Good pick · fair odds 1.51 · bookmaker 1.50 · Lost ✗
6/10Rating
1.50Odds
2
Value bet: Atalanta to win @ 3.10 – our chance 37% vs 32% implied by the price (edge +15%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultAjax to win ✓42% · @2.10
Double chanceEither team to win ✓79% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗66% · @1.50
GoalsOver 2.5 goals ✗76% · fair 1.31
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗8% · fair 13.25
Ajax vs Atalanta: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Ajax welcome Atalanta to Johan Cruijff Arena for a UEFA Europa Conference League fixture on Thursday 22 October (20:00 WAT). In the table, Ajax are 11th, upper half, on 6 points after 3 matches; Atalanta are 16th (upper half) with 4. Only 2 points split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
Ajax, last 5: WLDDW Their latest outing: 5–2 win over Groningen, away. In their own stadium the record reads 1 won, 0 lost from 3. 3.2 goals per outing makes them dangerous.
Atalanta, last 5: LWWLL Their latest outing: 2–3 defeat to AC Milan, away. Away from home the record reads 0 won, 3 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.7 scored, 1.8 conceded per game.
Momentum favours Ajax, collecting 1.8 points per game to 1.0 for Atalanta.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Ajax 2.1 xG, Atalanta 1.9 xG – a total near 4.0. That is an open game on paper: 76% for three or more goals, 66% for GG. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Ajax 42%, draw 21%, Atalanta 37%.
GG/NG: GG (66%) at 1.50.
Price worth noting: Atalanta to win @3.10 – the bookmaker implies 32%, our ratings say 37%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Both teams to score (66%, odds 1.50). Most likely score in line with that pick: Ajax 2–1 Atalanta. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Ajax42%fair 2.39 · @2.10
Draw21%fair 4.77 · @3.60
Atalanta37%fair 2.69 · @3.10
4.00Expected goals
2.06Ajax xG
1.94Atalanta xG
66%Both score
76%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
2–18%
1–17%
2–27%
1–27%
3–15%
3–25%
From our goals model: Ajax 2.1 – 1.9 Atalanta expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Ajax to win✓
42%
2.39
2.10
Double chance
Either team to win✓
79%
1.27
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
66%
1.51
1.50
Draw no bet
Ajax (draw no bet)✓
53%
1.89
–
Asian handicap
Atalanta +1 (Asian handicap)✗
71%
1.41
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
91%
1.10
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
76%
1.31
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals✗
57%
1.77
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
63%
1.59
–
First team to score
Ajax to score first✓
51%
1.98
–
Half-time result
Ajax ahead at half-time✗
35%
2.87
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Ajax / FT Ajax✗
26%
3.86
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
8%
13.25
–
Recent results
Ajax – last 6
WLDDWW
18 Oct
@ Groningen
5–2
W
15 Oct
@ HNK Hajduk Split
1–2
L
10 Oct
vs NEC Nijmegen
1–1
D
19 Sep
vs Excelsior
2–2
D
15 Sep
vs Willem II
5–1
W
12 Sep
@ Fortuna Sittard
5–1
W
3.2Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
100%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Atalanta – last 6
LWWLLL
18 Oct
@ AC Milan
2–3
L
15 Oct
vs Pafos
3–1
W
12 Oct
vs Venezia
3–1
W
20 Sep
@ Juventus
0–2
L
12 Sep
vs Cagliari
1–2
L
5 Sep
@ AS Roma
1–2
L
1.7Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
83%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Ajax and Atalanta.
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 66% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.50.
Who will win Ajax vs Atalanta?
On our numbers Ajax have a 42% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Atalanta 37%.
How many goals will there be in Ajax vs Atalanta?
We expect about 4.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 76% likely and both teams score 66% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Ajax vs Atalanta?
Our predicted score is Ajax 2–1 Atalanta, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 4.0 goals in total.
When is Ajax vs Atalanta?
Ajax vs Atalanta (UEFA Europa Conference League) kicks off on Thursday 22 October 2026 at 20:00 (West Africa Time) at Johan Cruijff Arena.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
