Value bet: Spezia to win @ 2.48 – our chance 49% vs 40% implied by the price (edge +22%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultSpezia to win ✗49% · @2.48
Double chanceEither team to win ✗75% · @1.33
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓52% · @1.85
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓75% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.33
Spezia vs Empoli: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
20:00 WAT, Tuesday 17 March: Spezia v Empoli in the Serie B, played at Stadio Alberto Picco.
Current form
Spezia, last 4: LDWL Their latest outing: 0–3 defeat to Modena, away. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 2.3 conceded per game.
Empoli, last 4: LLDD Their latest outing: 2–3 defeat to Catanzaro, away. Away from home the record reads 0 won, 2 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.5 scored, 2.0 conceded per game.
Momentum favours Spezia, collecting 1.0 points per game to 0.5 for Empoli.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Spezia 1.7 xG, Empoli 0.9 xG – a total near 2.6. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 45%, GG 52%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Spezia 49%, draw 25%, Empoli 26%.
GG/NG: GG (52%) at 1.85.
Price worth noting: Spezia to win @2.48 – the bookmaker implies 40%, our ratings say 49%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (75%, odds 1.22). Most likely score in line with that pick: Spezia 1–0 Empoli. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Spezia49%fair 2.04 · @2.48
Draw25%fair 3.96 · @2.95
Empoli26%fair 3.90 · @3.05
2.62Expected goals
1.70Spezia xG
0.92Empoli xG
52%Both score
45%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–012%
1–111%
2–011%
2–110%
0–07%
0–17%
From our goals model: Spezia 1.7 – 0.9 Empoli expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Spezia to win✗
49%
2.04
2.48 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✗
75%
1.34
1.33
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
52%
1.91
1.85
Draw no bet
Spezia (draw no bet)
66%
1.52
–
Asian handicap
Empoli +1.5 (Asian handicap)✓
69%
1.45
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
70%
1.43
1.42
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
55%
1.83
1.62
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
75%
1.33
1.22
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
88%
1.13
1.06
First team to score
Spezia to score first
60%
1.66
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
42%
2.39
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Spezia / FT Spezia✗
34%
2.91
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
10%
10.33
–
Recent results
Spezia – last 4
LDWL
13 Mar
@ Modena
0–3
L
3 Mar
@ Padova
2–2
D
21 Feb
@ Cesena
3–2
W
15 Feb
vs Frosinone
0–2
L
1.3Scored / game
2.3Conceded / game
50%Both scored
75%Over 2.5
Empoli – last 4
LLDD
8 Mar
@ Catanzaro
2–3
L
4 Mar
@ Bari
1–2
L
20 Feb
@ Frosinone
2–2
D
15 Feb
vs Reggiana
1–1
D
1.5Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
100%Both scored
75%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Spezia and Empoli.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 75% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Spezia vs Empoli?
On our numbers Spezia have a 49% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Empoli 26%.
How many goals will there be in Spezia vs Empoli?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 45% likely and both teams score 52% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Spezia vs Empoli?
Our predicted score is Spezia 1–0 Empoli, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is Spezia vs Empoli?
Spezia vs Empoli (Serie B) kicks off on Tuesday 17 March 2026 at 20:00 (West Africa Time) at Stadio Alberto Picco.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Venezia3
Reggiana0
Monza0