AC Milan 30%Draw 51%Benfica 19%Expected goals 2.23 – 1.94
81%
Betarazi pick
AC Milan or draw
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.23 · bookmaker 1.30 · Lost ✗
9/10Rating
1.30Odds
X
Value bet: Draw @ 3.40 – our chance 51% vs 29% implied by the price (edge +75%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultDraw ✗51% · @3.40
Double chanceAC Milan or draw ✗81% · @1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗65% · @1.62
GoalsOver 2.5 goals ✗79% · fair 1.27
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–2 ✗7% · fair 13.83
AC Milan vs Benfica: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Wednesday 16 September the UEFA Europa League brings AC Milan against Benfica at San Siro/Giuseppe Meazza. Kick-off: 20:00 WAT. In the table, AC Milan are 28th, lower half, on 3 points after 4 matches; Benfica are 1st (leading the league) with 12.
Current form
AC Milan, last 5: DDWWW Their latest outing: 2–2 draw with Lazio, away. Goals for and against: 1.8 scored, 1.5 conceded per game.
Benfica, last 5: WWWWW Their latest outing: 3–1 win over GIL Vicente, at home. Away from home the record reads 3 won, 0 lost from 3. Scoring is no problem – 3.0 a game lately.
Momentum favours Benfica, collecting 3.0 points per game to 1.8 for AC Milan.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give AC Milan 2.2 xG, Benfica 1.9 xG – a total near 4.2. That is an open game on paper: 79% for three or more goals, 65% for GG. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – AC Milan 30%, draw 51%, Benfica 19%.
Lower-risk option: AC Milan or draw (81%) at 1.30.
GG/NG: GG (65%) at 1.62.
Price worth noting: Draw @3.40 – the bookmaker implies 29%, our ratings say 51%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was AC Milan or draw (81%, odds 1.30 – longer than our fair 1.23, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: AC Milan 2–1 Benfica. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
AC Milan30%fair 3.36 · @2.10
Draw51%fair 1.95 · @3.40
Benfica19%fair 5.29 · @3.25
4.17Expected goals
2.23AC Milan xG
1.94Benfica xG
65%Both score
79%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
2–17%
2–27%
1–17%
1–26%
3–16%
3–25%
From our goals model: AC Milan 2.2 – 1.9 Benfica expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Draw✗
51%
1.95
3.40 ▲
Double chance
AC Milan or draw✗
81%
1.23
1.30 ▲
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
65%
1.53
1.62 ▲
Draw no bet
AC Milan (draw no bet)✗
61%
1.63
–
Asian handicap
Benfica +1 (Asian handicap)✓
67%
1.49
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
92%
1.09
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
79%
1.27
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals✗
60%
1.67
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
60%
1.68
–
First team to score
AC Milan to score first✗
53%
1.90
–
Half-time result
AC Milan ahead at half-time✗
37%
2.69
–
Half-time / full-time
HT AC Milan / FT AC Milan✗
28%
3.52
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–2✗
7%
13.83
–
Recent results
AC Milan – last 6
DDWWWL
12 Sep
@ Lazio
2–2
D
6 Sep
@ Juventus
1–1
D
28 Aug
vs Venezia
2–0
W
23 Aug
@ Torino
2–1
W
15 Aug
@ Manchester United
4–2
W
8 Aug
@ Chelsea
0–3
L
1.8Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Benfica – last 6
WWWWWW
13 Sep
vs GIL Vicente
3–1
W
9 Sep
@ Moreirense
4–0
W
5 Sep
@ Maritimo
3–0
W
31 Aug
vs Estoril
2–1
W
27 Aug
@ Aarhus
3–1
W
20 Aug
vs Aarhus
3–1
W
3.0Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
67%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between AC Milan and Benfica.
Our pick is AC Milan or draw with a 81% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.30.
Who will win AC Milan vs Benfica?
On our numbers AC Milan have a 30% chance of winning, the draw 51% and Benfica 19%.
How many goals will there be in AC Milan vs Benfica?
We expect about 4.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 79% likely and both teams score 65% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for AC Milan vs Benfica?
Our predicted score is AC Milan 2–1 Benfica, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 4.2 goals in total.
When is AC Milan vs Benfica?
AC Milan vs Benfica (UEFA Europa League) kicks off on Wednesday 16 September 2026 at 20:00 (West Africa Time) at San Siro/Giuseppe Meazza.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
