Double chanceSanfrecce Hiroshima or draw ✓91% · @1.04
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗51% · @1.85
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✗80% · fair 1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗9% · fair 10.80
Matsumoto Yamaga vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Wednesday 14 October the J League Cup brings Matsumoto Yamaga against Sanfrecce Hiroshima at Sunpro Alwin. Kick-off: 11:00 WAT.
Current form
Matsumoto Yamaga, last 5: WLWWD Their latest outing: 1–0 win over Kagoshima United, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 2 lost from 4. Scoring is the worry: just 0.8 goals a game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Sanfrecce Hiroshima, last 5: WWWWW Their latest outing: 2–0 win over Tokyo Verdy, away. Away from home the record reads 3 won, 1 lost from 4. The attack is flying at 2.8 goals per game. Defensively they have kept 4 clean sheets in that run.
Momentum favours Sanfrecce Hiroshima, collecting 2.5 points per game to 1.7 for Matsumoto Yamaga.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Matsumoto Yamaga 0.7 xG, Sanfrecce Hiroshima 2.3 xG – a total near 3.0. Both nets should be busy – over 2.5 sits at 58% and GG at 51%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Matsumoto Yamaga 9%, draw 18%, Sanfrecce Hiroshima 73%.
GG/NG: GG (51%) at 1.85.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Sanfrecce Hiroshima to win (73%, odds 1.20). Most likely score in line with that pick: Matsumoto Yamaga 0–2 Sanfrecce Hiroshima. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Matsumoto Yamaga9%fair 10.56 · @10.00
Draw18%fair 5.61 · @5.00
Sanfrecce Hiroshima73%fair 1.38 · @1.20
3.00Expected goals
0.71Matsumoto Yamaga xG
2.29Sanfrecce Hiroshima xG
51%Both score
58%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
0–213%
0–111%
0–310%
1–29%
1–18%
1–37%
From our goals model: Matsumoto Yamaga 0.7 – 2.3 Sanfrecce Hiroshima expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Sanfrecce Hiroshima to win✓
73%
1.38
1.20
Double chance
Sanfrecce Hiroshima or draw✓
91%
1.10
1.04
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
51%
1.97
1.85
Draw no bet
Sanfrecce Hiroshima (draw no bet)✓
88%
1.13
–
Asian handicap
Sanfrecce Hiroshima -1 (Asian handicap)
65%
1.54
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
80%
1.25
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
58%
1.73
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
65%
1.55
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
82%
1.23
–
First team to score
Sanfrecce Hiroshima to score first✓
73%
1.38
–
Half-time result
Sanfrecce Hiroshima ahead at half-time✓
53%
1.89
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Sanfrecce Hiroshima / FT Sanfrecce Hiroshima✓
49%
2.04
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
9%
10.80
–
Recent results
Matsumoto Yamaga – last 6
WLWWDL
11 Oct
vs Kagoshima United
1–0
W
3 Oct
vs Gainare Tottori
0–1
L
29 Sep
vs Albirex Niigata
1–0
W
26 Sep
@ Tochigi SC
2–1
W
18 Sep
@ Roasso Kumamoto
0–0
D
13 Sep
vs Sagamihara
1–3
L
0.8Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Sanfrecce Hiroshima – last 6
WWWWWL
11 Oct
@ Tokyo Verdy
2–0
W
7 Oct
vs Iwaki
4–0
W
29 Sep
@ Tochigi City
2–0
W
19 Sep
@ Avispa Fukuoka
1–0
W
12 Sep
vs Cerezo Osaka
6–1
W
6 Sep
@ Fagiano Okayama
2–3
L
2.8Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
33%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Matsumoto Yamaga and Sanfrecce Hiroshima.
What is the prediction for Matsumoto Yamaga vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima?
Our pick is Sanfrecce Hiroshima to win with a 73% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Matsumoto Yamaga vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima?
On our numbers Matsumoto Yamaga have a 9% chance of winning, the draw 18% and Sanfrecce Hiroshima 73%.
How many goals will there be in Matsumoto Yamaga vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima?
We expect about 3.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 58% likely and both teams score 51% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Matsumoto Yamaga vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima?
Our predicted score is Matsumoto Yamaga 0–2 Sanfrecce Hiroshima, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.0 goals in total.
When is Matsumoto Yamaga vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima?
Matsumoto Yamaga vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima (J League Cup) kicks off on Wednesday 14 October 2026 at 11:00 (West Africa Time) at Sunpro Alwin.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Urawa4
Gainare Tottori2
Cerezo Osaka3
Jubilo Iwata0
Kawasaki Frontale4
Mito Hollyhock1
FC Tokyo0
Fagiano Okayama3
Sagan Tosu2
Avispa Fukuoka1
Yokohama F. Marinos2
Shimizu S-pulse1