Lille vs Le Havre: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Sunday 3 May the Ligue 1 brings Lille against Le Havre at Decathlon Arena - Stade Pierre-Mauroy. Kick-off: 14:00 WAT. In the table, Lille are 2nd, among the top four, on 21 points after 10 matches; Le Havre are 18th (in the drop zone) with 2. There are 19 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
Lille, last 5: WLWLD Their latest outing: 2–1 win over Marseille, away. In their own stadium the record reads 1 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 1.0 conceded per game.
Le Havre, last 5: DLDLL Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with Auxerre, at home. Away from home the record reads 0 won, 3 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.8 goals a game.
Momentum favours Lille, collecting 1.7 points per game to 0.8 for Le Havre.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Lille 1.9 xG, Le Havre 0.7 xG – a total near 2.7. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 51%, GG 51%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Lille 66%, draw 21%, Le Havre 13%.
GG/NG: GG (51%) at 2.00.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (74%, odds 1.28). Most likely score in line with that pick: Lille 2–0 Le Havre. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Lille66%fair 1.52 · @1.40
Draw21%fair 4.77 · @4.20
Le Havre13%fair 7.46 · @8.20
2.65Expected goals
1.92Lille xG
0.74Le Havre xG
51%Both score
51%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–013%
2–013%
1–110%
2–110%
3–08%
0–07%
From our goals model: Lille 1.9 – 0.7 Le Havre expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Lille to win✗
66%
1.52
1.40
Double chance
Lille or draw✓
87%
1.15
1.07
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
51%
1.98
2.00
Draw no bet
Lille (draw no bet)
83%
1.20
–
Asian handicap
Lille -0.5 (Asian handicap)✗
65%
1.53
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
74%
1.35
1.28
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
51%
1.98
1.83
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
71%
1.41
1.36
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
85%
1.17
1.12
First team to score
Lille to score first
67%
1.49
–
Half-time result
Lille ahead at half-time✗
46%
2.16
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Lille / FT Lille✗
42%
2.40
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
10%
10.50
–
Recent results
Lille – last 6
WLWLDW
22 Mar
@ Marseille
2–1
W
19 Mar
@ Aston Villa
0–2
L
15 Mar
@ Rennes
2–1
W
12 Mar
vs Aston Villa
0–1
L
8 Mar
vs Lorient
1–1
D
1 Mar
vs Nantes
1–0
W
1.0Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Le Havre – last 6
DLDLLW
5 Apr
vs Auxerre
1–1
D
22 Mar
@ Paris FC
2–3
L
15 Mar
vs Lyon
0–0
D
8 Mar
@ Stade Brestois 29
0–2
L
22 Feb
@ Nantes
0–2
L
15 Feb
vs Toulouse
2–1
W
0.8Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Lille and Le Havre.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 74% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.28.
Who will win Lille vs Le Havre?
On our numbers Lille have a 66% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Le Havre 13%.
How many goals will there be in Lille vs Le Havre?
We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 51% likely and both teams score 51% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Lille vs Le Havre?
Our predicted score is Lille 2–0 Le Havre, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.7 goals in total.
When is Lille vs Le Havre?
Lille vs Le Havre (Ligue 1) kicks off on Sunday 3 May 2026 at 14:00 (West Africa Time) at Decathlon Arena - Stade Pierre-Mauroy.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
