Value bet: Both teams to score @ 1.93 – our chance 55% vs 52% implied by the price (edge +6%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultPlymouth to win ✓50% · @1.92
Double chancePlymouth or draw ✓76% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗55% · @1.93
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓76% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 10.75
Plymouth vs Stevenage: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Stevenage travel to face Plymouth on Tuesday 17 March in the League One, with Home Park the venue – the ball rolls at 20:45 WAT. In the table, Plymouth are 5th, upper half, on 23 points after 14 matches; Stevenage are 16th (lower half) with 16.
Current form
Plymouth, last 4: WLWW Their latest outing: 3–0 win over Wigan, away. Scoring is no problem – 3.0 a game lately.
Stevenage, last 3: LLW Their latest outing: 1–2 defeat to Leyton Orient, at home. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 2.0 conceded per game.
Momentum favours Plymouth, collecting 2.3 points per game to 1.0 for Stevenage.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Plymouth 1.5 xG, Stevenage 1.0 xG – a total near 2.6. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 45%, GG 55%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Plymouth 50%, draw 26%, Stevenage 24%.
Lower-risk option: Plymouth or draw (76%) at 1.22.
GG/NG: GG (55%) at 1.93.
Price worth noting: Both teams to score @1.93 – the bookmaker implies 52%, our ratings say 55%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Plymouth or draw (76%, odds 1.22). Most likely score in line with that pick: Plymouth 1–1 Stevenage. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Plymouth50%fair 2.00 · @1.92
Draw26%fair 3.83 · @3.35
Stevenage24%fair 4.18 · @4.00
2.56Expected goals
1.52Plymouth xG
1.04Stevenage xG
55%Both score
45%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–112%
1–012%
2–19%
2–09%
0–18%
0–08%
From our goals model: Plymouth 1.5 – 1.0 Stevenage expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Plymouth
Stevenage
Attack vs League One average
+15%
-3%
Goals conceded vs average
-3%
-9%
Our expected goals here
1.55
1.15
Our own ratings from every League One result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Plymouth to win✓
50%
2.00
1.92
Double chance
Plymouth or draw✓
76%
1.31
1.22
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
55%
1.82
1.93 ▲
Draw no bet
Plymouth (draw no bet)✓
68%
1.48
–
Asian handicap
Stevenage +1 (Asian handicap)
68%
1.48
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
70%
1.43
1.40
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
55%
1.82
1.65
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
76%
1.32
1.22
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
89%
1.13
1.06
First team to score
Plymouth to score first✓
55%
1.82
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
43%
2.32
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Plymouth / FT Plymouth✗
29%
3.45
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
10.75
–
Recent results
Plymouth – last 4
WLWW
10 Mar
@ Wigan
3–0
W
24 Feb
@ Luton
1–2
L
21 Feb
vs Cardiff
5–2
W
17 Feb
@ Leyton Orient
3–1
W
3.0Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
75%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Stevenage – last 3
LLW
10 Mar
vs Leyton Orient
1–2
L
21 Feb
@ Wycombe
1–3
L
17 Feb
vs Port Vale
2–1
W
1.3Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
100%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Plymouth and Stevenage.
Our pick is Plymouth or draw with a 76% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Plymouth vs Stevenage?
On our numbers Plymouth have a 50% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Stevenage 24%.
How many goals will there be in Plymouth vs Stevenage?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 45% likely and both teams score 55% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Plymouth vs Stevenage?
Our predicted score is Plymouth 1–1 Stevenage, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is Plymouth vs Stevenage?
Plymouth vs Stevenage (League One) kicks off on Tuesday 17 March 2026 at 20:45 (West Africa Time) at Home Park.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Port Vale2
Bolton0
Lincoln2
Exeter City2
Rotherham0