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BetaraziFootball predictions · read by the numbers

Millwall v Portsmouth: numbers & prediction

Championship · England · The Den

Portsmouth

Millwall 49%Draw 27%Portsmouth 24% Expected goals 1.40 – 1.03

76%

Betarazi pick

Under 3.5 goals

Strong pick · fair odds 1.32 · bookmaker 1.25 · Lost ✗

8/10Rating

1.25Odds

Picks by market

ResultMillwall to win ✗49% · @1.81

Double chanceMillwall or draw ✗76% · @1.20

Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓51% · @1.91

GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗76% · @1.25

Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 11.24

Millwall vs Portsmouth: Betarazi preview and prediction

The fixture

On Saturday 21 February the Championship brings Millwall against Portsmouth at The Den. Kick-off: 16:00 WAT. In the table, Millwall are 16th, lower half, on 18 points after 15 matches; Portsmouth are 11th (upper half) with 22.

Where the goals come from

Betarazi's ratings give Millwall 1.4 xG, Portsmouth 1.0 xG – a total near 2.4. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 45%, GG 51%.

Markets worth a look

1X2 according to our numbers – Millwall 49%, draw 27%, Portsmouth 24%.
Lower-risk option: Millwall or draw (76%) at 1.20.
GG/NG: GG (51%) at 1.91.

Our call before kick-off

Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (76%, odds 1.25). Most likely score in line with that pick: Millwall 1–1 Portsmouth. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.

Result chances

Millwall49%fair 2.04 · @1.81

Draw27%fair 3.74 · @3.45

Portsmouth24%fair 4.13 · @4.35

2.43Expected goals

1.40Millwall xG

1.03Portsmouth xG

51%Both score

45%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

1–113%

1–012%

0–19%

2–19%

0–09%

2–09%

From our goals model: Millwall 1.4 – 1.0 Portsmouth expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

Market	Most likely	Chance	Fair odds	Bookmaker
Match result	Millwall to win ✗	49%	2.04	1.81
Double chance	Millwall or draw ✗	76%	1.32	1.20
Both teams to score	Both teams to score ✓	51%	1.95	1.91
Draw no bet	Millwall (draw no bet) ✗	67%	1.49	–
Asian handicap	Portsmouth +1 (Asian handicap) ✓	71%	1.40	–
Over/under 1.5 goals	Over 1.5 goals ✓	70%	1.43	1.35
Over/under 2.5 goals	Under 2.5 goals ✗	55%	1.82	1.75
Over/under 3.5 goals	Under 3.5 goals ✗	76%	1.32	1.25
Over/under 4.5 goals	Under 4.5 goals ✓	89%	1.13	1.08
First team to score	Millwall to score first	53%	1.90	–
Half-time result	Level at half-time ✓	45%	2.24	–
Half-time / full-time	HT Millwall / FT Millwall ✗	27%	3.74	–
Correct score	Correct score 2–1 ✗	9%	11.24	–

Head to head

No previous meetings on record between Millwall and Portsmouth.

Millwall vs Portsmouth head-to-head page →

Championship table

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Birmingham	15	8	5	2	+14	29
2	Middlesbrough	15	8	5	2	+11	29
3	Stoke City	15	9	2	4	+6	29
4	Wolves	15	8	4	3	+8	28
5	West Brom	15	8	4	3	+8	28
6	Swansea	15	8	2	5	+4	26
7	Southampton	15	8	4	3	+14	24
8	QPR	15	6	6	3	+6	24
9	West Ham	15	6	5	4	+14	23
10	Sheffield Utd	15	6	4	5	+2	22
11	Portsmouth	15	6	4	5	+2	22
12	Norwich	15	7	0	8	+8	21
13	Blackburn	15	6	3	6	-1	21
14	Cardiff	15	4	6	5	0	18
15	Wrexham	15	4	6	5	-2	18
16	Millwall	15	5	3	7	-4	18
17	Bristol City	15	5	3	7	-8	18
18	Bolton	15	5	2	8	-9	17
19	Charlton	15	4	5	6	-10	17
20	Watford	15	4	3	8	-10	15
21	Lincoln	15	4	3	8	-11	15
22	Burnley	15	1	7	7	-9	10
23	Derby	15	2	4	9	-16	10
24	Preston	15	2	2	11	-17	8

More Championship predictions

League hub

West Brom0

Coventry2 137%3.40X24%3.50239%2.10 1.5–1.3xG O1.5Over 1.5 goals 75%@1.29 ✓

Stoke City2

Leicester2 140%2.25X25%3.40235%3.10 1.4–1.3xG O1.5Over 1.5 goals 72%@1.33 ✓

Hull City1

QPR3 142%2.30X27%3.40231%3.00 1.4–1.1xG U3.5Under 3.5 goals 74%@1.27 ✗

Swansea1

Bristol City0 145%2.15X25%3.50230%3.30 1.5–1.1xG U3.5Under 3.5 goals 73%@1.28 ✓

Southampton1

Charlton1 165%1.57X20%4.33215%5.25 2.0–0.7xG O1.5Over 1.5 goals 75%@1.25 ✓

Watford2

Derby0 141%2.20X26%3.30232%3.25 1.4–1.1xG U3.5Under 3.5 goals 76%@1.23 ✓

Middlesbrough0

Oxford United0 155%1.42X22%4.80223%7.00 1.5–1.1xG O1.5Over 1.5 goals 74%@1.24 ✗

Wrexham5

Ipswich3 133%3.40X25%3.40242%2.15 1.3–1.4xG O1.5Over 1.5 goals 73%@1.33 ✓

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Millwall vs Portsmouth?

Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 76% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.

Who will win Millwall vs Portsmouth?

On our numbers Millwall have a 49% chance of winning, the draw 27% and Portsmouth 24%.

How many goals will there be in Millwall vs Portsmouth?

We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 45% likely and both teams score 51% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for Millwall vs Portsmouth?

Our predicted score is Millwall 1–1 Portsmouth, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.

When is Millwall vs Portsmouth?

Millwall vs Portsmouth (Championship) kicks off on Saturday 21 February 2026 at 16:00 (West Africa Time) at The Den.

Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.