Derby v Stoke City Prediction & Expected Goals (6 Apr) – Odds, Stats, Pick

Picks by market

ResultDerby to win ✓45% · @1.85

Double chanceEither team to win ✓74% · @1.25

Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗57% · @1.77

GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓73% · @1.30

Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗8% · fair 12.28

Derby vs Stoke City: Betarazi preview and prediction

The fixture

On Monday 6 April the Championship brings Derby against Stoke City at Pride Park. Kick-off: 15:00 WAT. In the table, Derby are 23rd, in the drop zone, on 10 points after 15 matches; Stoke City are 3rd (among the top four) with 29. There are 19 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.

Current form

Derby, last 5: LWLWL Their latest outing: 2–3 defeat to Coventry, away. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 1.8 conceded per game.

Stoke City, last 5: WLDWD Their latest outing: 2–0 win over Sheffield Wednesday, at home. Goals for and against: 1.8 scored, 1.8 conceded per game.

Where the goals come from

Betarazi's ratings give Derby 1.3 xG, Stoke City 1.3 xG – a total near 2.6. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 49%, GG 57%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.

Markets worth a look

1X2 according to our numbers – Derby 45%, draw 26%, Stoke City 29%.
GG/NG: GG (57%) at 1.77.
Price worth noting: Stoke City to win @4.10 – the bookmaker implies 24%, our ratings say 29%.

Our call before kick-off

Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (73%, odds 1.30). Most likely score in line with that pick: Derby 1–1 Stoke City. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.

Result chances

Derby45%fair 2.22 · @1.85

Draw26%fair 3.84 · @3.50

Stoke City29%fair 3.47 · @4.10

2.61Expected goals

1.30Derby xG

1.31Stoke City xG

57%Both score

49%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

1–113%

0–110%

1–010%

1–28%

2–18%

0–07%

From our goals model: Derby 1.3 – 1.3 Stoke City expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

Market	Most likely	Chance	Fair odds	Bookmaker
Match result	Derby to win ✓	45%	2.22	1.85
Double chance	Either team to win ✓	74%	1.35	1.25
Both teams to score	Both teams to score ✗	57%	1.76	1.77
Draw no bet	Derby (draw no bet) ✓	61%	1.64	–
Asian handicap	Derby +0.5 (Asian handicap) ✓	63%	1.59	–
Over/under 1.5 goals	Over 1.5 goals ✓	73%	1.37	1.30
Over/under 2.5 goals	Under 2.5 goals ✓	51%	1.95	1.85
Over/under 3.5 goals	Under 3.5 goals ✓	72%	1.38	1.33
Over/under 4.5 goals	Under 4.5 goals ✓	86%	1.16	1.11
First team to score	Stoke City to score first ✗	46%	2.15	–
Half-time result	Level at half-time ✓	43%	2.32	–
Half-time / full-time	HT Stoke City / FT Stoke City ✗	21%	4.69	–
Correct score	Correct score 2–1 ✗	8%	12.28	–

Derby – last 6

LWLWLL

3 Apr	@ Coventry	2–3	L
16 Mar	@ Portsmouth	1–0	W
10 Mar	@ Millwall	0–1	L
28 Feb	vs Blackburn	3–1	W
24 Feb	@ Hull City	2–4	L
21 Feb	@ Watford	0–2	L

1.3Scored / game

1.8Conceded / game

50%Both scored

50%Over 2.5

Stoke City – last 6

WLDWDL

3 Apr	vs Sheffield Wednesday	2–0	W
20 Mar	@ Preston	1–3	L
10 Mar	vs Ipswich	3–3	D
25 Feb	vs Oxford United	2–1	W
21 Feb	vs Leicester	2–2	D
15 Feb	vs Fulham	1–2	L

1.8Scored / game

1.8Conceded / game

83%Both scored

83%Over 2.5

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Birmingham	15	8	5	2	+14	29
2	Middlesbrough	15	8	5	2	+11	29
3	Stoke City	15	9	2	4	+6	29
4	Wolves	15	8	4	3	+8	28
5	West Brom	15	8	4	3	+8	28
6	Swansea	15	8	2	5	+4	26
7	Southampton	15	8	4	3	+14	24
8	QPR	15	6	6	3	+6	24
9	West Ham	15	6	5	4	+14	23
10	Sheffield Utd	15	6	4	5	+2	22
11	Portsmouth	15	6	4	5	+2	22
12	Norwich	15	7	0	8	+8	21
13	Blackburn	15	6	3	6	-1	21
14	Cardiff	15	4	6	5	0	18
15	Wrexham	15	4	6	5	-2	18
16	Millwall	15	5	3	7	-4	18
17	Bristol City	15	5	3	7	-8	18
18	Bolton	15	5	2	8	-9	17
19	Charlton	15	4	5	6	-10	17
20	Watford	15	4	3	8	-10	15
21	Lincoln	15	4	3	8	-11	15
22	Burnley	15	1	7	7	-9	10
23	Derby	15	2	4	9	-16	10
24	Preston	15	2	2	11	-17	8

Team

Pts

+14

+11

+14

+14

-1

-2

-4

-8

-9

-10

-10

-11

-9

-16

-17

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Derby vs Stoke City?

Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 73% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.30.

Who will win Derby vs Stoke City?

On our numbers Derby have a 45% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Stoke City 29%.

How many goals will there be in Derby vs Stoke City?

We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 49% likely and both teams score 57% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for Derby vs Stoke City?

Our predicted score is Derby 1–1 Stoke City, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.

When is Derby vs Stoke City?

Derby vs Stoke City (Championship) kicks off on Monday 6 April 2026 at 15:00 (West Africa Time) at Pride Park.

Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.

Derby v Stoke City: numbers & prediction