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BetaraziFootball predictions · read by the numbers

Sagan Tosu v Tokyo Verdy: numbers & prediction

J League Cup · Japan · Ekimae Real Estate Stadium

Sagan Tosu

LLLLW
1–1
FTAET 2–1

Tokyo Verdy

LDWDL
Sagan Tosu 38%Draw 23%Tokyo Verdy 39% Expected goals 0.99 – 1.01
53%
Betarazi pick

Both teams to score

Fair pick · fair odds 1.87 · bookmaker 1.75 · Won ✓

4/10Rating
1.75Odds
1

Value bet: Sagan Tosu to win @ 2.80 – our chance 38% vs 36% implied by the price (edge +7%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗

Picks by market

ResultTokyo Verdy to win ✗39% · @2.20
Double chanceEither team to win ✗77% · @1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓53% · @1.75
GoalsUnder 2.5 goals ✓68% · fair 1.48
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗7% · fair 14.70

Sagan Tosu vs Tokyo Verdy: Betarazi preview and prediction

The fixture

Tokyo Verdy travel to face Sagan Tosu on Tuesday 29 September in the J League Cup, with Ekimae Real Estate Stadium the venue – the ball rolls at 11:00 WAT.

Current form

Sagan Tosu, last 5: LLLLW Their latest outing: 0–2 defeat to Montedio Yamagata, away. Scoring is the worry: just 0.8 goals a game.

Tokyo Verdy, last 5: LDWDL Their latest outing: 1–3 defeat to Urawa, away. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 1 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.5 goals a game.

Where the goals come from

Betarazi's ratings give Sagan Tosu 1.0 xG, Tokyo Verdy 1.0 xG – a total near 2.0. On paper it is a low-scoring affair, with under 2.5 at 68%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to stay under 2.5.

Markets worth a look

  • 1X2 according to our numbers – Sagan Tosu 38%, draw 23%, Tokyo Verdy 39%.
  • GG/NG: GG (53%) at 1.75.
  • Price worth noting: Sagan Tosu to win @2.80 – the bookmaker implies 36%, our ratings say 38%.

Our call before kick-off

Our pre-match call was Both teams to score (53%, odds 1.75). Most likely score in line with that pick: Sagan Tosu 1–1 Tokyo Verdy. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.

Result chances

Sagan Tosu38%fair 2.61 · @2.80
Draw23%fair 4.41 · @3.10
Tokyo Verdy39%fair 2.57 · @2.20
2.00Expected goals
0.99Sagan Tosu xG
1.01Tokyo Verdy xG
53%Both score
32%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

0–114%
0–014%
1–114%
1–013%
0–27%
1–27%

From our goals model: Sagan Tosu 1.0 – 1.0 Tokyo Verdy expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

MarketMost likelyChanceFair oddsBookmaker
Match resultTokyo Verdy to win ✗39%2.572.20
Double chanceEither team to win ✗77%1.291.30
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score ✓53%1.871.75
Draw no betTokyo Verdy (draw no bet)50%1.99–
Asian handicapSagan Tosu +0.5 (Asian handicap) ✓65%1.54–
Over/under 1.5 goalsOver 1.5 goals ✓59%1.68–
Over/under 2.5 goalsUnder 2.5 goals ✓68%1.48–
Over/under 3.5 goalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓86%1.17–
Over/under 4.5 goalsUnder 4.5 goals ✓95%1.06–
First team to scoreTokyo Verdy to score first43%2.30–
Half-time resultLevel at half-time ✓50%2.00–
Half-time / full-timeHT Draw / FT Draw ✓22%4.59–
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗7%14.70–

Recent results

Sagan Tosu – last 6

LLLLWW
26 Sep@ Montedio Yamagata0–2L
23 Sep@ Vissel Kobe0–1L
19 Sepvs Iwaki1–3L
12 Sep@ Imabari0–1L
5 Sepvs Tegevajaro Miyazaki2–0W
2 Sep@ Nara Club2–1W
0.8Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5

Tokyo Verdy – last 6

LDWDLL
19 Sep@ Urawa1–3L
13 Sepvs JEF United Chiba1–1D
9 Sep@ Biwako Shiga1–0W
6 Sep@ Cerezo Osaka0–0D
2 Sepvs Vissel Kobe0–2L
29 Augvs Kashima0–2L
0.5Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
33%Both scored
17%Over 2.5

Head to head

No previous meetings on record between Sagan Tosu and Tokyo Verdy.

Sagan Tosu vs Tokyo Verdy head-to-head page →

J League Cup table

#TeamPWDLGDPts
1Yokohama F. Marinos6501+915
2Consadole Sapporo6312+310
3Jubilo Iwata6204-16
4Sagan Tosu6114-114

More J League Cup predictions

League hub
FT Ehime FC0 FC Tokyo2 115%8.00X17%4.80268%1.25 0.1–0.9xG 2FC Tokyo to win 68%@1.25 ✓
FT Fujieda MYFC1 Cerezo Osaka2 116%4.80X20%3.60263%1.57 0.5–1.5xG 2Cerezo Osaka to win 63%@1.57 ✓
FT Consadole Sapporo1 Fagiano Okayama2 116%4.75X20%3.90264%1.53 0.1–0.9xG 2Fagiano Okayama to win 64%@1.53 ✓
FT Kanazawa0 Shimizu S-pulse2 121%3.70X23%3.30257%1.80 1.1–1.9xG X2Shimizu S-pulse or draw 79%@1.22 ✓
FT Roasso Kumamoto0 Kawasaki Frontale1 111%7.50X20%4.50268%1.30 0.4–1.6xG 2Kawasaki Frontale to win 68%@1.30 ✓
FT Kitakyushu1 Nagoya Grampus3 114%7.50X20%4.60266%1.30 0.1–0.9xG 2Nagoya Grampus to win 66%@1.30 ✓
FT Osaka1 Avispa Fukuoka1 AET 1–2 118%5.00X19%3.80262%1.50 1.0–2.0xG 2Avispa Fukuoka to win 62%@1.50 ✗
FT Tochigi City0 Sanfrecce Hiroshima2 110%8.50X20%5.00271%1.25 0.4–1.6xG 2Sanfrecce Hiroshima to win 71%@1.25 ✓

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Sagan Tosu vs Tokyo Verdy?

Our pick is Both teams to score with a 53% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.75.

Who will win Sagan Tosu vs Tokyo Verdy?

On our numbers Sagan Tosu have a 38% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Tokyo Verdy 39%.

How many goals will there be in Sagan Tosu vs Tokyo Verdy?

We expect about 2.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 32% likely and both teams score 53% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for Sagan Tosu vs Tokyo Verdy?

Our predicted score is Sagan Tosu 1–1 Tokyo Verdy, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.0 goals in total.

When is Sagan Tosu vs Tokyo Verdy?

Sagan Tosu vs Tokyo Verdy (J League Cup) kicks off on Tuesday 29 September 2026 at 11:00 (West Africa Time) at Ekimae Real Estate Stadium.

Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.