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BetaraziFootball predictions · read by the numbers

VfL Bochum v FSV Mainz 05: numbers & prediction

DFB Pokal · Germany · Vonovia Ruhrstadion

VfL Bochum

DLLLD
2–0
FT

FSV Mainz 05

LWLWW
VfL Bochum 13%Draw 21%FSV Mainz 05 66% Expected goals 2.12 – 3.88
73%
Betarazi pick

Both teams to score

Strong pick · fair odds 1.37 · bookmaker 1.57 · Lost ✗

8/10Rating
1.57Odds
2

Value bet: FSV Mainz 05 to win @ 1.65 – our chance 66% vs 61% implied by the price (edge +9%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗

Picks by market

ResultFSV Mainz 05 to win ✗66% · @1.65
Double chanceFSV Mainz 05 or draw ✗87% · @1.18
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗73% · @1.57
GoalsOver 3.5 goals ✗85% · fair 1.18
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–3 ✗5% · fair 18.45

VfL Bochum vs FSV Mainz 05: Betarazi preview and prediction

The fixture

VfL Bochum welcome FSV Mainz 05 to Vonovia Ruhrstadion for a DFB Pokal fixture on Tuesday 27 October (18:00 WAT).

Current form

VfL Bochum, last 5: DLLLD Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with VfL Wolfsburg, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 0 won, 1 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.8 goals a game.

FSV Mainz 05, last 5: LWLWW Their latest outing: 2–3 defeat to Werder Bremen, at home. Away from home the record reads 3 won, 0 lost from 3. 2.3 goals per outing makes them dangerous.

Momentum favours FSV Mainz 05, collecting 1.5 points per game to 0.8 for VfL Bochum.

Where the goals come from

Betarazi's ratings give VfL Bochum 2.1 xG, FSV Mainz 05 3.9 xG – a total near 6.0. Both nets should be busy – over 2.5 sits at 94% and GG at 73%.

Markets worth a look

  • 1X2 according to our numbers – VfL Bochum 13%, draw 21%, FSV Mainz 05 66%.
  • Lower-risk option: FSV Mainz 05 or draw (87%) at 1.18.
  • GG/NG: GG (73%) at 1.57.
  • Price worth noting: FSV Mainz 05 to win @1.65 – the bookmaker implies 61%, our ratings say 66%.

Our call before kick-off

Our pre-match call was Both teams to score (73%, odds 1.57 – longer than our fair 1.37, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: VfL Bochum 2–3 FSV Mainz 05. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.

Result chances

VfL Bochum13%fair 7.46 · @4.60
Draw21%fair 4.81 · @3.80
FSV Mainz 0566%fair 1.52 · @1.65
6.00Expected goals
2.12VfL Bochum xG
3.88FSV Mainz 05 xG
73%Both score
94%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

2–35%
2–45%
1–35%
1–45%
2–24%
2–54%

From our goals model: VfL Bochum 2.1 – 3.9 FSV Mainz 05 expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

MarketMost likelyChanceFair oddsBookmaker
Match resultFSV Mainz 05 to win ✗66%1.521.65 ▲
Double chanceFSV Mainz 05 or draw ✗87%1.151.18
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score ✗73%1.371.57 ▲
Draw no betFSV Mainz 05 (draw no bet) ✗83%1.20–
Asian handicapFSV Mainz 05 -1 (Asian handicap) ✗64%1.57–
Over/under 1.5 goalsOver 1.5 goals ✓98%1.02–
Over/under 2.5 goalsOver 2.5 goals ✗94%1.07–
Over/under 3.5 goalsOver 3.5 goals ✗85%1.18–
Over/under 4.5 goalsOver 4.5 goals ✗71%1.40–
First team to scoreFSV Mainz 05 to score first ✗65%1.55–
Half-time resultFSV Mainz 05 ahead at half-time ✗55%1.81–
Half-time / full-timeHT FSV Mainz 05 / FT FSV Mainz 05 ✗49%2.05–
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–3 ✗5%18.45–

Recent results

VfL Bochum – last 6

DLLLDW
23 Octvs VfL Wolfsburg1–1D
17 Oct@ 1. FC Kaiserslautern0–2L
11 Octvs Arminia Bielefeld0–1L
20 Sep@ Hannover 961–2L
12 Sepvs SpVgg Greuther Fürth1–1D
5 Sep@ Dynamo Dresden2–1W
0.8Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
67%Both scored
33%Over 2.5

FSV Mainz 05 – last 6

LWLWWL
24 Octvs Werder Bremen2–3L
17 Oct@ FC Schalke 041–0W
10 Octvs Bayer Leverkusen3–4L
3 Oct@ Waldhof Mannheim3–0W
19 Sep@ Borussia Mönchengladbach4–3W
12 Sepvs Eintracht Frankfurt1–3L
2.3Scored / game
2.2Conceded / game
67%Both scored
83%Over 2.5

Head to head

No previous meetings on record between VfL Bochum and FSV Mainz 05.

VfL Bochum vs FSV Mainz 05 head-to-head page →

More DFB Pokal predictions

League hub
FT SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach2 FC Augsburg4 113%7.00X17%5.50270%1.30 0.8–2.2xG 2FC Augsburg to win 70%@1.30 ✓
FT Hamburger SV1 Eintracht Frankfurt3 132%2.90X21%3.50247%2.15 3.2–3.8xG GGBoth teams to score 77%@1.40 ✓
FT Rot-Weiß Essen1 RB Leipzig2 110%13.00X20%7.00270%1.17 1.2–2.8xG GGBoth teams to score 60%@1.75 ✓
FT Borussia Mönchengladbach2 Karlsruher SC0 167%1.36X17%4.80216%7.00 2.7–1.3xG 1Borussia Mönchengladbach to win 67%@1.36 ✓
FT Borussia Dortmund3 Werder Bremen2 171%1.36X20%4.8029%7.00 2.9–1.1xG 1Borussia Dortmund to win 71%@1.36 ✓
FT SV Elversberg0 SV Darmstadt 982 169%1.40X17%4.80214%6.00 2.5–1.0xG 1SV Elversberg to win 69%@1.40 ✗
FT 1. FC Köln5 Union Berlin0 161%1.80X21%3.60217%3.80 2.9–1.6xG 1X1. FC Köln or draw 83%@1.25 ✓

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for VfL Bochum vs FSV Mainz 05?

Our pick is Both teams to score with a 73% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.57.

Who will win VfL Bochum vs FSV Mainz 05?

On our numbers VfL Bochum have a 13% chance of winning, the draw 21% and FSV Mainz 05 66%.

How many goals will there be in VfL Bochum vs FSV Mainz 05?

We expect about 6.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 94% likely and both teams score 73% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for VfL Bochum vs FSV Mainz 05?

Our predicted score is VfL Bochum 2–3 FSV Mainz 05, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 6.0 goals in total.

When is VfL Bochum vs FSV Mainz 05?

VfL Bochum vs FSV Mainz 05 (DFB Pokal) kicks off on Tuesday 27 October 2026 at 18:00 (West Africa Time) at Vonovia Ruhrstadion.

Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.