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BetaraziFootball predictions · read by the numbers

Matsumoto Yamaga v Albirex Niigata: numbers & prediction

J League Cup · Japan · Sunpro Alwin

Matsumoto Yamaga

WDLDD
1–0
FT

Albirex Niigata

DWWLW
Matsumoto Yamaga 34%Draw 22%Albirex Niigata 44% Expected goals 2.12 – 2.38
66%
Betarazi pick

Both teams to score

Good pick · fair odds 1.51 · bookmaker 1.60 · Lost ✗

6/10Rating
1.60Odds

Picks by market

ResultAlbirex Niigata to win ✗44% · @2.30
Double chanceEither team to win ✓78% · @1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗66% · @1.60
GoalsOver 2.5 goals ✗83% · fair 1.21
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗7% · fair 14.97

Matsumoto Yamaga vs Albirex Niigata: Betarazi preview and prediction

The fixture

On Tuesday 29 September the J League Cup brings Matsumoto Yamaga against Albirex Niigata at Sunpro Alwin. Kick-off: 11:00 WAT.

Current form

Matsumoto Yamaga, last 5: WDLDD Their latest outing: 2–1 win over Tochigi SC, away. In their own stadium the record reads 0 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.2 scored, 1.3 conceded per game.

Albirex Niigata, last 5: DWWLW Their latest outing: 2–2 draw with Blaublitz Akita, away. Away from home the record reads 2 won, 1 lost from 4. Goals for and against: 1.7 scored, 1.8 conceded per game.

Momentum favours Albirex Niigata, collecting 2.2 points per game to 1.2 for Matsumoto Yamaga.

Where the goals come from

Betarazi's ratings give Matsumoto Yamaga 2.1 xG, Albirex Niigata 2.4 xG – a total near 4.5. That is an open game on paper: 83% for three or more goals, 66% for GG. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.

Markets worth a look

  • 1X2 according to our numbers – Matsumoto Yamaga 34%, draw 22%, Albirex Niigata 44%.
  • GG/NG: GG (66%) at 1.60.

Our call before kick-off

Our pre-match call was Both teams to score (66%, odds 1.60 – longer than our fair 1.51, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Matsumoto Yamaga 2–2 Albirex Niigata. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.

Result chances

Matsumoto Yamaga34%fair 2.95 · @2.62
Draw22%fair 4.47 · @3.20
Albirex Niigata44%fair 2.29 · @2.30
4.50Expected goals
2.12Matsumoto Yamaga xG
2.38Albirex Niigata xG
66%Both score
83%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

2–27%
1–27%
2–16%
2–36%
1–16%
1–35%

From our goals model: Matsumoto Yamaga 2.1 – 2.4 Albirex Niigata expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

MarketMost likelyChanceFair oddsBookmaker
Match resultAlbirex Niigata to win ✗44%2.292.30
Double chanceEither team to win ✓78%1.291.30
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score ✗66%1.511.60 ▲
Draw no betAlbirex Niigata (draw no bet) ✗56%1.78–
Asian handicapMatsumoto Yamaga +1 (Asian handicap) ✓67%1.50–
Over/under 1.5 goalsOver 1.5 goals ✗94%1.07–
Over/under 2.5 goalsOver 2.5 goals ✗83%1.21–
Over/under 3.5 goalsOver 3.5 goals ✗66%1.52–
Over/under 4.5 goalsUnder 4.5 goals ✓53%1.88–
First team to scoreAlbirex Niigata to score first ✗52%1.91–
Half-time resultAlbirex Niigata ahead at half-time ✗38%2.66–
Half-time / full-timeHT Albirex Niigata / FT Albirex Niigata ✗28%3.51–
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗7%14.97–

Recent results

Matsumoto Yamaga – last 6

WDLDDD
26 Sep@ Tochigi SC2–1W
18 Sep@ Roasso Kumamoto0–0D
13 Sepvs Sagamihara1–3L
9 Sepvs Shonan Bellmare3–3D
5 Sepvs Osaka0–0D
30 Aug@ Kitakyushu1–1D
1.2Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
67%Both scored
50%Over 2.5

Albirex Niigata – last 6

DWWLWW
26 Sep@ Blaublitz Akita2–2D
19 Sepvs Jubilo Iwata2–1W
13 Sepvs Montedio Yamagata1–0W
6 Sep@ Yokohama FC0–5L
2 Sep@ Thespakusatsu Gunma2–1W
29 Aug@ Iwaki3–2W
1.7Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
67%Both scored
83%Over 2.5

Head to head

No previous meetings on record between Matsumoto Yamaga and Albirex Niigata.

Matsumoto Yamaga vs Albirex Niigata head-to-head page →

More J League Cup predictions

League hub
FT Ehime FC0 FC Tokyo2 115%8.00X17%4.80268%1.25 0.1–0.9xG 2FC Tokyo to win 68%@1.25 ✓
FT Fujieda MYFC1 Cerezo Osaka2 116%4.80X20%3.60263%1.57 0.5–1.5xG 2Cerezo Osaka to win 63%@1.57 ✓
FT Consadole Sapporo1 Fagiano Okayama2 116%4.75X20%3.90264%1.53 0.1–0.9xG 2Fagiano Okayama to win 64%@1.53 ✓
FT Kanazawa0 Shimizu S-pulse2 121%3.70X23%3.30257%1.80 1.1–1.9xG X2Shimizu S-pulse or draw 79%@1.22 ✓
FT Roasso Kumamoto0 Kawasaki Frontale1 111%7.50X20%4.50268%1.30 0.4–1.6xG 2Kawasaki Frontale to win 68%@1.30 ✓
FT Kitakyushu1 Nagoya Grampus3 114%7.50X20%4.60266%1.30 0.1–0.9xG 2Nagoya Grampus to win 66%@1.30 ✓
FT Osaka1 Avispa Fukuoka1 AET 1–2 118%5.00X19%3.80262%1.50 1.0–2.0xG 2Avispa Fukuoka to win 62%@1.50 ✗
FT Tochigi City0 Sanfrecce Hiroshima2 110%8.50X20%5.00271%1.25 0.4–1.6xG 2Sanfrecce Hiroshima to win 71%@1.25 ✓

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Matsumoto Yamaga vs Albirex Niigata?

Our pick is Both teams to score with a 66% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.60.

Who will win Matsumoto Yamaga vs Albirex Niigata?

On our numbers Matsumoto Yamaga have a 34% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Albirex Niigata 44%.

How many goals will there be in Matsumoto Yamaga vs Albirex Niigata?

We expect about 4.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 83% likely and both teams score 66% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for Matsumoto Yamaga vs Albirex Niigata?

Our predicted score is Matsumoto Yamaga 2–2 Albirex Niigata, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 4.5 goals in total.

When is Matsumoto Yamaga vs Albirex Niigata?

Matsumoto Yamaga vs Albirex Niigata (J League Cup) kicks off on Tuesday 29 September 2026 at 11:00 (West Africa Time) at Sunpro Alwin.

Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.