Avellino v Modena Prediction & Expected Goals (8 May) – Odds, Stats, Pick

Picks by market

ResultAvellino to win ✓49% · @1.90

Double chanceAvellino or draw ✓75% · @1.22

Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗56% · @1.80

GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓74% · @1.28

Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 11.29

Avellino vs Modena: Betarazi preview and prediction

The fixture

Modena travel to face Avellino on Friday 8 May in the Serie B, with Stadio Partenio-Adriano Lombardi the venue – the ball rolls at 19:30 WAT. In the table, Avellino are 5th, upper half, on 16 points after 11 matches; Modena are 2nd (among the top four) with 23.

Current form

Avellino, last 5: LLLWW Their latest outing: 0–1 defeat to Empoli, away. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 2.0 conceded per game.

Modena, last 5: WLDLW Their latest outing: 2–1 win over Reggiana, at home. Away from home the record reads 0 won, 3 lost from 4. Goals for and against: 1.5 scored, 1.5 conceded per game.

Where the goals come from

Betarazi's ratings give Avellino 1.4 xG, Modena 1.1 xG – a total near 2.6. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 47%, GG 56%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.

Markets worth a look

1X2 according to our numbers – Avellino 49%, draw 26%, Modena 25%.
Lower-risk option: Avellino or draw (75%) at 1.22.
GG/NG: GG (56%) at 1.80.

Our call before kick-off

Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (74%, odds 1.28). Most likely score in line with that pick: Avellino 1–1 Modena. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.

Result chances

Avellino49%fair 2.05 · @1.90

Draw26%fair 3.89 · @3.45

Modena25%fair 3.94 · @3.95

2.56Expected goals

1.41Avellino xG

1.14Modena xG

56%Both score

47%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

1–113%

1–011%

2–19%

0–19%

2–08%

0–08%

From our goals model: Avellino 1.4 – 1.1 Modena expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

Market	Most likely	Chance	Fair odds	Bookmaker
Match result	Avellino to win ✓	49%	2.05	1.90
Double chance	Avellino or draw ✓	75%	1.34	1.22
Both teams to score	Both teams to score ✗	56%	1.79	1.80
Draw no bet	Avellino (draw no bet) ✓	66%	1.52	–
Asian handicap	Modena +1 (Asian handicap)	73%	1.36	–
Over/under 1.5 goals	Over 1.5 goals ✗	72%	1.39	1.33
Over/under 2.5 goals	Under 2.5 goals ✓	53%	1.90	1.80
Over/under 3.5 goals	Under 3.5 goals ✓	74%	1.35	1.28
Over/under 4.5 goals	Under 4.5 goals ✓	87%	1.14	1.09
First team to score	Avellino to score first ✓	51%	1.96	–
Half-time result	Level at half-time ✗	43%	2.30	–
Half-time / full-time	HT Avellino / FT Avellino ✓	25%	3.95	–
Correct score	Correct score 2–1 ✗	9%	11.29	–

Avellino – last 6

LLLWWL

1 May	@ Empoli	0–1	L
5 Apr	@ Palermo	0–2	L
22 Mar	@ Sampdoria	1–2	L
18 Mar	vs Sudtirol	3–2	W
15 Mar	@ Virtus Entella	2–1	W
3 Mar	@ Venezia	0–4	L

1.0Scored / game

2.0Conceded / game

50%Both scored

67%Over 2.5

Modena – last 6

WLDLWL

1 May	vs Reggiana	2–1	W
24 Apr	@ Monza	0–1	L
14 Apr	@ Catanzaro	2–2	D
6 Apr	@ Bari	1–3	L
13 Mar	vs Spezia	3–0	W
3 Mar	@ Virtus Entella	1–2	L

1.5Scored / game

1.5Conceded / game

67%Both scored

83%Over 2.5

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Palermo	11	8	3	0	+12	27
2	Modena	11	7	2	2	+10	23
3	Ascoli	11	5	5	1	+10	20
4	Mantova	11	5	4	2	+4	19
5	Avellino	11	4	4	3	+5	16
6	Benevento	11	4	4	3	+4	16
7	Hellas Verona	11	4	4	3	+6	16
8	Pisa	11	4	4	3	+3	16
9	Cremonese	11	4	3	4	+2	15
10	Padova	11	4	3	4	-1	15
11	Cesena	11	3	6	2	-2	15
12	Sudtirol	11	3	6	2	+1	15
13	Juve Stabia	11	4	4	3	+1	12
14	Arezzo	11	3	2	6	-11	11
15	Sampdoria	11	3	2	6	-7	11
16	Virtus Entella	11	2	4	5	-3	10
17	Carrarese	11	3	1	7	-5	10
18	Vicenza Virtus	11	2	3	6	-10	9
19	Empoli	11	2	3	6	-7	9
20	Catanzaro	11	1	3	7	-12	6

Team

Pts

+12

+10

+10

-1

-2

-11

-7

-3

-5

-10

-7

-12

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Avellino vs Modena?

Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 74% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.28.

Who will win Avellino vs Modena?

On our numbers Avellino have a 49% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Modena 25%.

How many goals will there be in Avellino vs Modena?

We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 47% likely and both teams score 56% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for Avellino vs Modena?

Our predicted score is Avellino 1–1 Modena, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.

When is Avellino vs Modena?

Avellino vs Modena (Serie B) kicks off on Friday 8 May 2026 at 19:30 (West Africa Time) at Stadio Partenio-Adriano Lombardi.

Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.

Avellino v Modena: numbers & prediction