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BetaraziFootball predictions · read by the numbers

Luton v Exeter City: numbers & prediction

League One · England · Kenilworth Road

Luton

DWWDL
3–2
FT

Exeter City

LDDD
Luton 57%Draw 23%Exeter City 20% Expected goals 1.82 – 1.02
76%
Betarazi pick

Over 1.5 goals

Strong pick · fair odds 1.32 · bookmaker 1.28 · Won ✓

8/10Rating
1.28Odds

Picks by market

ResultLuton to win ✓57% · @1.68
Double chanceLuton or draw ✓80% · @1.17
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓59% · @1.75
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓76% · @1.28
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.13

Luton vs Exeter City: Betarazi preview and prediction

The fixture

Exeter City travel to face Luton on Tuesday 17 March in the League One, with Kenilworth Road the venue – the ball rolls at 20:45 WAT.

Current form

Luton, last 5: DWWDL Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with Doncaster, away. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 0 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.2 scored, 1.0 conceded per game.

Exeter City, last 4: LDDD Their latest outing: 0–1 defeat to Lincoln, at home. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 1.5 conceded per game.

Momentum favours Luton, collecting 1.6 points per game to 0.8 for Exeter City.

Where the goals come from

Betarazi's ratings give Luton 1.8 xG, Exeter City 1.0 xG – a total near 2.8. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 53%, GG 59%.

Markets worth a look

  • 1X2 according to our numbers – Luton 57%, draw 23%, Exeter City 20%.
  • Lower-risk option: Luton or draw (80%) at 1.17.
  • GG/NG: GG (59%) at 1.75.

Our call before kick-off

Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (76%, odds 1.28). Most likely score in line with that pick: Luton 1–1 Exeter City. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.

Result chances

Luton57%fair 1.75 · @1.68
Draw23%fair 4.36 · @3.75
Exeter City20%fair 5.04 · @4.85
2.84Expected goals
1.82Luton xG
1.02Exeter City xG
59%Both score
53%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

1–111%
1–011%
2–110%
2–010%
3–16%
0–16%

From our goals model: Luton 1.8 – 1.0 Exeter City expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

Team ratings (Betarazi)

LutonExeter City
Attack vs League One average+34%-0%
Goals conceded vs average-1%+1%
Our expected goals here2.011.20

Our own ratings from every League One result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

MarketMost likelyChanceFair oddsBookmaker
Match resultLuton to win ✓57%1.751.68
Double chanceLuton or draw ✓80%1.251.17
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score ✓59%1.701.75
Draw no betLuton (draw no bet) ✓74%1.35–
Asian handicapExeter City +1.5 (Asian handicap) ✓68%1.47–
Over/under 1.5 goalsOver 1.5 goals ✓76%1.321.28
Over/under 2.5 goalsOver 2.5 goals ✓53%1.901.83
Over/under 3.5 goalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗69%1.451.36
Over/under 4.5 goalsUnder 4.5 goals ✗84%1.191.12
First team to scoreLuton to score first60%1.66–
Half-time resultLuton ahead at half-time ✓41%2.44–
Half-time / full-timeHT Luton / FT Luton ✓35%2.87–
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10%10.13–

Recent results

Luton – last 5

DWWDL
10 Mar@ Doncaster1–1D
4 Marvs Northampton2–1W
24 Febvs Plymouth2–1W
21 Febvs Burton Albion1–1D
18 Feb@ Wigan0–1L
1.2Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
80%Both scored
40%Over 2.5

Exeter City – last 4

LDDD
10 Marvs Lincoln0–1L
3 Marvs Burton Albion1–1D
21 Feb@ Peterborough3–3D
17 Febvs Wycombe1–1D
1.3Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
75%Both scored
25%Over 2.5

Head to head

No previous meetings on record between Luton and Exeter City.

Luton vs Exeter City head-to-head page →

League One table

#TeamPWDLGDPts
1Huddersfield14851+1629
2Stockport County14824+1226
3Oxford United13751+1126
4Luton14734+624
5Plymouth14725+223
6Reading14644+1022
7Bradford13643+222
8Cambridge United14563021
9Sheffield Wednesday13553+820
10Leicester13544+319
11Mansfield Town13544+219
12Milton Keynes Dons13463+218
13Wycombe13463-218
14Leyton Orient13526+517
15Burton Albion14455-317
16Stevenage12444+416
17Notts County12354-114
18AFC Wimbledon13346-1213
19Blackpool12336-412
20Doncaster13337-812
21Wigan14329-1111
22Peterborough13247-1210
23Barnsley12237-109
24Bromley13238-209

More League One predictions

League hub
FT AFC Wimbledon2 Leyton Orient4 135%2.30X27%3.20238%3.10 1.1–1.4xG U3.5Under 3.5 goals 75%@1.25 ✗
FT Blackpool3 Port Vale2 142%1.97X26%3.30232%3.85 1.3–1.2xG U3.5Under 3.5 goals 75%@1.25 ✗
FT Bolton0 Doncaster0 164%1.59X21%4.00215%5.20 2.1–0.9xG O1.5Over 1.5 goals 79%@1.20 ✗
FT Bradford1 Mansfield Town1 150%1.90X29%3.45221%3.90 1.3–0.8xG U3.5Under 3.5 goals 78%@1.28 ✓
FT Burton Albion1 Reading2 138%2.18X25%3.40237%3.15 1.3–1.4xG O1.5Over 1.5 goals 73%@1.30 ✓
FT Huddersfield2 Lincoln2 137%3.10X26%3.25237%2.28 1.4–1.2xG U3.5Under 3.5 goals 74%@1.25 ✗
FT Peterborough5 Rotherham0 140%2.45X26%3.60234%2.62 1.4–1.2xG O1.5Over 1.5 goals 75%@1.22 ✓
FT Plymouth1 Stevenage0 150%1.92X26%3.35224%4.00 1.5–1.0xG 1XPlymouth or draw 76%@1.22 ✓

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Luton vs Exeter City?

Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 76% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.28.

Who will win Luton vs Exeter City?

On our numbers Luton have a 57% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Exeter City 20%.

How many goals will there be in Luton vs Exeter City?

We expect about 2.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 53% likely and both teams score 59% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for Luton vs Exeter City?

Our predicted score is Luton 1–1 Exeter City, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.8 goals in total.

When is Luton vs Exeter City?

Luton vs Exeter City (League One) kicks off on Tuesday 17 March 2026 at 20:45 (West Africa Time) at Kenilworth Road.

Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.