Heerenveen vs Ajax: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
13:30 WAT, Sunday 17 May: Heerenveen v Ajax in the Eredivisie, played at Abe Lenstra Stadion. In the table, Heerenveen are 6th, upper half, on 21 points after 12 matches; Ajax are 3rd (among the top four) with 25.
Current form
Heerenveen, last 4: WWDW Their latest outing: 2–0 win over FC Volendam, away. The attack is flying at 3.0 goals per game.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Heerenveen 1.6 xG, Ajax 1.9 xG – a total near 3.5. Both nets should be busy – over 2.5 sits at 70% and GG at 67%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Heerenveen 34%, draw 21%, Ajax 45%.
GG/NG: GG (67%) at 1.30.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 2.5 goals (70%, odds 1.33). Most likely score in line with that pick: Heerenveen 1–2 Ajax. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Heerenveen34%fair 2.95 · @2.78
Draw21%fair 4.67 · @4.10
Ajax45%fair 2.24 · @2.12
3.51Expected goals
1.62Heerenveen xG
1.89Ajax xG
67%Both score
70%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–19%
1–29%
2–17%
2–27%
0–16%
1–35%
From our goals model: Heerenveen 1.6 – 1.9 Ajax expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Ajax to win✗
45%
2.24
2.12
Double chance
Either team to win✗
79%
1.27
1.18
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
67%
1.49
1.30
Draw no bet
Ajax (draw no bet)
57%
1.76
–
Asian handicap
Heerenveen +1 (Asian handicap)✓
70%
1.44
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
87%
1.16
1.09
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
70%
1.44
1.33
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
51%
1.96
1.95
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
70%
1.44
1.42
First team to score
Ajax to score first✗
52%
1.92
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
36%
2.78
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Ajax / FT Ajax✗
27%
3.68
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
9%
11.57
–
Recent results
Heerenveen – last 4
WWDW
3 May
@ FC Volendam
2–0
W
5 Apr
vs Heracles
4–1
W
22 Mar
@ NEC Nijmegen
2–2
D
15 Feb
vs PEC Zwolle
4–2
W
3.0Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
75%Both scored
75%Over 2.5
Ajax – last 2
DD
22 Mar
@ Feyenoord
1–1
D
1 Mar
@ PEC Zwolle
0–0
D
0.5Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
50%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Heerenveen and Ajax.
Our pick is Over 2.5 goals with a 70% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.33.
Who will win Heerenveen vs Ajax?
On our numbers Heerenveen have a 34% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Ajax 45%.
How many goals will there be in Heerenveen vs Ajax?
We expect about 3.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 70% likely and both teams score 67% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Heerenveen vs Ajax?
Our predicted score is Heerenveen 1–2 Ajax, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.5 goals in total.
When is Heerenveen vs Ajax?
Heerenveen vs Ajax (Eredivisie) kicks off on Sunday 17 May 2026 at 13:30 (West Africa Time) at Abe Lenstra Stadion.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
NAC Breda3
FC Volendam1
Heracles1