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BetaraziFootball predictions · read by the numbers

Southampton v Charlton: numbers & prediction

Championship · England · St. Mary's Stadium

Charlton

Southampton 65%Draw 20%Charlton 15% Expected goals 1.98 – 0.73

75%

Betarazi pick

Over 1.5 goals

Strong pick · fair odds 1.34 · bookmaker 1.25 · Won ✓

8/10Rating

1.25Odds

Picks by market

ResultSouthampton to win ✗65% · @1.57

Double chanceSouthampton or draw ✓85% · @1.15

Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓54% · @1.90

GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓75% · @1.25

Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.52

Southampton vs Charlton: Betarazi preview and prediction

The fixture

16:00 WAT, Saturday 21 February: Southampton v Charlton in the Championship, played at St. Mary's Stadium. In the table, Southampton are 7th, upper half, on 24 points after 15 matches; Charlton are 19th (lower half) with 17.

Where the goals come from

Betarazi's ratings give Southampton 2.0 xG, Charlton 0.7 xG – a total near 2.7. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 52%, GG 54%.

Markets worth a look

1X2 according to our numbers – Southampton 65%, draw 20%, Charlton 15%.
Lower-risk option: Southampton or draw (85%) at 1.15.
GG/NG: GG (54%) at 1.90.

Our call before kick-off

Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (75%, odds 1.25). Most likely score in line with that pick: Southampton 2–0 Charlton. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.

Result chances

Southampton65%fair 1.53 · @1.57

Draw20%fair 4.95 · @4.33

Charlton15%fair 6.87 · @5.25

2.71Expected goals

1.98Southampton xG

0.73Charlton xG

54%Both score

52%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

1–013%

2–013%

1–110%

2–110%

3–09%

0–07%

From our goals model: Southampton 2.0 – 0.7 Charlton expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

Market	Most likely	Chance	Fair odds	Bookmaker
Match result	Southampton to win ✗	65%	1.53	1.57
Double chance	Southampton or draw ✓	85%	1.17	1.15
Both teams to score	Both teams to score ✓	54%	1.86	1.90
Draw no bet	Southampton (draw no bet)	82%	1.22	–
Asian handicap	Southampton -0.5 (Asian handicap) ✗	67%	1.49	–
Over/under 1.5 goals	Over 1.5 goals ✓	75%	1.34	1.25
Over/under 2.5 goals	Over 2.5 goals ✗	52%	1.94	1.75
Over/under 3.5 goals	Under 3.5 goals ✓	70%	1.43	1.35
Over/under 4.5 goals	Under 4.5 goals ✓	84%	1.19	1.13
First team to score	Southampton to score first	68%	1.46	–
Half-time result	Southampton ahead at half-time ✗	48%	2.10	–
Half-time / full-time	HT Southampton / FT Southampton ✗	43%	2.32	–
Correct score	Correct score 2–1 ✗	10%	10.52	–

Head to head

No previous meetings on record between Southampton and Charlton.

Southampton vs Charlton head-to-head page →

Championship table

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Birmingham	15	8	5	2	+14	29
2	Middlesbrough	15	8	5	2	+11	29
3	Stoke City	15	9	2	4	+6	29
4	Wolves	15	8	4	3	+8	28
5	West Brom	15	8	4	3	+8	28
6	Swansea	15	8	2	5	+4	26
7	Southampton	15	8	4	3	+14	24
8	QPR	15	6	6	3	+6	24
9	West Ham	15	6	5	4	+14	23
10	Sheffield Utd	15	6	4	5	+2	22
11	Portsmouth	15	6	4	5	+2	22
12	Norwich	15	7	0	8	+8	21
13	Blackburn	15	6	3	6	-1	21
14	Cardiff	15	4	6	5	0	18
15	Wrexham	15	4	6	5	-2	18
16	Millwall	15	5	3	7	-4	18
17	Bristol City	15	5	3	7	-8	18
18	Bolton	15	5	2	8	-9	17
19	Charlton	15	4	5	6	-10	17
20	Watford	15	4	3	8	-10	15
21	Lincoln	15	4	3	8	-11	15
22	Burnley	15	1	7	7	-9	10
23	Derby	15	2	4	9	-16	10
24	Preston	15	2	2	11	-17	8

More Championship predictions

League hub

West Brom0

Coventry2 137%3.40X24%3.50239%2.10 1.5–1.3xG O1.5Over 1.5 goals 75%@1.29 ✓

Stoke City2

Leicester2 140%2.25X25%3.40235%3.10 1.4–1.3xG O1.5Over 1.5 goals 72%@1.33 ✓

Hull City1

QPR3 142%2.30X27%3.40231%3.00 1.4–1.1xG U3.5Under 3.5 goals 74%@1.27 ✗

Swansea1

Bristol City0 145%2.15X25%3.50230%3.30 1.5–1.1xG U3.5Under 3.5 goals 73%@1.28 ✓

Watford2

Derby0 141%2.20X26%3.30232%3.25 1.4–1.1xG U3.5Under 3.5 goals 76%@1.23 ✓

Middlesbrough0

Oxford United0 155%1.42X22%4.80223%7.00 1.5–1.1xG O1.5Over 1.5 goals 74%@1.24 ✗

Millwall1

Portsmouth3 149%1.81X27%3.45224%4.35 1.4–1.0xG U3.5Under 3.5 goals 76%@1.25 ✗

Wrexham5

Ipswich3 133%3.40X25%3.40242%2.15 1.3–1.4xG O1.5Over 1.5 goals 73%@1.33 ✓

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Southampton vs Charlton?

Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 75% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.

Who will win Southampton vs Charlton?

On our numbers Southampton have a 65% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Charlton 15%.

How many goals will there be in Southampton vs Charlton?

We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 52% likely and both teams score 54% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for Southampton vs Charlton?

Our predicted score is Southampton 2–0 Charlton, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.7 goals in total.

When is Southampton vs Charlton?

Southampton vs Charlton (Championship) kicks off on Saturday 21 February 2026 at 16:00 (West Africa Time) at St. Mary's Stadium.

Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.