Value bet: Stoke City to win @ 3.75 – our chance 33% vs 27% implied by the price (edge +24%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultMillwall to win ✓43% · @1.91
Double chanceEither team to win ✓76% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓58% · @1.73
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓73% · @1.28
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗8% · fair 12.87
Stoke City vs Millwall: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Tuesday 21 April the Championship brings Stoke City against Millwall at Bet365 Stadium. Kick-off: 19:45 WAT. In the table, Stoke City are 3rd, among the top four, on 29 points after 15 matches; Millwall are 16th (lower half) with 18.
Current form
Stoke City, last 5: LWLDW Their latest outing: 0–2 defeat to Derby, away. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 0 lost from 4. Goals for and against: 1.7 scored, 1.8 conceded per game.
Millwall, last 5: DLWWW Their latest outing: 0–0 draw with West Brom, away. Away from home the record reads 2 won, 0 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.7 scored, 0.7 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Momentum favours Millwall, collecting 2.2 points per game to 1.3 for Stoke City.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Stoke City 1.3 xG, Millwall 1.2 xG – a total near 2.5. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 49%, GG 58%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Stoke City 33%, draw 24%, Millwall 43%.
GG/NG: GG (58%) at 1.73.
Price worth noting: Stoke City to win @3.75 – the bookmaker implies 27%, our ratings say 33%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (73%, odds 1.33). Most likely score in line with that pick: Stoke City 1–1 Millwall. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Stoke City33%fair 3.03 · @3.75
Draw24%fair 4.12 · @3.55
Millwall43%fair 2.34 · @1.91
2.55Expected goals
1.32Stoke City xG
1.23Millwall xG
58%Both score
49%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–113%
1–010%
0–110%
2–18%
0–08%
1–28%
From our goals model: Stoke City 1.3 – 1.2 Millwall expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Millwall to win✓
43%
2.34
1.91
Double chance
Either team to win✓
76%
1.32
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
58%
1.72
1.73
Draw no bet
Millwall (draw no bet)✓
56%
1.77
–
Asian handicap
Millwall +0.5 (Asian handicap)✓
61%
1.64
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
73%
1.37
1.28
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
51%
1.95
1.90
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
73%
1.38
1.33
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
87%
1.15
1.11
First team to score
Stoke City to score first✗
48%
2.09
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
44%
2.29
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Stoke City / FT Stoke City✗
23%
4.44
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
8%
12.87
–
Recent results
Stoke City – last 6
LWLDWD
6 Apr
@ Derby
0–2
L
3 Apr
vs Sheffield Wednesday
2–0
W
20 Mar
@ Preston
1–3
L
10 Mar
vs Ipswich
3–3
D
25 Feb
vs Oxford United
2–1
W
21 Feb
vs Leicester
2–2
D
1.7Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Millwall – last 6
DLWWWW
10 Apr
@ West Brom
0–0
D
6 Apr
vs Norwich
1–2
L
3 Apr
@ Middlesbrough
2–1
W
10 Mar
vs Derby
1–0
W
7 Mar
@ Hull City
3–1
W
25 Feb
vs Birmingham
3–0
W
1.7Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
50%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Stoke City and Millwall.
What is the prediction for Stoke City vs Millwall?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 73% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.33.
Who will win Stoke City vs Millwall?
On our numbers Stoke City have a 33% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Millwall 43%.
How many goals will there be in Stoke City vs Millwall?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 49% likely and both teams score 58% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Stoke City vs Millwall?
Our predicted score is Stoke City 1–1 Millwall, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Stoke City vs Millwall?
Stoke City vs Millwall (Championship) kicks off on Tuesday 21 April 2026 at 19:45 (West Africa Time) at Bet365 Stadium.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Oxford United0
Coventry5
Leicester2
Hull City2