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BetaraziFootball predictions · read by the numbers

Bury v Workington: numbers & prediction

FA Cup · England

Bury

WWLWL
5–1
FT

Workington

WWWWW
Bury 62%Draw 21%Workington 17% Expected goals 2.77 – 1.49
69%
Betarazi pick

Over 2.5 goals

Strong pick · fair odds 1.45 · bookmaker 1.62 · Won ✓

7/10Rating
1.62Odds

Picks by market

ResultBury to win ✓62% · @1.73
Double chanceBury or draw ✓83% · @1.18
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓61% · fair 1.64
GoalsOver 2.5 goals ✓69% · @1.62
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗8% · fair 12.39

Bury vs Workington: Betarazi preview and prediction

The fixture

On Saturday 19 September the FA Cup brings Bury against Workington. Kick-off: 15:00 WAT.

Current form

Bury, last 5: WWLWL Their latest outing: 4–0 win over AFC Emley, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 3 won, 1 lost from 4. Scoring is no problem – 3.5 a game lately. Defensively they have kept 4 clean sheets in that run.

Workington, last 5: WWWWW Their latest outing: 3–1 win over Ilkeston Town, at home. Scoring is no problem – 2.8 a game lately.

Momentum favours Workington, collecting 3.0 points per game to 2.0 for Bury.

Where the goals come from

Betarazi's ratings give Bury 2.8 xG, Workington 1.5 xG – a total near 4.3. That is an open game on paper: 69% for three or more goals, 61% for GG. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.

Markets worth a look

  • 1X2 according to our numbers – Bury 62%, draw 21%, Workington 17%.
  • Lower-risk option: Bury or draw (83%) at 1.18.

Our call before kick-off

Our pre-match call was Over 2.5 goals (69%, odds 1.62 – longer than our fair 1.45, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Bury 2–1 Workington. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.

Result chances

Bury62%fair 1.60 · @1.73
Draw21%fair 4.80 · @3.70
Workington17%fair 5.99 · @3.80
4.26Expected goals
2.77Bury xG
1.49Workington xG
61%Both score
69%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

2–18%
3–17%
2–26%
1–16%
3–26%
2–05%

From our goals model: Bury 2.8 – 1.5 Workington expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

MarketMost likelyChanceFair oddsBookmaker
Match resultBury to win ✓62%1.601.73 ▲
Double chanceBury or draw ✓83%1.201.18
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score ✓61%1.64–
Draw no betBury (draw no bet) ✓79%1.27–
Asian handicapBury -0.5 (Asian handicap) ✓64%1.55–
Over/under 1.5 goalsOver 1.5 goals ✓93%1.08–
Over/under 2.5 goalsOver 2.5 goals ✓69%1.451.62 ▲
Over/under 3.5 goalsOver 3.5 goals ✓62%1.62–
Over/under 4.5 goalsUnder 4.5 goals ✗58%1.73–
First team to scoreBury to score first64%1.56–
Half-time resultBury ahead at half-time ✓50%2.01–
Half-time / full-timeHT Bury / FT Bury ✓43%2.32–
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗8%12.39–

Recent results

Bury – last 6

WWLWLW
12 Sepvs AFC Emley4–0W
5 Sepvs Wythenshawe Amateurs8–0W
31 Aug@ Hyde United1–2L
29 Augvs Ilkeston Town7–0W
25 Augvs Lancaster City0–1L
22 Aug@ Gainsborough Trinity1–0W
3.5Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
17%Both scored
67%Over 2.5

Workington – last 6

WWWWWW
12 Sepvs Ilkeston Town3–1W
5 Sepvs Marske United3–0W
31 Aug@ Lancaster City3–0W
29 Augvs Leek Town3–2W
25 Augvs Rylands3–2W
22 Aug@ United of Manchester2–1W
2.8Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
67%Both scored
100%Over 2.5

Head to head

No previous meetings on record between Bury and Workington.

Bury vs Workington head-to-head page →

More FA Cup predictions

League hub
FT Bedford Town2 King's Lynn Town1 145%2.15X22%3.30234%2.90 1.6–1.3xG O2.5Over 2.5 goals 55%@1.73 ✓
FT Brackley Town1 AFC Portchester0 166%1.28X17%4.75217%8.00 2.2–1.0xG 1Brackley Town to win 66%@1.28 ✓
FT Buxton1 Ashton United0 170%1.36X20%4.50210%6.25 3.5–1.6xG O2.5Over 2.5 goals 74%@1.57 ✗
FT United of Manchester4 Ossett United1 172%1.28X19%4.7529%8.00 2.5–0.9xG 1United of Manchester to win 72%@1.28 ✓
FT Gorleston3 Bury Town4 112%5.00X23%4.00265%1.50 1.4–2.9xG O2.5Over 2.5 goals 72%@1.50 ✓
FT Leamington1 Gainsborough Trinity1 140%2.50X22%3.30238%2.45 2.0–2.0xG O2.5Over 2.5 goals 66%@1.67 ✗
FT Merthyr Town1 Truro City1 138%2.55X22%3.25240%2.40 1.3–1.4xG U2.5Under 2.5 goals 50%@1.90 ✓
FT Redcar Athletic1 Macclesfield2 121%3.90X15%3.90263%1.67 0.6–1.4xG 2Macclesfield to win 63%@1.67 ✓

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Bury vs Workington?

Our pick is Over 2.5 goals with a 69% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.62.

Who will win Bury vs Workington?

On our numbers Bury have a 62% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Workington 17%.

How many goals will there be in Bury vs Workington?

We expect about 4.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 69% likely and both teams score 61% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for Bury vs Workington?

Our predicted score is Bury 2–1 Workington, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 4.3 goals in total.

When is Bury vs Workington?

Bury vs Workington (FA Cup) kicks off on Saturday 19 September 2026 at 15:00 (West Africa Time).

Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.