Marseille vs Lyon: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Marseille welcome Lyon to Orange Vélodrome for a Ligue 1 fixture on Sunday 1 March (20:45 WAT). In the table, Marseille are 4th, among the top four, on 18 points after 10 matches; Lyon are 5th (upper half) with 17. Only 1 point split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Marseille 1.7 xG, Lyon 1.2 xG – a total near 2.9. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 55%, GG 60%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Marseille 51%, draw 25%, Lyon 24%.
Lower-risk option: Marseille or draw (76%) at 1.25.
GG/NG: GG (60%) at 1.60.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Marseille or draw (76%, odds 1.25). Most likely score in line with that pick: Marseille 1–1 Lyon. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Marseille51%fair 1.98 · @1.90
Draw25%fair 3.93 · @3.60
Lyon24%fair 4.17 · @3.75
2.85Expected goals
1.69Marseille xG
1.17Lyon xG
60%Both score
55%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–111%
1–010%
2–110%
2–08%
0–17%
1–27%
From our goals model: Marseille 1.7 – 1.2 Lyon expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Marseille to win
51%
1.98
1.90
Double chance
Marseille or draw
76%
1.32
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score
60%
1.66
1.60
Draw no bet
Marseille (draw no bet)
68%
1.47
–
Asian handicap
Lyon +1 (Asian handicap)
66%
1.53
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals
77%
1.30
1.22
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
55%
1.83
1.70
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals
67%
1.50
1.44
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals
82%
1.21
1.17
First team to score
Marseille to score first
56%
1.80
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time
40%
2.47
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Marseille / FT Marseille
30%
3.32
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1
10%
10.45
–
Recent results
Marseille – last 1
L
20 Feb
@ Stade Brestois 29
0–2
L
0.0Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
0%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Lyon – last 2
LW
22 Feb
@ Strasbourg
1–3
L
15 Feb
vs Nice
2–0
W
1.5Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Marseille and Lyon.
Our pick is Marseille or draw with a 76% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Marseille vs Lyon?
On our numbers Marseille have a 51% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Lyon 24%.
How many goals will there be in Marseille vs Lyon?
We expect about 2.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 55% likely and both teams score 60% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Marseille vs Lyon?
Our predicted score is Marseille 1–1 Lyon, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.9 goals in total.
When is Marseille vs Lyon?
Marseille vs Lyon (Ligue 1) kicks off on Sunday 1 March 2026 at 20:45 (West Africa Time) at Orange Vélodrome.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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