Good pick · fair odds 1.61 · bookmaker 1.62 · Lost ✗
5/10Rating
1.62Odds
Picks by market
ResultPafos to win ✗62% · @1.62
Double chancePafos or draw ✓86% · @1.17
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓57% · @1.75
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓83% · fair 1.21
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.13
Pafos vs Riga: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Pafos welcome Riga to Stelios Kyriakidis for a UEFA Europa Conference League fixture on Thursday 22 October (17:45 WAT). In the table, Pafos are 30th, lower half, on 1 points after 3 matches; Riga are 19th (lower half) with 3. Only 2 points split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
Pafos, last 5: DLWLW Their latest outing: 0–0 draw with Apoel Nicosia, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 0 won, 1 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.8 goals a game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Riga, last 5: WDWWW Their latest outing: 2–1 win over Super Nova, at home. Away from home the record reads 4 won, 0 lost from 4. Goals for and against: 1.5 scored, 0.5 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Momentum favours Riga, collecting 2.7 points per game to 1.3 for Pafos.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Pafos 2.2 xG, Riga 1.0 xG – a total near 3.2. Both nets should be busy – over 2.5 sits at 62% and GG at 57%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Pafos 62%, draw 24%, Riga 14%.
Lower-risk option: Pafos or draw (86%) at 1.17.
GG/NG: GG (57%) at 1.75.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Pafos to win (62%, odds 1.62). Most likely score in line with that pick: Pafos 2–1 Riga. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Pafos62%fair 1.61 · @1.62
Draw24%fair 4.24 · @3.80
Riga14%fair 6.95 · @5.00
3.20Expected goals
2.19Pafos xG
1.01Riga xG
57%Both score
62%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
2–110%
2–010%
1–19%
1–09%
3–17%
3–07%
From our goals model: Pafos 2.2 – 1.0 Riga expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Pafos to win✗
62%
1.61
1.62
Double chance
Pafos or draw✓
86%
1.17
1.17
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
57%
1.75
1.75
Draw no bet
Pafos (draw no bet)
81%
1.23
–
Asian handicap
Pafos -0.5 (Asian handicap)✗
64%
1.56
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
83%
1.21
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
62%
1.61
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
60%
1.66
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
78%
1.28
–
First team to score
Pafos to score first
66%
1.53
–
Half-time result
Pafos ahead at half-time✗
47%
2.12
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Pafos / FT Pafos✗
42%
2.40
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
10%
10.13
–
Recent results
Pafos – last 6
DLWLWD
19 Oct
vs Apoel Nicosia
0–0
D
15 Oct
@ Atalanta
1–3
L
11 Oct
@ Anorthosis
3–1
W
18 Sep
vs AEL
0–2
L
13 Sep
@ AEK Larnaca
1–0
W
7 Sep
vs Olympiakos
0–0
D
0.8Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Riga – last 6
WDWWWW
18 Oct
vs Super Nova
2–1
W
15 Oct
vs Kairat Almaty
1–1
D
10 Oct
@ Tukums
2–0
W
3 Oct
@ Aris
2–1
W
19 Sep
@ FS Jelgava
1–0
W
15 Sep
@ Super Nova
1–0
W
1.5Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Pafos and Riga.
Our pick is Pafos to win with a 62% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.62.
Who will win Pafos vs Riga?
On our numbers Pafos have a 62% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Riga 14%.
How many goals will there be in Pafos vs Riga?
We expect about 3.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 62% likely and both teams score 57% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Pafos vs Riga?
Our predicted score is Pafos 2–1 Riga, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.2 goals in total.
When is Pafos vs Riga?
Pafos vs Riga (UEFA Europa Conference League) kicks off on Thursday 22 October 2026 at 17:45 (West Africa Time) at Stelios Kyriakidis.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
