Lorient vs Auxerre: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
17:15 WAT, Sunday 1 March: Lorient v Auxerre in the Ligue 1, played at Stade du Moustoir. In the table, Lorient are 10th, lower half, on 15 points after 10 matches; Auxerre are 14th (lower half) with 10.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Lorient 1.6 xG, Auxerre 1.0 xG – a total near 2.6. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 45%, GG 54%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Lorient 49%, draw 26%, Auxerre 25%.
Lower-risk option: Lorient or draw (75%) at 1.25.
GG/NG: GG (54%) at 1.93.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Lorient or draw (75%, odds 1.25). Most likely score in line with that pick: Lorient 1–1 Auxerre. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Lorient49%fair 2.03 · @2.00
Draw26%fair 3.88 · @3.15
Auxerre25%fair 4.01 · @3.90
2.59Expected goals
1.58Lorient xG
1.01Auxerre xG
54%Both score
45%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–112%
1–012%
2–19%
2–09%
0–18%
0–07%
From our goals model: Lorient 1.6 – 1.0 Auxerre expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Lorient to win✗
49%
2.03
2.00
Double chance
Lorient or draw✓
75%
1.33
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
54%
1.86
1.93
Draw no bet
Lorient (draw no bet)
66%
1.50
–
Asian handicap
Auxerre +1 (Asian handicap)✓
65%
1.53
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
70%
1.43
1.42
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
55%
1.81
1.62
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
76%
1.32
1.22
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
88%
1.13
1.06
First team to score
Lorient to score first
56%
1.78
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
43%
2.34
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Lorient / FT Lorient✗
30%
3.29
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
10.58
–
Recent results
Lorient – last 2
DW
22 Feb
@ Nice
3–3
D
15 Feb
vs Angers
2–0
W
2.5Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Auxerre – last 2
LW
22 Feb
vs Rennes
0–3
L
15 Feb
@ Metz
3–1
W
1.5Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Lorient and Auxerre.
Our pick is Lorient or draw with a 75% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Lorient vs Auxerre?
On our numbers Lorient have a 49% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Auxerre 25%.
How many goals will there be in Lorient vs Auxerre?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 45% likely and both teams score 54% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Lorient vs Auxerre?
Our predicted score is Lorient 1–1 Auxerre, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is Lorient vs Auxerre?
Lorient vs Auxerre (Ligue 1) kicks off on Sunday 1 March 2026 at 17:15 (West Africa Time) at Stade du Moustoir.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Nantes0
Metz0