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BetaraziFootball predictions · read by the numbers

Buxton v Ashton United: numbers & prediction

FA Cup · England

Buxton

WWLWW
1–0
FT

Ashton United

LWLLD
Buxton 70%Draw 20%Ashton United 10% Expected goals 3.48 – 1.57
74%
Betarazi pick

Over 2.5 goals

Strong pick · fair odds 1.35 · bookmaker 1.57 · Lost ✗

8/10Rating
1.57Odds

Picks by market

ResultBuxton to win ✓70% · @1.36
Double chanceBuxton or draw ✓90% · fair 1.11
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗62% · fair 1.62
GoalsOver 3.5 goals ✗74% · fair 1.35
Correct scoreCorrect score 3–1 ✗7% · fair 14.15

Buxton vs Ashton United: Betarazi preview and prediction

The fixture

Ashton United travel to face Buxton on Saturday 19 September in the FA Cup – the ball rolls at 15:00 WAT.

Current form

Buxton, last 5: WWLWW Their latest outing: 3–1 win over Chester, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 3 won, 1 lost from 4. 2.3 goals per outing makes them dangerous.

Ashton United, last 5: LWLLD Their latest outing: 0–1 defeat to Cleethorpes Town, at home. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 1.5 conceded per game.

Momentum favours Buxton, collecting 2.0 points per game to 0.8 for Ashton United.

Head to head

When they last met (10 Jul 2026) it ended Buxton 1–0 Ashton United.

Where the goals come from

Betarazi's ratings give Buxton 3.5 xG, Ashton United 1.6 xG – a total near 5.1. That is an open game on paper: 74% for three or more goals, 62% for GG. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.

Markets worth a look

  • 1X2 according to our numbers – Buxton 70%, draw 20%, Ashton United 10%.

Our call before kick-off

Our pre-match call was Over 2.5 goals (74%, odds 1.57 – longer than our fair 1.35, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Buxton 3–1 Ashton United. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.

Result chances

Buxton70%fair 1.43 · @1.36
Draw20%fair 4.88 · @4.50
Ashton United10%fair 10.26 · @6.25
5.05Expected goals
3.48Buxton xG
1.57Ashton United xG
62%Both score
74%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

3–17%
4–16%
2–16%
3–26%
4–25%
2–25%

From our goals model: Buxton 3.5 – 1.6 Ashton United expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

MarketMost likelyChanceFair oddsBookmaker
Match resultBuxton to win ✓70%1.431.36
Double chanceBuxton or draw ✓90%1.11–
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score ✗62%1.62–
Draw no betBuxton (draw no bet) ✓88%1.14–
Asian handicapBuxton -1 (Asian handicap)68%1.47–
Over/under 1.5 goalsOver 1.5 goals ✗96%1.04–
Over/under 2.5 goalsOver 2.5 goals ✗74%1.351.57 ▲
Over/under 3.5 goalsOver 3.5 goals ✗74%1.35–
Over/under 4.5 goalsOver 4.5 goals ✗57%1.76–
First team to scoreBuxton to score first ✓68%1.46–
Half-time resultBuxton ahead at half-time ✗57%1.74–
Half-time / full-timeHT Buxton / FT Buxton ✗52%1.93–
Correct scoreCorrect score 3–1 ✗7%14.15–

Recent results

Buxton – last 6

WWLWWL
12 Sepvs Chester3–1W
8 Sepvs Brackley Town5–0W
5 Sep@ Morecambe0–4L
31 Augvs Merthyr Town2–1W
28 Aug@ Oxford City3–2W
22 Augvs Hebburn Town1–2L
2.3Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
67%Both scored
100%Over 2.5

Ashton United – last 6

LWLLDD
12 Sepvs Cleethorpes Town0–1L
5 Sep@ Whitby Town5–2W
31 Aug@ Curzon Ashton0–2L
28 Augvs Gainsborough Trinity1–2L
25 Augvs Ilkeston Town1–1D
22 Aug@ AFC Emley1–1D
1.3Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
67%Both scored
33%Over 2.5

Head to head

10 Jul 2026Buxton v Ashton United1–0
Buxton vs Ashton United head-to-head page →

More FA Cup predictions

League hub
FT Bedford Town2 King's Lynn Town1 145%2.15X22%3.30234%2.90 1.6–1.3xG O2.5Over 2.5 goals 55%@1.73 ✓
FT Brackley Town1 AFC Portchester0 166%1.28X17%4.75217%8.00 2.2–1.0xG 1Brackley Town to win 66%@1.28 ✓
FT Bury5 Workington1 162%1.73X21%3.70217%3.80 2.8–1.5xG O2.5Over 2.5 goals 69%@1.62 ✓
FT United of Manchester4 Ossett United1 172%1.28X19%4.7529%8.00 2.5–0.9xG 1United of Manchester to win 72%@1.28 ✓
FT Gorleston3 Bury Town4 112%5.00X23%4.00265%1.50 1.4–2.9xG O2.5Over 2.5 goals 72%@1.50 ✓
FT Leamington1 Gainsborough Trinity1 140%2.50X22%3.30238%2.45 2.0–2.0xG O2.5Over 2.5 goals 66%@1.67 ✗
FT Merthyr Town1 Truro City1 138%2.55X22%3.25240%2.40 1.3–1.4xG U2.5Under 2.5 goals 50%@1.90 ✓
FT Redcar Athletic1 Macclesfield2 121%3.90X15%3.90263%1.67 0.6–1.4xG 2Macclesfield to win 63%@1.67 ✓

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Buxton vs Ashton United?

Our pick is Over 2.5 goals with a 74% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.57.

Who will win Buxton vs Ashton United?

On our numbers Buxton have a 70% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Ashton United 10%.

How many goals will there be in Buxton vs Ashton United?

We expect about 5.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 74% likely and both teams score 62% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for Buxton vs Ashton United?

Our predicted score is Buxton 3–1 Ashton United, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 5.1 goals in total.

When is Buxton vs Ashton United?

Buxton vs Ashton United (FA Cup) kicks off on Saturday 19 September 2026 at 15:00 (West Africa Time).

Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.