Value bet: FC Thun to win @ 2.75 – our chance 48% vs 36% implied by the price (edge +33%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultFC Thun to win ✗48% · @2.75
Double chanceEither team to win ✓78% · @1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗68% · @1.53
GoalsOver 2.5 goals ✗76% · fair 1.31
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗8% · fair 12.38
FC Thun vs HNK Hajduk Split: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
FC Thun welcome HNK Hajduk Split to Stockhorn Arena for a UEFA Europa Conference League fixture on Thursday 22 October (20:00 WAT). In the table, FC Thun are 20th, lower half, on 3 points after 3 matches; HNK Hajduk Split are 13th (upper half) with 6. Only 3 points split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
FC Thun, last 5: DLLWW Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with FC Schaffhausen, away. Goals for and against: 1.5 scored, 1.8 conceded per game.
HNK Hajduk Split, last 5: WWWLW Their latest outing: 1–0 win over NK Varazdin, at home. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 0.8 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Momentum favours HNK Hajduk Split, collecting 2.5 points per game to 1.2 for FC Thun.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give FC Thun 2.2 xG, HNK Hajduk Split 1.8 xG – a total near 4.0. That is an open game on paper: 76% for three or more goals, 68% for GG.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – FC Thun 48%, draw 22%, HNK Hajduk Split 30%.
GG/NG: GG (68%) at 1.53.
Price worth noting: FC Thun to win @2.75 – the bookmaker implies 36%, our ratings say 48%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Both teams to score (68%, odds 1.53 – longer than our fair 1.47, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: FC Thun 2–1 HNK Hajduk Split. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
FC Thun48%fair 2.07 · @2.75
Draw22%fair 4.61 · @3.40
HNK Hajduk Split30%fair 3.32 · @2.40
4.00Expected goals
2.24FC Thun xG
1.76HNK Hajduk Split xG
68%Both score
76%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
2–18%
1–17%
2–27%
1–26%
3–16%
3–25%
From our goals model: FC Thun 2.2 – 1.8 HNK Hajduk Split expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
FC Thun to win✗
48%
2.07
2.75 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
78%
1.28
1.30
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
68%
1.47
1.53
Draw no bet
FC Thun (draw no bet)✗
62%
1.62
–
Asian handicap
HNK Hajduk Split +1 (Asian handicap)✓
63%
1.57
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
91%
1.10
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
76%
1.31
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals✗
57%
1.77
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
63%
1.59
–
First team to score
FC Thun to score first✗
55%
1.82
–
Half-time result
FC Thun ahead at half-time✗
39%
2.55
–
Half-time / full-time
HT FC Thun / FT FC Thun✗
31%
3.24
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
8%
12.38
–
Recent results
FC Thun – last 6
DLLWWL
18 Oct
@ FC Schaffhausen
1–1
D
15 Oct
@ Twente
0–1
L
10 Oct
@ FC Zurich
2–4
L
3 Oct
vs SC Kriens
2–0
W
20 Sep
@ FC Vaduz
2–1
W
16 Sep
vs Servette FC
2–4
L
1.5Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
67%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
HNK Hajduk Split – last 6
WWWLWW
18 Oct
vs NK Varazdin
1–0
W
15 Oct
vs Ajax
2–1
W
10 Oct
vs Dinamo Zagreb
2–1
W
20 Sep
@ HNK Rijeka
0–3
L
13 Sep
vs NK Slaven Belupo
1–0
W
8 Sep
@ Vardarac
2–0
W
1.3Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
33%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between FC Thun and HNK Hajduk Split.
What is the prediction for FC Thun vs HNK Hajduk Split?
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 68% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.53.
Who will win FC Thun vs HNK Hajduk Split?
On our numbers FC Thun have a 48% chance of winning, the draw 22% and HNK Hajduk Split 30%.
How many goals will there be in FC Thun vs HNK Hajduk Split?
We expect about 4.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 76% likely and both teams score 68% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for FC Thun vs HNK Hajduk Split?
Our predicted score is FC Thun 2–1 HNK Hajduk Split, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 4.0 goals in total.
When is FC Thun vs HNK Hajduk Split?
FC Thun vs HNK Hajduk Split (UEFA Europa Conference League) kicks off on Thursday 22 October 2026 at 20:00 (West Africa Time) at Stockhorn Arena.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
