On Sunday 1 March the Ligue 1 brings Lille against Nantes at Decathlon Arena - Stade Pierre-Mauroy. Kick-off: 17:15 WAT.
Current form
Lille, last 3: WWL Their latest outing: 1–0 win over FK Crvena Zvezda, away. Scoring is the worry: just 0.7 goals a game. Defensively they have kept 2 clean sheets in that run.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Lille 1.7 xG, Nantes 0.9 xG – a total near 2.6. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 51%, GG 50%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to stay under 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Lille 60%, draw 24%, Nantes 16%.
GG/NG: GG (50%) at 1.85.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (74%, odds 1.25). Most likely score in line with that pick: Lille 1–1 Nantes. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Lille60%fair 1.65 · @1.49
Draw24%fair 4.23 · @4.10
Nantes16%fair 6.30 · @6.40
2.63Expected goals
1.74Lille xG
0.88Nantes xG
50%Both score
51%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–013%
1–111%
2–011%
2–110%
0–07%
0–16%
From our goals model: Lille 1.7 – 0.9 Nantes expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Lille to win✓
60%
1.65
1.49
Double chance
Lille or draw✓
84%
1.19
1.11
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
50%
2.00
1.85
Draw no bet
Lille (draw no bet)✓
79%
1.26
–
Asian handicap
Nantes +1.5 (Asian handicap)✓
67%
1.48
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
74%
1.34
1.25
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
51%
1.97
1.80
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
71%
1.41
1.38
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
85%
1.17
1.13
First team to score
Lille to score first✓
62%
1.62
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
42%
2.40
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Lille / FT Lille✗
36%
2.80
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
10%
10.30
–
Recent results
Lille – last 3
WWL
26 Feb
@ FK Crvena Zvezda
1–0
W
22 Feb
@ Angers
1–0
W
19 Feb
vs FK Crvena Zvezda
0–1
L
0.7Scored / game
0.3Conceded / game
0%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Nantes – last 2
WL
22 Feb
vs Le Havre
2–0
W
13 Feb
@ Monaco
1–3
L
1.5Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Lille and Nantes.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 74% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Lille vs Nantes?
On our numbers Lille have a 60% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Nantes 16%.
How many goals will there be in Lille vs Nantes?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 51% likely and both teams score 50% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Lille vs Nantes?
Our predicted score is Lille 1–1 Nantes, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is Lille vs Nantes?
Lille vs Nantes (Ligue 1) kicks off on Sunday 1 March 2026 at 17:15 (West Africa Time) at Decathlon Arena - Stade Pierre-Mauroy.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Metz0