Value bet: Barrow to win @ 2.80 – our chance 38% vs 36% implied by the price (edge +7%). Bigger price, more risk.
Picks by market
ResultBarrow to win38% · @2.80
Double chanceEither team to win74% · @1.28
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score60% · @1.75
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals74% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–19% · fair 11.58
Barrow vs Gillingham: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Saturday 28 February the League Two brings Barrow against Gillingham at Holker Street. Kick-off: 16:00 WAT.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Barrow 1.4 xG, Gillingham 1.3 xG – a total near 2.7. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 47%, GG 60%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Barrow 38%, draw 26%, Gillingham 36%.
GG/NG: GG (60%) at 1.75.
Price worth noting: Barrow to win @2.80 – the bookmaker implies 36%, our ratings say 38%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (74%, odds 1.25). Most likely score in line with that pick: Barrow 1–1 Gillingham. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Barrow38%fair 2.61 · @2.80
Draw26%fair 3.83 · @3.15
Gillingham36%fair 2.81 · @2.52
2.65Expected goals
1.40Barrow xG
1.25Gillingham xG
60%Both score
47%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–112%
1–010%
0–19%
2–19%
1–28%
0–07%
From our goals model: Barrow 1.4 – 1.3 Gillingham expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Barrow
Gillingham
Attack vs League Two average
-6%
+3%
Goals conceded vs average
+8%
+8%
Our expected goals here
1.57
1.28
Our own ratings from every League Two result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Barrow to win
38%
2.61
2.80 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win
74%
1.35
1.28
Both teams to score
Both teams to score
60%
1.66
1.75 ▲
Draw no bet
Barrow (draw no bet)
52%
1.93
–
Asian handicap
Gillingham +1 (Asian handicap)
76%
1.32
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals
72%
1.39
1.36
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals
53%
1.90
1.73
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals
74%
1.36
1.25
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals
87%
1.15
1.08
First team to score
Barrow to score first
49%
2.04
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time
43%
2.34
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Barrow / FT Barrow
24%
4.25
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1
9%
11.58
–
Recent results
Barrow – last 2
LL
21 Feb
@ Fleetwood Town
2–3
L
17 Feb
vs Harrogate Town
0–1
L
1.0Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Gillingham – last 2
LL
21 Feb
vs Oldham
0–3
L
17 Feb
@ Chesterfield
0–1
L
0.0Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
0%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Barrow and Gillingham.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 74% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Barrow vs Gillingham?
On our numbers Barrow have a 38% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Gillingham 36%.
How many goals will there be in Barrow vs Gillingham?
We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 47% likely and both teams score 60% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Barrow vs Gillingham?
Our predicted score is Barrow 1–1 Gillingham, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.7 goals in total.
When is Barrow vs Gillingham?
Barrow vs Gillingham (League Two) kicks off on Saturday 28 February 2026 at 16:00 (West Africa Time) at Holker Street.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Cambridge United1
Milton Keynes Dons1
Bromley
Notts County