Sagan Tosu v Avispa Fukuoka Prediction & Expected Goals (14 Oct) – Odds, Stats, Pick

Picks by market

ResultAvispa Fukuoka to win ✗45% · @2.10

Double chanceEither team to win ✓77% · @1.30

Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓62% · @1.75

GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓80% · fair 1.25

Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗9% · fair 10.96

Sagan Tosu vs Avispa Fukuoka: Betarazi preview and prediction

The fixture

11:00 WAT, Wednesday 14 October: Sagan Tosu v Avispa Fukuoka in the J League Cup, played at Ekimae Real Estate Stadium. In the table, Sagan Tosu are 4th on 4 points after 6 matches; Avispa Fukuoka are 1st with 13.

Current form

Sagan Tosu, last 5: WLDLL Their latest outing: 1–0 win over Fujieda MYFC, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 1 won, 1 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.5 goals a game.

Avispa Fukuoka, last 5: WLDLL Their latest outing: 2–1 win over Fagiano Okayama, at home. Scoring is the worry: just 0.7 goals a game.

Where the goals come from

Betarazi's ratings give Sagan Tosu 1.4 xG, Avispa Fukuoka 1.6 xG – a total near 3.0. That is an open game on paper: 58% for three or more goals, 62% for GG. Both teams' recent matches have tended to stay under 2.5.

Markets worth a look

1X2 according to our numbers – Sagan Tosu 32%, draw 23%, Avispa Fukuoka 45%.
GG/NG: GG (62%) at 1.75.

Our call before kick-off

Our pre-match call was Both teams to score (62%, odds 1.75 – longer than our fair 1.62, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Sagan Tosu 1–1 Avispa Fukuoka. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.

Result chances

Sagan Tosu32%fair 3.13 · @3.10

Draw23%fair 4.26 · @2.90

Avispa Fukuoka45%fair 2.24 · @2.10

3.00Expected goals

1.36Sagan Tosu xG

1.64Avispa Fukuoka xG

62%Both score

58%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

1–111%

1–29%

0–18%

2–18%

1–07%

0–27%

From our goals model: Sagan Tosu 1.4 – 1.6 Avispa Fukuoka expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

Market	Most likely	Chance	Fair odds	Bookmaker
Match result	Avispa Fukuoka to win ✗	45%	2.24	2.10
Double chance	Either team to win ✓	77%	1.31	1.30
Both teams to score	Both teams to score ✓	62%	1.62	1.75 ▲
Draw no bet	Avispa Fukuoka (draw no bet) ✗	58%	1.72	–
Asian handicap	Sagan Tosu +1 (Asian handicap) ✓	71%	1.41	–
Over/under 1.5 goals	Over 1.5 goals ✓	80%	1.25	–
Over/under 2.5 goals	Over 2.5 goals ✓	58%	1.73	–
Over/under 3.5 goals	Under 3.5 goals ✓	65%	1.55	–
Over/under 4.5 goals	Under 4.5 goals ✓	82%	1.23	–
First team to score	Avispa Fukuoka to score first	52%	1.92	–
Half-time result	Level at half-time ✓	40%	2.53	–
Half-time / full-time	HT Avispa Fukuoka / FT Avispa Fukuoka ✗	27%	3.76	–
Correct score	Correct score 1–2 ✗	9%	10.96	–

Sagan Tosu – last 6

WLDLLL

10 Oct	vs Fujieda MYFC	1–0	W
4 Oct	@ Blaublitz Akita	0–1	L
29 Sep	vs Tokyo Verdy	1–1	D
26 Sep	@ Montedio Yamagata	0–2	L
23 Sep	@ Vissel Kobe	0–1	L
19 Sep	vs Iwaki	1–3	L

0.5Scored / game

1.3Conceded / game

33%Both scored

17%Over 2.5

Avispa Fukuoka – last 6

WLDLLD

10 Oct	vs Fagiano Okayama	2–1	W
7 Oct	vs Yokohama FC	0–1	L
29 Sep	@ Osaka	1–1	D
19 Sep	vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima	0–1	L
12 Sep	@ Shimizu S-pulse	0–1	L
5 Sep	vs Mito Hollyhock	1–1	D

0.7Scored / game

1.0Conceded / game

50%Both scored

17%Over 2.5

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Yokohama F. Marinos	6	5	0	1	+9	15
2	Consadole Sapporo	6	3	1	2	+3	10
3	Jubilo Iwata	6	2	0	4	-1	6
4	Sagan Tosu	6	1	1	4	-11	4

Team

Pts

-1

-11

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Sagan Tosu vs Avispa Fukuoka?

Our pick is Both teams to score with a 62% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.75.

Who will win Sagan Tosu vs Avispa Fukuoka?

On our numbers Sagan Tosu have a 32% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Avispa Fukuoka 45%.

How many goals will there be in Sagan Tosu vs Avispa Fukuoka?

We expect about 3.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 58% likely and both teams score 62% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for Sagan Tosu vs Avispa Fukuoka?

Our predicted score is Sagan Tosu 1–1 Avispa Fukuoka, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.0 goals in total.

When is Sagan Tosu vs Avispa Fukuoka?

Sagan Tosu vs Avispa Fukuoka (J League Cup) kicks off on Wednesday 14 October 2026 at 11:00 (West Africa Time) at Ekimae Real Estate Stadium.

Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.

Sagan Tosu v Avispa Fukuoka: numbers & prediction