Wednesday 11 November 2026 16 live now 66% correct · last 30 days JackpotsNewsTelegram18+
BetaraziFootball predictions · read by the numbers

Burton Albion v AFC Rushden & Diamonds: numbers & prediction

FA Cup · England · Pirelli Stadium

Burton Albion

LWDDL
4–0
FT

AFC Rushden & Diamonds

WWWWL
Burton Albion 77%Draw 16%AFC Rushden & Diamonds 7% Expected goals 2.72 – 0.77
70%
Betarazi pick

Over 2.5 goals

Strong pick · fair odds 1.43 · bookmaker 1.33 · Won ✓

7/10Rating
1.33Odds
GG

Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.38 – our chance 50% vs 42% implied by the price (edge +20%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗

Picks by market

ResultBurton Albion to win ✓77% · @1.08
Double chanceBurton Albion or draw ✓93% · @1.01
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗50% · @2.38
GoalsOver 2.5 goals ✓70% · @1.33
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 11.52

Burton Albion vs AFC Rushden & Diamonds: Betarazi preview and prediction

The fixture

On Saturday 7 November the FA Cup brings Burton Albion against AFC Rushden & Diamonds at Pirelli Stadium. Kick-off: 16:00 WAT.

Current form

Burton Albion, last 5: LWDDL Their latest outing: 0–2 defeat to Wycombe, away. Scoring is the worry: just 0.7 goals a game.

AFC Rushden & Diamonds, last 5: WWWWL Their latest outing: 2–1 win over Morecambe, at home. 2.2 goals per outing makes them dangerous.

Momentum favours AFC Rushden & Diamonds, collecting 2.2 points per game to 1.0 for Burton Albion.

Where the goals come from

Betarazi's ratings give Burton Albion 2.7 xG, AFC Rushden & Diamonds 0.8 xG – a total near 3.5. That is an open game on paper: 70% for three or more goals, 50% for GG. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.

Markets worth a look

  • 1X2 according to our numbers – Burton Albion 77%, draw 16%, AFC Rushden & Diamonds 7%.
  • GG/NG: GG (50%) at 2.38.
  • Price worth noting: Both teams to score @2.38 – the bookmaker implies 42%, our ratings say 50%.

Our call before kick-off

Our pre-match call was Over 2.5 goals (70%, odds 1.33). Most likely score in line with that pick: Burton Albion 3–0 AFC Rushden & Diamonds. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.

Result chances

Burton Albion77%fair 1.29 · @1.08
Draw16%fair 6.35 · @10.00
AFC Rushden & Diamonds7%fair 14.40 · @21.00
3.49Expected goals
2.72Burton Albion xG
0.77AFC Rushden & Diamonds xG
50%Both score
70%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

2–011%
3–010%
2–19%
1–08%
3–18%
4–07%

From our goals model: Burton Albion 2.7 – 0.8 AFC Rushden & Diamonds expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

MarketMost likelyChanceFair oddsBookmaker
Match resultBurton Albion to win ✓77%1.291.08
Double chanceBurton Albion or draw ✓93%1.071.01
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score ✗50%1.982.38 ▲
Draw no betBurton Albion (draw no bet) ✓92%1.09–
Asian handicapBurton Albion -1 (Asian handicap) ✓73%1.38–
Over/under 1.5 goalsOver 1.5 goals ✓86%1.161.10
Over/under 2.5 goalsOver 2.5 goals ✓70%1.431.33
Over/under 3.5 goalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗52%1.921.83
Over/under 4.5 goalsUnder 4.5 goals ✓70%1.441.40
First team to scoreBurton Albion to score first ✓76%1.32–
Half-time resultBurton Albion ahead at half-time ✓58%1.71–
Half-time / full-timeHT Burton Albion / FT Burton Albion ✓55%1.83–
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9%11.52–

Recent results

Burton Albion – last 6

LWDDLD
31 Oct@ Wycombe0–2L
24 Octvs Leyton Orient2–1W
20 Octvs Bradford0–0D
17 Oct@ Peterborough2–2D
10 Oct@ Doncaster0–1L
6 Oct@ Grimsby0–0D
0.7Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5

AFC Rushden & Diamonds – last 6

WWWWLD
17 Octvs Morecambe2–1W
3 Octvs Braintree2–1W
19 Sepvs Peterborough Sports3–1W
5 Sep@ Desborough Town3–0W
29 Aug@ Chasetown1–3L
10 Julvs Milton Keynes Irish2–2D
2.2Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
83%Both scored
100%Over 2.5

Head to head

No previous meetings on record between Burton Albion and AFC Rushden & Diamonds.

Burton Albion vs AFC Rushden & Diamonds head-to-head page →

More FA Cup predictions

League hub
FT Accrington ST0 Wycombe2 129%3.30X22%3.40250%2.10 1.2–1.7xG U3.5Under 3.5 goals 64%@1.50 ✓
FT Barnet3 Tranmere0 159%1.67X22%3.90219%4.75 1.9–1.0xG U3.5Under 3.5 goals 64%@1.50 ✓
FT Boreham Wood0 Wigan3 164%1.70X22%4.20213%4.20 2.8–1.4xG 1XBoreham Wood or draw 87%@1.22 ✗
FT Bradford7 Marine0 174%1.30X17%5.0029%10.00 2.3–0.7xG 1Bradford to win 74%@1.30 ✓
FT Bromley0 Rotherham2 131%2.05X50%3.60219%3.40 1.7–1.4xG 1XBromley or draw 81%@1.30 ✗
FT Carlisle1 Salford City0 137%2.90X21%3.50241%2.30 1.5–1.6xG U3.5Under 3.5 goals 61%@1.57 ✓
FT Cheltenham2 FC Halifax Town0 163%1.90X15%3.90222%3.60 2.6–1.5xG O2.5Over 2.5 goals 68%@1.62 ✗
FT Crewe2 AFC Wimbledon1 138%2.30X23%3.30239%3.10 1.3–1.3xG U3.5Under 3.5 goals 73%@1.30 ✓

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Burton Albion vs AFC Rushden & Diamonds?

Our pick is Over 2.5 goals with a 70% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.33.

Who will win Burton Albion vs AFC Rushden & Diamonds?

On our numbers Burton Albion have a 77% chance of winning, the draw 16% and AFC Rushden & Diamonds 7%.

How many goals will there be in Burton Albion vs AFC Rushden & Diamonds?

We expect about 3.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 70% likely and both teams score 50% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for Burton Albion vs AFC Rushden & Diamonds?

Our predicted score is Burton Albion 3–0 AFC Rushden & Diamonds, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.5 goals in total.

When is Burton Albion vs AFC Rushden & Diamonds?

Burton Albion vs AFC Rushden & Diamonds (FA Cup) kicks off on Saturday 7 November 2026 at 16:00 (West Africa Time) at Pirelli Stadium.

Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.