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BetaraziFootball predictions · read by the numbers

Southampton v Bristol City: numbers & prediction

Championship · England · St. Mary's Stadium

Southampton

WWWDW
2–2
FT

Bristol City

WWLDL
Southampton 66%Draw 21%Bristol City 13% Expected goals 2.02 – 0.80
77%
Betarazi pick

Over 1.5 goals

Strong pick · fair odds 1.29 · bookmaker 1.22 · Won ✓

8/10Rating
1.22Odds

Picks by market

ResultSouthampton to win ✗66% · @1.42
Double chanceSouthampton or draw ✓87% · @1.09
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓54% · @1.80
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓77% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.28

Southampton vs Bristol City: Betarazi preview and prediction

The fixture

Southampton welcome Bristol City to St. Mary's Stadium for a Championship fixture on Tuesday 21 April (19:45 WAT). In the table, Southampton are 7th, upper half, on 24 points after 15 matches; Bristol City are 17th (lower half) with 18.

Current form

Southampton, last 5: WWWDW Their latest outing: 3–0 win over Blackburn, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 3 won, 0 lost from 3. The attack is flying at 2.7 goals per game. Defensively they have kept 4 clean sheets in that run.

Bristol City, last 5: WWLDL Their latest outing: 1–0 win over Sheffield Utd, at home. Away from home the record reads 2 won, 1 lost from 4. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 1.0 conceded per game.

Momentum favours Southampton, collecting 2.7 points per game to 1.7 for Bristol City.

Where the goals come from

Betarazi's ratings give Southampton 2.0 xG, Bristol City 0.8 xG – a total near 2.8. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 55%, GG 54%.

Markets worth a look

  • 1X2 according to our numbers – Southampton 66%, draw 21%, Bristol City 13%.
  • GG/NG: GG (54%) at 1.80.

Our call before kick-off

Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (77%, odds 1.22). Most likely score in line with that pick: Southampton 2–0 Bristol City. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.

Result chances

Southampton66%fair 1.51 · @1.42
Draw21%fair 4.67 · @4.35
Bristol City13%fair 7.99 · @7.30
2.82Expected goals
2.02Southampton xG
0.80Bristol City xG
54%Both score
55%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

2–012%
1–012%
2–110%
1–110%
3–08%
3–17%

From our goals model: Southampton 2.0 – 0.8 Bristol City expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

MarketMost likelyChanceFair oddsBookmaker
Match resultSouthampton to win ✗66%1.511.42
Double chanceSouthampton or draw ✓87%1.141.09
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score ✓54%1.841.80
Draw no betSouthampton (draw no bet)84%1.19–
Asian handicapSouthampton -0.5 (Asian handicap) ✗66%1.52–
Over/under 1.5 goalsOver 1.5 goals ✓77%1.291.22
Over/under 2.5 goalsOver 2.5 goals ✓55%1.821.67
Over/under 3.5 goalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗66%1.501.48
Over/under 4.5 goalsUnder 4.5 goals ✓82%1.221.18
First team to scoreSouthampton to score first67%1.48–
Half-time resultSouthampton ahead at half-time ✗47%2.12–
Half-time / full-timeHT Southampton / FT Southampton ✗42%2.36–
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10%10.28–

Recent results

Southampton – last 6

WWWDWW
14 Aprvs Blackburn3–0W
7 Apr@ Wrexham5–1W
18 Marvs Norwich1–0W
11 Mar@ West Brom1–1D
8 Mar@ Fulham1–0W
24 Febvs QPR5–0W
2.7Scored / game
0.3Conceded / game
33%Both scored
50%Over 2.5

Bristol City – last 6

WWLDLW
6 Aprvs Sheffield Utd1–0W
3 Apr@ Charlton2–1W
10 Mar@ Leicester0–2L
3 Mar@ Port Vale0–0D
27 Febvs Watford1–2L
24 Feb@ Blackburn2–1W
1.0Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5

Head to head

No previous meetings on record between Southampton and Bristol City.

Southampton vs Bristol City head-to-head page →

Championship table

#TeamPWDLGDPts
1Birmingham15852+1429
2Middlesbrough15852+1129
3Stoke City15924+629
4Wolves15843+828
5West Brom15843+828
6Swansea15825+426
7Southampton15843+1424
8QPR15663+624
9West Ham15654+1423
10Sheffield Utd15645+222
11Portsmouth15645+222
12Norwich15708+821
13Blackburn15636-121
14Cardiff15465018
15Wrexham15465-218
16Millwall15537-418
17Bristol City15537-818
18Bolton15528-917
19Charlton15456-1017
20Watford15438-1015
21Lincoln15438-1115
22Burnley15177-910
23Derby15249-1610
24Preston152211-178

More Championship predictions

League hub
FT Norwich2 Derby1 155%1.96X22%3.50223%3.70 2.0–1.0xG O1.5Over 1.5 goals 78%@1.25 ✓
FT Oxford United0 Wrexham1 144%2.62X26%3.25230%2.62 1.5–1.0xG U3.5Under 3.5 goals 76%@1.25 ✓
FT Coventry5 Portsmouth1 156%1.64X23%3.80221%5.00 1.8–1.0xG O1.5Over 1.5 goals 76%@1.25 ✓
FT QPR1 Swansea2 145%2.25X25%3.30230%3.05 1.6–1.2xG O1.5Over 1.5 goals 74%@1.30 ✓
FT West Brom3 Watford0 159%1.81X22%3.55218%4.30 1.8–0.8xG 1XWest Brom or draw 82%@1.20 ✓
FT Stoke City1 Millwall3 133%3.75X24%3.55243%1.91 1.3–1.2xG U3.5Under 3.5 goals 73%@1.33 ✗
FT Leicester2 Hull City2 144%2.06X25%3.60231%3.25 1.5–1.2xG O1.5Over 1.5 goals 76%@1.25 ✓

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Southampton vs Bristol City?

Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 77% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.

Who will win Southampton vs Bristol City?

On our numbers Southampton have a 66% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Bristol City 13%.

How many goals will there be in Southampton vs Bristol City?

We expect about 2.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 55% likely and both teams score 54% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for Southampton vs Bristol City?

Our predicted score is Southampton 2–0 Bristol City, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.8 goals in total.

When is Southampton vs Bristol City?

Southampton vs Bristol City (Championship) kicks off on Tuesday 21 April 2026 at 19:45 (West Africa Time) at St. Mary's Stadium.

Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.