Value bet: Both teams to score @ 1.88 – our chance 58% vs 53% implied by the price (edge +9%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultWatford to win ✓41% · @2.20
Double chanceEither team to win ✓74% · @1.32
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗58% · @1.88
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓76% · @1.23
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 11.58
Watford vs Derby: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Saturday 21 February the Championship brings Watford against Derby at Vicarage Road. Kick-off: 16:00 WAT. In the table, Watford are 20th, lower half, on 15 points after 15 matches; Derby are 23rd (in the drop zone) with 10.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Watford 1.4 xG, Derby 1.1 xG – a total near 2.5. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 45%, GG 58%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Watford 41%, draw 26%, Derby 32%.
GG/NG: GG (58%) at 1.88.
Price worth noting: Both teams to score @1.88 – the bookmaker implies 53%, our ratings say 58%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (76%, odds 1.23). Most likely score in line with that pick: Watford 1–1 Derby. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Watford41%fair 2.42 · @2.20
Draw26%fair 3.78 · @3.30
Derby32%fair 3.11 · @3.25
2.49Expected goals
1.36Watford xG
1.14Derby xG
58%Both score
45%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–113%
1–011%
0–19%
2–19%
0–08%
2–08%
From our goals model: Watford 1.4 – 1.1 Derby expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Watford to win✓
41%
2.42
2.20
Double chance
Either team to win✓
74%
1.36
1.32
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
58%
1.72
1.88 ▲
Draw no bet
Watford (draw no bet)✓
56%
1.78
–
Asian handicap
Derby +1 (Asian handicap)✗
75%
1.33
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
70%
1.43
1.35
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
55%
1.82
1.66
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
76%
1.32
1.23
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
88%
1.13
1.07
First team to score
Watford to score first✓
50%
2.01
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
44%
2.27
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Watford / FT Watford✓
24%
4.12
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
11.58
–
Recent results
Watford
No recent results on record.
Derby
No recent results on record.
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Watford and Derby.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 76% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.23.
Who will win Watford vs Derby?
On our numbers Watford have a 41% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Derby 32%.
How many goals will there be in Watford vs Derby?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 45% likely and both teams score 58% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Watford vs Derby?
Our predicted score is Watford 1–1 Derby, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Watford vs Derby?
Watford vs Derby (Championship) kicks off on Saturday 21 February 2026 at 16:00 (West Africa Time) at Vicarage Road.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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