Venezia 65%Draw 20%Padova 15%Expected goals 1.91 – 0.97
79%
Betarazi pick
Over 1.5 goals
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.27 · bookmaker 1.20 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.20Odds
GG
Value bet: Both teams to score @ 1.95 – our chance 57% vs 51% implied by the price (edge +11%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultVenezia to win ✓65% · @1.30
Double chanceVenezia or draw ✓85% · @1.06
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓57% · @1.95
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓79% · @1.20
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.07
Venezia vs Padova: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Venezia welcome Padova to Stadio Pierluigi Penzo for a Serie B fixture on Tuesday 17 March (20:00 WAT).
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Venezia 1.9 xG, Padova 1.0 xG – a total near 2.9. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 57%, GG 57%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Venezia 65%, draw 20%, Padova 15%.
GG/NG: GG (57%) at 1.95.
Price worth noting: Both teams to score @1.95 – the bookmaker implies 51%, our ratings say 57%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (79%, odds 1.20). Most likely score in line with that pick: Venezia 1–1 Padova. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Venezia65%fair 1.55 · @1.30
Draw20%fair 5.05 · @5.60
Padova15%fair 6.46 · @8.40
2.89Expected goals
1.91Venezia xG
0.97Padova xG
57%Both score
57%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–011%
1–110%
2–010%
2–110%
3–07%
3–16%
From our goals model: Venezia 1.9 – 1.0 Padova expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Venezia to win✓
65%
1.55
1.30
Double chance
Venezia or draw✓
85%
1.18
1.06
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
57%
1.76
1.95 ▲
Draw no bet
Venezia (draw no bet)✓
81%
1.24
–
Asian handicap
Padova +1.5 (Asian handicap)✗
65%
1.54
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
79%
1.27
1.20
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
57%
1.77
1.62
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
66%
1.53
1.48
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
82%
1.22
1.18
First team to score
Venezia to score first✓
63%
1.60
–
Half-time result
Venezia ahead at half-time✓
43%
2.32
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Venezia / FT Venezia✓
37%
2.67
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
10%
10.07
–
Recent results
Venezia – last 2
WW
3 Mar
vs Avellino
4–0
W
21 Feb
vs Pescara
3–2
W
3.5Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Padova – last 2
DD
3 Mar
vs Spezia
2–2
D
21 Feb
vs Bari
1–1
D
1.5Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
100%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Venezia and Padova.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 79% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Venezia vs Padova?
On our numbers Venezia have a 65% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Padova 15%.
How many goals will there be in Venezia vs Padova?
We expect about 2.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 57% likely and both teams score 57% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Venezia vs Padova?
Our predicted score is Venezia 1–1 Padova, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.9 goals in total.
When is Venezia vs Padova?
Venezia vs Padova (Serie B) kicks off on Tuesday 17 March 2026 at 20:00 (West Africa Time) at Stadio Pierluigi Penzo.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Spezia1
Reggiana0
Monza0