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BetaraziFootball predictions · read by the numbers

Morton v Kelty Hearts: numbers & prediction

Challenge Cup · Scotland · Cappielow Park

Morton

WWWLL
0–1
FT

Kelty Hearts

LLWLL
Morton 68%Draw 21%Kelty Hearts 11% Expected goals 2.91 – 1.27
72%
Betarazi pick

Over 2.5 goals

Strong pick · fair odds 1.39 · bookmaker 1.44 · Lost ✗

7/10Rating
1.44Odds
O3.5

Value bet: Over 3.5 goals @ 2.10 – our chance 52% vs 48% implied by the price (edge +10%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗

Picks by market

ResultMorton to win ✗68% · @1.45
Double chanceMorton or draw ✗89% · @1.12
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗65% · @1.57
GoalsOver 2.5 goals ✗72% · @1.44
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗8% · fair 12.15

Morton vs Kelty Hearts: Betarazi preview and prediction

The fixture

Morton welcome Kelty Hearts to Cappielow Park for a Challenge Cup fixture on Tuesday 3 November (20:45 WAT).

Current form

Morton, last 5: WWWLL Their latest outing: 3–2 win over Partick, away. In their own stadium the record reads 1 won, 2 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 1.3 conceded per game.

Kelty Hearts, last 5: LLWLL Their latest outing: 0–1 defeat to Elgin City, at home. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 3 lost from 4. Goals for and against: 1.2 scored, 1.7 conceded per game.

Momentum favours Morton, collecting 1.5 points per game to 1.0 for Kelty Hearts.

Where the goals come from

Betarazi's ratings give Morton 2.9 xG, Kelty Hearts 1.3 xG – a total near 4.2. That is an open game on paper: 72% for three or more goals, 65% for GG.

Markets worth a look

  • 1X2 according to our numbers – Morton 68%, draw 21%, Kelty Hearts 11%.
  • GG/NG: GG (65%) at 1.57.
  • Price worth noting: Over 3.5 goals @2.10 – the bookmaker implies 48%, our ratings say 52%.

Our call before kick-off

Our pre-match call was Over 2.5 goals (72%, odds 1.44 – longer than our fair 1.39, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Morton 2–1 Kelty Hearts. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.

Result chances

Morton68%fair 1.47 · @1.45
Draw21%fair 4.69 · @3.90
Kelty Hearts11%fair 9.23 · @5.75
4.18Expected goals
2.91Morton xG
1.27Kelty Hearts xG
65%Both score
72%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

2–18%
3–18%
2–06%
3–06%
4–16%
1–16%

From our goals model: Morton 2.9 – 1.3 Kelty Hearts expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

MarketMost likelyChanceFair oddsBookmaker
Match resultMorton to win ✗68%1.471.45
Double chanceMorton or draw ✗89%1.121.12
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score ✗65%1.531.57
Draw no betMorton (draw no bet) ✗86%1.16–
Asian handicapMorton -1 (Asian handicap) ✗64%1.57–
Over/under 1.5 goalsOver 1.5 goals ✗88%1.131.12
Over/under 2.5 goalsOver 2.5 goals ✗72%1.391.44
Over/under 3.5 goalsOver 3.5 goals ✗52%1.922.10 ▲
Over/under 4.5 goalsUnder 4.5 goals ✓66%1.511.28
First team to scoreMorton to score first ✗69%1.46–
Half-time resultMorton ahead at half-time ✗54%1.85–
Half-time / full-timeHT Morton / FT Morton ✗49%2.05–
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗8%12.15–

Recent results

Morton – last 6

WWWLLL
31 Oct@ Partick3–2W
17 Octvs Queen's Park2–0W
10 Oct@ Arbroath2–1W
3 Octvs Raith Rovers1–2L
25 Sep@ Inverness CT0–2L
19 Sepvs Dunfermline0–1L
1.3Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5

Kelty Hearts – last 6

LLWLLW
31 Octvs Elgin City0–1L
24 Oct@ Edinburgh City1–4L
17 Octvs Forfar Athletic2–1W
13 Oct@ East Kilbride1–2L
10 Oct@ Stirling Albion1–2L
3 Oct@ Spartans2–0W
1.2Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5

Head to head

No previous meetings on record between Morton and Kelty Hearts.

Morton vs Kelty Hearts head-to-head page →

More Challenge Cup predictions

League hub
FT Aberdeen U211 Queen's Park1 Pens 2–4 120%3.70X17%4.33263%1.65 1.1–2.1xG 2Queen's Park to win 63%@1.65 ✗
FT Airdrie United5 Elgin City0 163%1.70X21%3.70215%4.00 2.4–1.1xG 1XAirdrie United or draw 85%@1.20 ✓
FT Annan Athletic0 Ayr Utd2 113%5.50X23%4.00264%1.45 0.8–2.0xG U3.5Under 3.5 goals 62%@1.67 ✓
FT Arbroath1 Queen of the South0 164%1.62X20%3.75216%4.33 2.0–0.9xG 1Arbroath to win 64%@1.62 ✓
FT Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic2 Dunfermline4 118%8.00X17%4.75265%1.28 1.1–2.3xG O2.5Over 2.5 goals 65%@1.44 ✓
FT Clydebank1 Alloa Athletic0 141%2.50X20%3.60239%2.35 1.6–1.6xG GGBoth teams to score 67%@1.50 ✗
FT East Kilbride7 Stirling Albion3 163%1.50X22%4.00215%5.25 2.7–1.4xG O2.5Over 2.5 goals 71%@1.48 ✓
FT Edinburgh City0 Partick3 117%5.25X20%4.33263%1.45 0.9–1.9xG U3.5Under 3.5 goals 65%@1.53 ✓

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Morton vs Kelty Hearts?

Our pick is Over 2.5 goals with a 72% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.44.

Who will win Morton vs Kelty Hearts?

On our numbers Morton have a 68% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Kelty Hearts 11%.

How many goals will there be in Morton vs Kelty Hearts?

We expect about 4.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 72% likely and both teams score 65% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for Morton vs Kelty Hearts?

Our predicted score is Morton 2–1 Kelty Hearts, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 4.2 goals in total.

When is Morton vs Kelty Hearts?

Morton vs Kelty Hearts (Challenge Cup) kicks off on Tuesday 3 November 2026 at 20:45 (West Africa Time) at Cappielow Park.

Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.