (draw no bet) ✓	74%	1.36	–
Asian handicap	Napoli +1.5 (Asian handicap) ✗	65%	1.54	–
Over/under 1.5 goals	Over 1.5 goals ✓	80%	1.25	1.22
Over/under 2.5 goals	Over 2.5 goals ✓	59%	1.70	1.67
Over/under 3.5 goals	Under 3.5 goals ✗	64%	1.57	1.44
Over/under 4.5 goals	Under 4.5 goals ✗	80%	1.25	1.17
First team to score	FC Porto to score first	61%	1.63	–
Half-time result	FC Porto ahead at half-time ✗	43%	2.32	–
Half-time / full-time	HT FC Porto / FT FC Porto ✗	37%	2.72	–
Correct score	Correct score 2–1 ✗	10%	10.12	–

FC Porto – last 6

WWWLLW

31 Oct	vs Estoril	4–0	W
28 Oct	vs Academico Viseu	1–0	W
24 Oct	@ GIL Vicente	1–0	W
20 Oct	vs PSV Eindhoven	0–1	L
14 Oct	@ Real Betis	2–3	L
10 Oct	@ Maritimo	2–1	W

1.7Scored / game

0.8Conceded / game

33%Both scored

50%Over 2.5

Napoli – last 6

LWDWLL

1 Nov	@ Juventus	0–2	L
28 Oct	@ Monza	4–1	W
24 Oct	vs AS Roma	3–3	D
20 Oct	vs BodoGlimt	4–3	W
17 Oct	@ Venezia	0–1	L
13 Oct	@ Villarreal	1–3	L

2.0Scored / game

2.2Conceded / game

67%Both scored

67%Over 2.5

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Paris Saint Germain	4	4	0	0	+15	12
2	Real Madrid	4	4	0	0	+6	12
3	Arsenal	4	3	1	0	+5	10
4	Como	4	3	0	1	+13	9
5	Barcelona	4	3	0	1	+8	9
6	Aston Villa	4	3	0	1	+6	9
7	Manchester City	4	3	0	1	+5	9
8	Liverpool	4	3	0	1	+4	9
9	Club Brugge KV	4	3	0	1	+4	9
10	Sporting CP	4	3	0	1	+4	9
11	Real Betis	4	3	0	1	+2	9
12	Borussia Dortmund	4	3	0	1	+2	9
13	Bayern München	4	2	2	0	+7	8
14	VfB Stuttgart	4	2	1	1	+3	7
15	Inter	4	2	0	2	+2	6
16	Lask Linz	4	2	0	2	+1	6
17	Manchester United	4	2	0	2	0	6
18	Galatasaray	4	2	0	2	-1	6
19	Fenerbahçe	4	1	2	1	-5	5
20	AS Roma	4	1	1	2	+2	4
21	Shakhtar Donetsk	4	1	1	2	0	4
22	Viking	4	1	1	2	-1	4
23	Atletico Madrid	4	1	1	2	-1	4
24	PSV Eindhoven	4	1	1	2	-1	4
25	Bodo/Glimt	4	1	1	2	-5	4
26	FC Porto	4	1	0	3	-1	3
27	Napoli	4	1	0	3	-5	3
28	Villarreal	4	1	0	3	-6	3
29	AEK Athens FC	4	1	0	3	-6	3
30	RB Leipzig	4	1	0	3	-6	3
31	Sabah FA	4	1	0	3	-6	3
32	Feyenoord	4	1	0	3	-7	3
33	Lens	4	1	0	3	-12	3
34	Slavia Praha	4	0	1	3	-4	1
35	Lille	4	0	1	3	-6	1
36	Slovan Bratislava	4	0	0	4	-16	0

Team

Pts

+15

+13

-1

-5

-1

-1

-1

-5

-1

-5

-6

-6

-6

-6

-7

-12

-4

-6

-16

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for FC Porto vs Napoli?

Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 80% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.

Who will win FC Porto vs Napoli?

On our numbers FC Porto have a 58% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Napoli 21%.

How many goals will there be in FC Porto vs Napoli?

We expect about 3.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 59% likely and both teams score 61% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for FC Porto vs Napoli?

Our predicted score is FC Porto 2–1 Napoli, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.1 goals in total.

When is FC Porto vs Napoli?

FC Porto vs Napoli (UEFA Champions League) kicks off on Wednesday 4 November 2026 at 21:00 (West Africa Time).

Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.

FC Porto v Napoli: numbers & prediction