Norwich v Derby Prediction & Expected Goals (21 Apr) – Odds, Stats, Pick

Picks by market

ResultNorwich to win ✓55% · @1.96

Double chanceEither team to win ✓78% · @1.25

Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓60% · @1.67

GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓78% · @1.25

Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✓10% · fair 10.05

Norwich vs Derby: Betarazi preview and prediction

The fixture

Norwich welcome Derby to Carrow Road for a Championship fixture on Tuesday 21 April (19:45 WAT). In the table, Norwich are 12th, upper half, on 21 points after 15 matches; Derby are 23rd (in the drop zone) with 10.

Current form

Norwich, last 5: WDLWL Their latest outing: 2–1 win over Millwall, away. Goals for and against: 1.2 scored, 1.2 conceded per game.

Derby, last 5: WLWLW Their latest outing: 2–0 win over Stoke City, at home. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 3 lost from 4. Goals for and against: 1.7 scored, 1.5 conceded per game.

Where the goals come from

Betarazi's ratings give Norwich 2.0 xG, Derby 1.0 xG – a total near 3.0. Both nets should be busy – over 2.5 sits at 55% and GG at 60%.

Markets worth a look

1X2 according to our numbers – Norwich 55%, draw 22%, Derby 23%.
GG/NG: GG (60%) at 1.67.
Price worth noting: Norwich to win @1.96 – the bookmaker implies 51%, our ratings say 55%.

Our call before kick-off

Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (78%, odds 1.25). Most likely score in line with that pick: Norwich 1–1 Derby. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.

Result chances

Norwich55%fair 1.82 · @1.96

Draw22%fair 4.60 · @3.50

Derby23%fair 4.27 · @3.70

3.01Expected goals

1.98Norwich xG

1.03Derby xG

60%Both score

55%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

1–110%

2–110%

1–010%

2–010%

3–17%

3–06%

From our goals model: Norwich 2.0 – 1.0 Derby expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

Market	Most likely	Chance	Fair odds	Bookmaker
Match result	Norwich to win ✓	55%	1.82	1.96 ▲
Double chance	Either team to win ✓	78%	1.28	1.25
Both teams to score	Both teams to score ✓	60%	1.68	1.67
Draw no bet	Norwich (draw no bet) ✓	70%	1.43	–
Asian handicap	Derby +1.5 (Asian handicap) ✓	64%	1.56	–
Over/under 1.5 goals	Over 1.5 goals ✓	78%	1.29	1.25
Over/under 2.5 goals	Over 2.5 goals ✓	55%	1.81	1.80
Over/under 3.5 goals	Under 3.5 goals ✓	66%	1.50	1.38
Over/under 4.5 goals	Under 4.5 goals ✓	82%	1.21	1.13
First team to score	Norwich to score first ✓	63%	1.60	–
Half-time result	Norwich ahead at half-time ✓	44%	2.29	–
Half-time / full-time	HT Norwich / FT Norwich ✓	38%	2.65	–
Correct score	Correct score 2–1 ✓	10%	10.05	–

Norwich – last 6

WDLWLW

6 Apr	@ Millwall	2–1	W
3 Apr	vs Portsmouth	1–1	D
18 Mar	@ Southampton	0–1	L
11 Mar	vs Sheffield Utd	2–1	W
8 Mar	@ Leeds	0–3	L
28 Feb	@ Leicester	2–0	W

1.2Scored / game

1.2Conceded / game

50%Both scored

50%Over 2.5

Derby – last 6

WLWLWL

6 Apr	vs Stoke City	2–0	W
3 Apr	@ Coventry	2–3	L
16 Mar	@ Portsmouth	1–0	W
10 Mar	@ Millwall	0–1	L
28 Feb	vs Blackburn	3–1	W
24 Feb	@ Hull City	2–4	L

1.7Scored / game

1.5Conceded / game

50%Both scored

50%Over 2.5

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Birmingham	15	8	5	2	+14	29
2	Middlesbrough	15	8	5	2	+11	29
3	Stoke City	15	9	2	4	+6	29
4	Wolves	15	8	4	3	+8	28
5	West Brom	15	8	4	3	+8	28
6	Swansea	15	8	2	5	+4	26
7	Southampton	15	8	4	3	+14	24
8	QPR	15	6	6	3	+6	24
9	West Ham	15	6	5	4	+14	23
10	Sheffield Utd	15	6	4	5	+2	22
11	Portsmouth	15	6	4	5	+2	22
12	Norwich	15	7	0	8	+8	21
13	Blackburn	15	6	3	6	-1	21
14	Cardiff	15	4	6	5	0	18
15	Wrexham	15	4	6	5	-2	18
16	Millwall	15	5	3	7	-4	18
17	Bristol City	15	5	3	7	-8	18
18	Bolton	15	5	2	8	-9	17
19	Charlton	15	4	5	6	-10	17
20	Watford	15	4	3	8	-10	15
21	Lincoln	15	4	3	8	-11	15
22	Burnley	15	1	7	7	-9	10
23	Derby	15	2	4	9	-16	10
24	Preston	15	2	2	11	-17	8

Team

Pts

+14

+11

+14

+14

-1

-2

-4

-8

-9

-10

-10

-11

-9

-16

-17

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Norwich vs Derby?

Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 78% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.

Who will win Norwich vs Derby?

On our numbers Norwich have a 55% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Derby 23%.

How many goals will there be in Norwich vs Derby?

We expect about 3.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 55% likely and both teams score 60% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for Norwich vs Derby?

Our predicted score is Norwich 1–1 Derby, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.0 goals in total.

When is Norwich vs Derby?

Norwich vs Derby (Championship) kicks off on Tuesday 21 April 2026 at 19:45 (West Africa Time) at Carrow Road.

Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.

Norwich v Derby: numbers & prediction