AZ Alkmaar 66%Draw 19%NAC Breda 15%Expected goals 2.22 – 0.99
66%
Betarazi pick
AZ Alkmaar to win
Good pick · fair odds 1.52 · bookmaker 1.34 · Lost ✗
6/10Rating
1.34Odds
Picks by market
ResultAZ Alkmaar to win ✗66% · @1.34
Double chanceAZ Alkmaar or draw ✓85% · @1.08
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓59% · @1.57
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓84% · @1.10
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.16
AZ Alkmaar vs NAC Breda: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
13:30 WAT, Sunday 17 May: AZ Alkmaar v NAC Breda in the Eredivisie, played at AFAS Stadion.
Current form
AZ Alkmaar, last 5: DDLLW Their latest outing: 0–0 draw with GO Ahead Eagles, away. Goals for and against: 1.7 scored, 1.3 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
NAC Breda, last 5: DDLDL Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with Fortuna Sittard, away. Away from home the record reads 0 won, 2 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.8 goals a game.
Momentum favours AZ Alkmaar, collecting 1.3 points per game to 0.6 for NAC Breda.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give AZ Alkmaar 2.2 xG, NAC Breda 1.0 xG – a total near 3.2. Both nets should be busy – over 2.5 sits at 65% and GG at 59%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – AZ Alkmaar 66%, draw 19%, NAC Breda 15%.
GG/NG: GG (59%) at 1.57.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was AZ Alkmaar to win (66%, odds 1.34). Most likely score in line with that pick: AZ Alkmaar 2–0 NAC Breda. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
AZ Alkmaar66%fair 1.52 · @1.34
Draw19%fair 5.13 · @5.30
NAC Breda15%fair 6.79 · @7.40
3.21Expected goals
2.22AZ Alkmaar xG
0.99NAC Breda xG
59%Both score
65%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
2–010%
2–110%
1–09%
1–19%
3–07%
3–17%
From our goals model: AZ Alkmaar 2.2 – 1.0 NAC Breda expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
AZ Alkmaar to win✗
66%
1.52
1.34
Double chance
AZ Alkmaar or draw✓
85%
1.17
1.08
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
59%
1.70
1.57
Draw no bet
AZ Alkmaar (draw no bet)
82%
1.22
–
Asian handicap
AZ Alkmaar -0.5 (Asian handicap)✗
65%
1.53
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
84%
1.19
1.10
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
65%
1.53
1.38
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
56%
1.79
1.83
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✗
74%
1.36
1.35
First team to score
AZ Alkmaar to score first✓
66%
1.51
–
Half-time result
AZ Alkmaar ahead at half-time✓
48%
2.08
–
Half-time / full-time
HT AZ Alkmaar / FT AZ Alkmaar✗
43%
2.34
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
10%
10.16
–
Recent results
AZ Alkmaar – last 6
DDLLWW
23 Apr
@ GO Ahead Eagles
0–0
D
16 Apr
vs Shakhtar Donetsk
2–2
D
9 Apr
@ Shakhtar Donetsk
0–3
L
22 Mar
@ Groningen
0–3
L
19 Mar
@ Sparta Praha
4–0
W
15 Mar
vs Heracles
4–0
W
1.7Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
17%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
NAC Breda – last 5
DDLDL
12 Apr
@ Fortuna Sittard
1–1
D
5 Apr
vs Sparta Rotterdam
0–0
D
15 Mar
@ GO Ahead Eagles
0–6
L
8 Mar
vs Feyenoord
3–3
D
27 Feb
@ Telstar
0–3
L
0.8Scored / game
2.6Conceded / game
40%Both scored
60%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between AZ Alkmaar and NAC Breda.
What is the prediction for AZ Alkmaar vs NAC Breda?
Our pick is AZ Alkmaar to win with a 66% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.34.
Who will win AZ Alkmaar vs NAC Breda?
On our numbers AZ Alkmaar have a 66% chance of winning, the draw 19% and NAC Breda 15%.
How many goals will there be in AZ Alkmaar vs NAC Breda?
We expect about 3.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 65% likely and both teams score 59% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for AZ Alkmaar vs NAC Breda?
Our predicted score is AZ Alkmaar 2–0 NAC Breda, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.2 goals in total.
When is AZ Alkmaar vs NAC Breda?
AZ Alkmaar vs NAC Breda (Eredivisie) kicks off on Sunday 17 May 2026 at 13:30 (West Africa Time) at AFAS Stadion.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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