Vanuatu v New Caledonia Prediction & Expected Goals (27 Sep) – Odds, Stats, Pick

Picks by market

ResultNew Caledonia to win ✗42% · @2.30

Double chanceEither team to win ✓79% · @1.30

Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓65% · @1.60

GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓82% · fair 1.21

Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗9% · fair 11.53

Vanuatu vs New Caledonia: Betarazi preview and prediction

The fixture

New Caledonia travel to face Vanuatu on Sunday 27 September in the Friendlies – the ball rolls at 05:00 WAT.

Current form

Vanuatu, last 3: DWW Their latest outing: 3–3 draw with Solomon Islands, away. Scoring is no problem – 2.0 a game lately.

New Caledonia, last 3: WLL Their latest outing: 2–1 win over Papua New Guinea, away. Scoring is the worry: just 0.7 goals a game.

Momentum favours Vanuatu, collecting 2.3 points per game to 1.0 for New Caledonia.

Where the goals come from

Betarazi's ratings give Vanuatu 1.5 xG, New Caledonia 1.6 xG – a total near 3.2. Both nets should be busy – over 2.5 sits at 61% and GG at 65%.

Markets worth a look

1X2 according to our numbers – Vanuatu 37%, draw 21%, New Caledonia 42%.
GG/NG: GG (65%) at 1.60.

Our call before kick-off

Our pre-match call was Both teams to score (65%, odds 1.60 – longer than our fair 1.53, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Vanuatu 1–1 New Caledonia. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.

Result chances

Vanuatu37%fair 2.72 · @2.50

Draw21%fair 4.69 · @3.30

New Caledonia42%fair 2.38 · @2.30

3.17Expected goals

1.52Vanuatu xG

1.65New Caledonia xG

65%Both score

61%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

1–111%

1–29%

2–18%

0–17%

2–27%

1–06%

From our goals model: Vanuatu 1.5 – 1.6 New Caledonia expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

Market	Most likely	Chance	Fair odds	Bookmaker
Match result	New Caledonia to win ✗	42%	2.38	2.30
Double chance	Either team to win ✓	79%	1.27	1.30
Both teams to score	Both teams to score ✓	65%	1.53	1.60
Draw no bet	New Caledonia (draw no bet) ✗	53%	1.88	–
Asian handicap	Vanuatu +1 (Asian handicap) ✓	74%	1.35	–
Over/under 1.5 goals	Over 1.5 goals ✓	82%	1.21	–
Over/under 2.5 goals	Over 2.5 goals ✓	61%	1.63	–
Over/under 3.5 goals	Under 3.5 goals ✗	61%	1.64	–
Over/under 4.5 goals	Under 4.5 goals ✗	79%	1.27	–
First team to score	New Caledonia to score first	50%	2.01	–
Half-time result	Level at half-time ✓	38%	2.61	–
Half-time / full-time	HT New Caledonia / FT New Caledonia ✗	24%	4.10	–
Correct score	Correct score 1–2 ✗	9%	11.53	–

Vanuatu – last 3

DWW

24 Sep	@ Solomon Islands	3–3	D
21 Sep	@ Fiji	1–0	W
6 Jun	vs Fiji	2–1	W

2.0Scored / game

1.3Conceded / game

67%Both scored

67%Over 2.5

New Caledonia – last 3

WLL

24 Sep	@ Papua New Guinea	2–1	W
21 Sep	vs Solomon Islands	0–2	L
27 Mar	vs Jamaica	0–1	L

0.7Scored / game

1.3Conceded / game

33%Both scored

33%Over 2.5

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Vanuatu vs New Caledonia?

Our pick is Both teams to score with a 65% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.60.

Who will win Vanuatu vs New Caledonia?

On our numbers Vanuatu have a 37% chance of winning, the draw 21% and New Caledonia 42%.

How many goals will there be in Vanuatu vs New Caledonia?

We expect about 3.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 61% likely and both teams score 65% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for Vanuatu vs New Caledonia?

Our predicted score is Vanuatu 1–1 New Caledonia, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.2 goals in total.

When is Vanuatu vs New Caledonia?

Vanuatu vs New Caledonia (Friendlies) kicks off on Sunday 27 September 2026 at 05:00 (West Africa Time).

Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.

Vanuatu v New Caledonia: numbers & prediction

Vanuatu

New Caledonia

Both teams to score