Leeds vs Brighton: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Brighton travel to face Leeds on Sunday 17 May in the Premier League, with Elland Road the venue – the ball rolls at 15:00 WAT. In the table, Leeds are 9th, upper half, on 14 points after 10 matches; Brighton are 2nd (among the top four) with 22.
Current form
Leeds, last 5: WDWDW Their latest outing: 3–1 win over Burnley, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.7 scored, 0.8 conceded per game.
Brighton, last 4: WLWW Their latest outing: 3–0 win over Chelsea, at home. Goals for and against: 1.8 scored, 0.5 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 2 clean sheets in that run.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Leeds 1.0 xG, Brighton 1.5 xG – a total near 2.6. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 52%, GG 60%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Leeds 28%, draw 26%, Brighton 47%.
GG/NG: GG (60%) at 1.55.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (75%, odds 1.22). Most likely score in line with that pick: Leeds 1–1 Brighton. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Leeds28%fair 3.58 · @3.20
Draw26%fair 3.92 · @3.60
Brighton47%fair 2.15 · @2.08
2.58Expected goals
1.05Leeds xG
1.53Brighton xG
60%Both score
52%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–112%
0–112%
1–29%
0–29%
1–08%
0–08%
From our goals model: Leeds 1.0 – 1.5 Brighton expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Brighton to win✗
47%
2.15
2.08
Double chance
Either team to win✓
74%
1.34
1.22
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
60%
1.67
1.55
Draw no bet
Brighton (draw no bet)✗
63%
1.60
–
Asian handicap
Leeds +1 (Asian handicap)✓
68%
1.48
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
75%
1.33
1.22
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
52%
1.91
1.65
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
69%
1.45
1.48
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
84%
1.19
1.18
First team to score
Brighton to score first✗
55%
1.82
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
43%
2.33
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Brighton / FT Brighton✗
29%
3.44
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
9%
10.72
–
Recent results
Leeds – last 6
WDWDWL
1 May
vs Burnley
3–1
W
22 Apr
@ Bournemouth
2–2
D
13 Apr
@ Manchester United
2–1
W
15 Mar
@ Crystal Palace
0–0
D
8 Mar
vs Norwich
3–0
W
3 Mar
vs Sunderland
0–1
L
1.7Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
50%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Brighton – last 4
WLWW
21 Apr
vs Chelsea
3–0
W
4 Mar
vs Arsenal
0–1
L
1 Mar
vs Nottingham Forest
2–1
W
21 Feb
@ Brentford
2–0
W
1.8Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
25%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Leeds and Brighton.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 75% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Leeds vs Brighton?
On our numbers Leeds have a 28% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Brighton 47%.
How many goals will there be in Leeds vs Brighton?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 52% likely and both teams score 60% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Leeds vs Brighton?
Our predicted score is Leeds 1–1 Brighton, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is Leeds vs Brighton?
Leeds vs Brighton (Premier League) kicks off on Sunday 17 May 2026 at 15:00 (West Africa Time) at Elland Road.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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