Heracles vs Groningen: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Sunday 17 May the Eredivisie brings Heracles against Groningen at Asito Stadion. Kick-off: 13:30 WAT.
Current form
Heracles, last 5: LLLDL Their latest outing: 0–1 defeat to PEC Zwolle, away. In their own stadium the record reads 0 won, 1 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.3 goals a game.
Groningen, last 4: WDLL Their latest outing: 3–0 win over AZ Alkmaar, at home. Away from home the record reads 0 won, 2 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.8 scored, 1.5 conceded per game.
Momentum favours Groningen, collecting 1.0 points per game to 0.3 for Heracles.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Heracles 1.9 xG, Groningen 1.7 xG – a total near 3.6. That is an open game on paper: 69% for three or more goals, 67% for GG.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Heracles 33%, draw 20%, Groningen 47%.
GG/NG: GG (67%) at 1.48.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 2.5 goals (69%, odds 1.38). Most likely score in line with that pick: Heracles 2–1 Groningen. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Heracles33%fair 3.06 · @4.90
Draw20%fair 4.89 · @4.65
Groningen47%fair 2.13 · @1.53
3.61Expected goals
1.91Heracles xG
1.70Groningen xG
67%Both score
69%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–19%
2–18%
1–27%
2–27%
3–15%
1–05%
From our goals model: Heracles 1.9 – 1.7 Groningen expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Groningen to win✓
47%
2.13
1.53
Double chance
Either team to win✓
80%
1.26
1.14
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
67%
1.50
1.48
Draw no bet
Groningen (draw no bet)✓
59%
1.70
–
Asian handicap
Groningen +1 (Asian handicap)✓
71%
1.42
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
86%
1.16
1.11
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
69%
1.45
1.38
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
52%
1.92
1.80
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
71%
1.41
1.33
First team to score
Heracles to score first
51%
1.95
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
35%
2.82
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Heracles / FT Heracles✗
26%
3.79
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✓
7%
13.36
–
Recent results
Heracles – last 6
LLLDLD
3 May
@ PEC Zwolle
0–1
L
26 Apr
vs FC Volendam
0–2
L
5 Apr
@ Heerenveen
1–4
L
20 Mar
vs Excelsior
1–1
D
15 Mar
@ AZ Alkmaar
0–4
L
6 Mar
vs Utrecht
0–0
D
0.3Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Groningen – last 4
WDLL
22 Mar
vs AZ Alkmaar
3–0
W
13 Mar
@ PEC Zwolle
1–1
D
1 Mar
@ FC Volendam
2–3
L
22 Feb
@ Twente
1–2
L
1.8Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
75%Both scored
75%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Heracles and Groningen.
Our pick is Over 2.5 goals with a 69% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.38.
Who will win Heracles vs Groningen?
On our numbers Heracles have a 33% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Groningen 47%.
How many goals will there be in Heracles vs Groningen?
We expect about 3.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 69% likely and both teams score 67% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Heracles vs Groningen?
Our predicted score is Heracles 2–1 Groningen, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.6 goals in total.
When is Heracles vs Groningen?
Heracles vs Groningen (Eredivisie) kicks off on Sunday 17 May 2026 at 13:30 (West Africa Time) at Asito Stadion.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
NAC Breda3
FC Volendam1