Very strong pick · fair odds 1.28 · bookmaker 1.20 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.20Odds
Picks by market
ResultWaalwijk to win ✓55% · @1.70
Double chanceWaalwijk or draw ✓78% · @1.20
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓64% · @1.44
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓83% · fair 1.21
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗10% · fair 10.32
MVV vs Waalwijk: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
MVV welcome Waalwijk to De Geusselt for a Eerste Divisie fixture on Friday 3 April (19:00 WAT). In the table, MVV are 8th, upper half, on 0 points after 0 matches; Waalwijk are 12th (lower half) with 0. They are level on points, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
MVV, last 5: LDWDD Their latest outing: 0–5 defeat to Willem II, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 1 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.2 scored, 2.3 conceded per game.
Waalwijk, last 5: DWWWD Their latest outing: 2–2 draw with Almere City FC, away. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 0 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.8 scored, 1.2 conceded per game.
Momentum favours Waalwijk, collecting 1.8 points per game to 1.0 for MVV.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give MVV 1.2 xG, Waalwijk 1.9 xG – a total near 3.2. That is an open game on paper: 62% for three or more goals, 64% for GG. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – MVV 22%, draw 23%, Waalwijk 55%.
Lower-risk option: Waalwijk or draw (78%) at 1.20.
GG/NG: GG (64%) at 1.44.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Waalwijk or draw (78%, odds 1.20). Most likely score in line with that pick: MVV 1–1 Waalwijk. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
MVV22%fair 4.55 · @4.00
Draw23%fair 4.30 · @3.90
Waalwijk55%fair 1.83 · @1.70
3.18Expected goals
1.25MVV xG
1.93Waalwijk xG
64%Both score
62%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–110%
1–210%
0–18%
0–28%
2–16%
1–36%
From our goals model: MVV 1.2 – 1.9 Waalwijk expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
MVV
Waalwijk
Attack vs Eerste Divisie average
-19%
+2%
Goals conceded vs average
+14%
-10%
Our expected goals here
1.32
1.85
Our own ratings from every Eerste Divisie result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Waalwijk to win✓
55%
1.83
1.70
Double chance
Waalwijk or draw✓
78%
1.28
1.20
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
64%
1.56
1.44
Draw no bet
Waalwijk (draw no bet)✓
71%
1.40
–
Asian handicap
MVV +1 (Asian handicap)✗
60%
1.66
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
83%
1.21
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
62%
1.62
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
61%
1.65
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
78%
1.28
–
First team to score
Waalwijk to score first✓
58%
1.72
–
Half-time result
Waalwijk ahead at half-time✓
40%
2.49
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Waalwijk / FT Waalwijk✓
33%
3.00
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
10%
10.32
–
Recent results
MVV – last 6
LDWDDL
22 Mar
vs Willem II
0–5
L
16 Mar
@ Jong AZ
1–1
D
13 Mar
vs VVV Venlo
2–1
W
6 Mar
@ Dordrecht
1–1
D
27 Feb
vs De Graafschap
3–3
D
13 Feb
@ ADO Den Haag
0–3
L
1.2Scored / game
2.3Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Waalwijk – last 6
DWWWDL
17 Mar
@ Almere City FC
2–2
D
13 Mar
vs Jong AZ
2–1
W
6 Mar
@ VVV Venlo
3–0
W
27 Feb
vs FC Eindhoven
2–1
W
20 Feb
@ Cambuur
1–1
D
13 Feb
vs Roda
1–2
L
1.8Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
83%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between MVV and Waalwijk.
Our pick is Waalwijk or draw with a 78% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win MVV vs Waalwijk?
On our numbers MVV have a 22% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Waalwijk 55%.
How many goals will there be in MVV vs Waalwijk?
We expect about 3.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 62% likely and both teams score 64% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for MVV vs Waalwijk?
Our predicted score is MVV 1–1 Waalwijk, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.2 goals in total.
When is MVV vs Waalwijk?
MVV vs Waalwijk (Eerste Divisie) kicks off on Friday 3 April 2026 at 19:00 (West Africa Time) at De Geusselt.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
ADO Den Haag4
Cambuur0
Willem II1