Value bet: Draw @ 3.56 – our chance 51% vs 28% implied by the price (edge +83%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultDraw ✓51% · @3.56
Double chanceAS Roma or draw ✓81% · fair 1.23
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗53% · fair 1.88
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓72% · @1.45
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–0 ✗9% · fair 10.64
Fenerbahçe vs AS Roma: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Thursday 10 September the UEFA Champions League brings Fenerbahçe against AS Roma at Chobani Stadium Fenerbahce Sukru Saracoglu. Kick-off: 17:45 WAT. In the table, Fenerbahçe are 19th, lower half, on 5 points after 4 matches; AS Roma are 20th (lower half) with 4. Only 1 point split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
Fenerbahçe, last 5: LWWWD Their latest outing: 1–2 defeat to Beşiktaş, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 1 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.8 scored, 1.3 conceded per game.
AS Roma, last 5: WWWDL Their latest outing: 2–1 win over Atalanta, at home. Away from home the record reads 2 won, 1 lost from 4. The attack is flying at 2.7 goals per game.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Fenerbahçe 1.1 xG, AS Roma 1.3 xG – a total near 2.4. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 49%, GG 47%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Fenerbahçe 19%, draw 51%, AS Roma 30%.
Price worth noting: Draw @3.56 – the bookmaker implies 28%, our ratings say 51%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (72%, odds 1.45 – longer than our fair 1.38, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Fenerbahçe 1–1 AS Roma. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Fenerbahçe19%fair 5.30 · @3.39
Draw51%fair 1.95 · @3.56
AS Roma30%fair 3.35 · @2.18
2.36Expected goals
1.07Fenerbahçe xG
1.29AS Roma xG
47%Both score
49%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–113%
0–112%
1–010%
0–09%
1–28%
0–28%
From our goals model: Fenerbahçe 1.1 – 1.3 AS Roma expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Draw✓
51%
1.95
3.56 ▲
Double chance
AS Roma or draw✓
81%
1.23
–
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✗
53%
1.88
–
Draw no bet
AS Roma (draw no bet)
61%
1.63
–
Asian handicap
Fenerbahçe +1 (Asian handicap)✓
76%
1.32
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
72%
1.39
1.25
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
51%
1.95
2.16 ▲
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
72%
1.38
1.45
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
91%
1.10
–
First team to score
AS Roma to score first✓
50%
2.02
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
45%
2.20
–
Half-time / full-time
HT AS Roma / FT AS Roma✗
24%
4.15
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–0✗
9%
10.64
–
Recent results
Fenerbahçe – last 6
LWWWDL
5 Sep
vs Beşiktaş
1–2
L
30 Aug
@ Samsunspor
2–0
W
26 Aug
@ Lyon
2–1
W
22 Aug
vs Konyaspor
4–2
W
18 Aug
vs Lyon
1–1
D
15 Aug
@ Gençlerbirliği S.K.
1–2
L
1.8Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
83%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
AS Roma – last 6
WWWDLW
5 Sep
vs Atalanta
2–1
W
31 Aug
@ Lecce
4–0
W
24 Aug
vs Fiorentina
4–0
W
15 Aug
@ Borussia Dortmund
2–2
D
8 Aug
@ Brighton
0–3
L
4 Aug
@ Newport County
4–1
W
2.7Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
50%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Fenerbahçe and AS Roma.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 72% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.45.
Who will win Fenerbahçe vs AS Roma?
On our numbers Fenerbahçe have a 19% chance of winning, the draw 51% and AS Roma 30%.
How many goals will there be in Fenerbahçe vs AS Roma?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 49% likely and both teams score 47% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Fenerbahçe vs AS Roma?
Our predicted score is Fenerbahçe 1–1 AS Roma, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is Fenerbahçe vs AS Roma?
Fenerbahçe vs AS Roma (UEFA Champions League) kicks off on Thursday 10 September 2026 at 17:45 (West Africa Time) at Chobani Stadium Fenerbahce Sukru Saracoglu.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
