Value bet: Plymouth to win @ 3.00 – our chance 38% vs 33% implied by the price (edge +14%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultCardiff to win ✗38% · @2.15
Double chanceEither team to win ✓76% · @1.27
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓63% · @1.63
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓77% · @1.23
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗8% · fair 13.17
Plymouth vs Cardiff: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Saturday 21 February the League One brings Plymouth against Cardiff at Home Park. Kick-off: 13:30 WAT.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Plymouth 1.6 xG, Cardiff 1.3 xG – a total near 2.9. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 54%, GG 63%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Plymouth 38%, draw 24%, Cardiff 38%.
GG/NG: GG (63%) at 1.63.
Price worth noting: Plymouth to win @3.00 – the bookmaker implies 33%, our ratings say 38%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (77%, odds 1.23). Most likely score in line with that pick: Plymouth 1–1 Cardiff. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Plymouth38%fair 2.62 · @3.00
Draw24%fair 4.22 · @3.60
Cardiff38%fair 2.62 · @2.15
2.88Expected goals
1.56Plymouth xG
1.31Cardiff xG
63%Both score
54%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–112%
2–19%
1–09%
1–28%
0–17%
2–07%
From our goals model: Plymouth 1.6 – 1.3 Cardiff expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Plymouth
Cardiff
Attack vs League One average
+15%
-4%
Goals conceded vs average
-3%
+4%
Our expected goals here
1.78
1.14
Our own ratings from every League One result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Cardiff to win✗
38%
2.62
2.15
Double chance
Either team to win✓
76%
1.31
1.27
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
63%
1.59
1.63
Draw no bet
Cardiff (draw no bet)✗
50%
2.00
–
Asian handicap
Cardiff +1 (Asian handicap)✗
72%
1.38
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
77%
1.30
1.23
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
54%
1.85
1.72
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
67%
1.49
1.37
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✗
83%
1.21
1.14
First team to score
Plymouth to score first
51%
1.95
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
41%
2.46
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Plymouth / FT Plymouth✓
26%
3.88
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
8%
13.17
–
Recent results
Plymouth – last 1
W
17 Feb
@ Leyton Orient
3–1
W
3.0Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
100%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Cardiff – last 1
W
17 Feb
vs AFC Wimbledon
4–1
W
4.0Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
100%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Plymouth and Cardiff.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 77% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.23.
Who will win Plymouth vs Cardiff?
On our numbers Plymouth have a 38% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Cardiff 38%.
How many goals will there be in Plymouth vs Cardiff?
We expect about 2.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 54% likely and both teams score 63% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Plymouth vs Cardiff?
Our predicted score is Plymouth 1–1 Cardiff, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.9 goals in total.
When is Plymouth vs Cardiff?
Plymouth vs Cardiff (League One) kicks off on Saturday 21 February 2026 at 13:30 (West Africa Time) at Home Park.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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