Sunderland 29%Draw 25%Manchester United 47%Expected goals 1.34 – 1.53
77%
Betarazi pick
Over 1.5 goals
Strong pick · fair odds 1.29 · bookmaker 1.22
8/10Rating
1.22Odds
1
Value bet: Sunderland to win @ 3.75 – our chance 29% vs 27% implied by the price (edge +7%). Bigger price, more risk.
Picks by market
ResultManchester United to win47% · @1.91
Double chanceEither team to win75% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score62% · @1.62
GoalsOver 1.5 goals77% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–29% · fair 11.26
Sunderland vs Manchester United: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
15:00 WAT, Saturday 9 May: Sunderland v Manchester United in the Premier League, played at Stadium of Light. In the table, Sunderland are 19th, in the drop zone, on 8 points after 10 matches; Manchester United are 18th (in the drop zone) with 8. They are level on points, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
Sunderland, last 5: LWLWD Their latest outing: 3–4 defeat to Aston Villa, away. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 1.7 conceded per game.
Manchester United, last 5: WLDWL Their latest outing: 2–1 win over Brentford, at home. Goals for and against: 1.8 scored, 1.5 conceded per game.
Momentum favours Manchester United, collecting 1.7 points per game to 1.2 for Sunderland.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Sunderland 1.3 xG, Manchester United 1.5 xG – a total near 2.9. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 55%, GG 62%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Sunderland 29%, draw 25%, Manchester United 47%.
GG/NG: GG (62%) at 1.62.
Price worth noting: Sunderland to win @3.75 – the bookmaker implies 27%, our ratings say 29%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (77%, odds 1.22). Most likely score in line with that pick: Sunderland 1–1 Manchester United. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Sunderland29%fair 3.50 · @3.75
Draw25%fair 4.06 · @3.60
Manchester United47%fair 2.13 · @1.91
2.87Expected goals
1.34Sunderland xG
1.53Manchester United xG
62%Both score
55%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–112%
1–29%
0–19%
2–18%
1–08%
0–27%
From our goals model: Sunderland 1.3 – 1.5 Manchester United expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Manchester United to win
47%
2.13
1.91
Double chance
Either team to win
75%
1.33
1.22
Both teams to score
Both teams to score
62%
1.61
1.62
Draw no bet
Manchester United (draw no bet)
62%
1.61
–
Asian handicap
Sunderland +1 (Asian handicap)
74%
1.35
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals
77%
1.29
1.22
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
55%
1.82
1.70
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals
67%
1.50
1.44
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals
82%
1.21
1.17
First team to score
Manchester United to score first
50%
1.99
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time
41%
2.46
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Manchester United / FT Manchester United
25%
4.04
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2
9%
11.26
–
Recent results
Sunderland – last 6
LWLWDL
19 Apr
@ Aston Villa
3–4
L
22 Mar
@ Newcastle
2–1
W
8 Mar
@ Port Vale
0–1
L
3 Mar
@ Leeds
1–0
W
28 Feb
@ Bournemouth
1–1
D
22 Feb
vs Fulham
1–3
L
1.3Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
67%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Manchester United – last 6
WLDWLW
27 Apr
vs Brentford
2–1
W
13 Apr
vs Leeds
1–2
L
20 Mar
@ Bournemouth
2–2
D
15 Mar
vs Aston Villa
3–1
W
4 Mar
@ Newcastle
1–2
L
1 Mar
vs Crystal Palace
2–1
W
1.8Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
100%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Sunderland and Manchester United.
What is the prediction for Sunderland vs Manchester United?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 77% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Sunderland vs Manchester United?
On our numbers Sunderland have a 29% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Manchester United 47%.
How many goals will there be in Sunderland vs Manchester United?
We expect about 2.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 55% likely and both teams score 62% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Sunderland vs Manchester United?
Our predicted score is Sunderland 1–1 Manchester United, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.9 goals in total.
When is Sunderland vs Manchester United?
Sunderland vs Manchester United (Premier League) kicks off on Saturday 9 May 2026 at 15:00 (West Africa Time) at Stadium of Light.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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