Monaco vs SC Freiburg: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
SC Freiburg travel to face Monaco on Thursday 22 October in the UEFA Europa Conference League, with Stade Louis II the venue – the ball rolls at 20:00 WAT. In the table, Monaco are 4th, among the top four, on 9 points after 3 matches; SC Freiburg are 14th (upper half) with 6. Only 3 points split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
Monaco, last 5: LWDWD Their latest outing: 0–1 defeat to Lorient, away. Goals for and against: 1.5 scored, 1.2 conceded per game.
SC Freiburg, last 5: LWWWD Their latest outing: 1–2 defeat to Bayer Leverkusen, away. The attack is flying at 2.8 goals per game.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Monaco 2.3 xG, SC Freiburg 2.2 xG – a total near 4.5. That is an open game on paper: 83% for three or more goals, 70% for GG. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Monaco 43%, draw 21%, SC Freiburg 36%.
GG/NG: GG (70%) at 1.62.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Both teams to score (70%, odds 1.62 – longer than our fair 1.43, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Monaco 2–2 SC Freiburg. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Monaco43%fair 2.35 · @2.20
Draw21%fair 4.72 · @3.50
SC Freiburg36%fair 2.75 · @2.90
4.50Expected goals
2.33Monaco xG
2.17SC Freiburg xG
70%Both score
83%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
2–27%
2–17%
1–26%
1–16%
3–26%
2–35%
From our goals model: Monaco 2.3 – 2.2 SC Freiburg expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Monaco to win✓
43%
2.35
2.20
Double chance
Either team to win✓
79%
1.27
1.29
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
70%
1.43
1.62 ▲
Draw no bet
Monaco (draw no bet)✓
54%
1.85
–
Asian handicap
SC Freiburg +1 (Asian handicap)✗
69%
1.45
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
94%
1.07
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
83%
1.21
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals✗
66%
1.52
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
53%
1.88
–
First team to score
Monaco to score first✓
51%
1.95
–
Half-time result
Monaco ahead at half-time✓
36%
2.74
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Monaco / FT Monaco✓
27%
3.68
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
7%
15.25
–
Recent results
Monaco – last 6
LWDWDW
18 Oct
@ Lorient
0–1
L
15 Oct
@ CSKA Sofia
2–1
W
10 Oct
vs Toulouse
2–2
D
18 Sep
vs Lens
2–1
W
12 Sep
@ Strasbourg
1–1
D
4 Sep
@ Paris Saint Germain
2–1
W
1.5Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
83%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
SC Freiburg – last 6
LWWWDW
18 Oct
@ Bayer Leverkusen
1–2
L
15 Oct
vs FK Jablonec
3–2
W
11 Oct
vs FC Schalke 04
2–1
W
3 Oct
vs FC Luzern
4–2
W
19 Sep
@ Eintracht Frankfurt
2–2
D
12 Sep
vs Borussia Mönchengladbach
5–0
W
2.8Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
83%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Monaco and SC Freiburg.
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 70% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.62.
Who will win Monaco vs SC Freiburg?
On our numbers Monaco have a 43% chance of winning, the draw 21% and SC Freiburg 36%.
How many goals will there be in Monaco vs SC Freiburg?
We expect about 4.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 83% likely and both teams score 70% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Monaco vs SC Freiburg?
Our predicted score is Monaco 2–2 SC Freiburg, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 4.5 goals in total.
When is Monaco vs SC Freiburg?
Monaco vs SC Freiburg (UEFA Europa Conference League) kicks off on Thursday 22 October 2026 at 20:00 (West Africa Time) at Stade Louis II.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
