York 63%Draw 21%Northampton 16%Expected goals 1.88 – 0.80
84%
Betarazi pick
York or draw
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.18 · bookmaker 1.22 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.22Odds
1
Value bet: York to win @ 1.83 – our chance 63% vs 55% implied by the price (edge +16%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultYork to win ✓63% · @1.83
Double chanceYork or draw ✓84% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗57% · @1.80
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓75% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.33
York vs Northampton: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
16:00 WAT, Saturday 7 November: York v Northampton in the FA Cup, played at York Community Stadium.
Current form
York, last 5: LLWDD Their latest outing: 2–5 defeat to Grimsby, away. In their own stadium the record reads 1 won, 0 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 1.8 conceded per game.
Northampton, last 5: LDWLW Their latest outing: 0–1 defeat to Oldham, at home. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 0 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 0.7 conceded per game.
Head to head
When they last met (10 Oct 2026) it ended York 1–1 Northampton.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give York 1.9 xG, Northampton 0.8 xG – a total near 2.7. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 50%, GG 57%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to stay under 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – York 63%, draw 21%, Northampton 16%.
Lower-risk option: York or draw (84%) at 1.22.
GG/NG: GG (57%) at 1.80.
Price worth noting: York to win @1.83 – the bookmaker implies 55%, our ratings say 63%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was York or draw (84%, odds 1.22 – longer than our fair 1.18, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: York 1–0 Northampton. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
York63%fair 1.58 · @1.83
Draw21%fair 4.74 · @3.60
Northampton16%fair 6.42 · @4.20
2.67Expected goals
1.88York xG
0.80Northampton xG
57%Both score
50%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–013%
2–012%
1–110%
2–110%
3–08%
0–07%
From our goals model: York 1.9 – 0.8 Northampton expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our pick is York or draw with a 84% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win York vs Northampton?
On our numbers York have a 63% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Northampton 16%.
How many goals will there be in York vs Northampton?
We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 50% likely and both teams score 57% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for York vs Northampton?
Our predicted score is York 1–0 Northampton, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.7 goals in total.
When is York vs Northampton?
York vs Northampton (FA Cup) kicks off on Saturday 7 November 2026 at 16:00 (West Africa Time) at York Community Stadium.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Accrington ST0
Wycombe2
Barnet3
Tranmere0
Boreham Wood0
Wigan3
Bradford7
Marine0
Bromley0
Rotherham2
Burton Albion4
AFC Rushden & Diamonds0
Carlisle1
Salford City0
Cheltenham2
FC Halifax Town0