Very strong pick · fair odds 1.28 · bookmaker 1.20 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.20Odds
GG
Value bet: Both teams to score @ 1.95 – our chance 56% vs 51% implied by the price (edge +8%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultHércules to win ✓51% · @1.80
Double chanceHércules or draw ✓78% · @1.14
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗56% · @1.95
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓78% · @1.20
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 11.18
Hércules vs Marbella: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Sunday 29 March the Primera División RFEF Group 2 brings Hércules against Marbella at Estadio José Rico Pérez. Kick-off: 17:45 WAT.
Current form
Hércules, last 5: LWDDL Their latest outing: 1–2 defeat to Real Betis II, away. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 1.0 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 2 clean sheets in that run.
Marbella, last 5: WWDWL Their latest outing: 3–0 win over Sevilla Atletico, at home. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 1 lost from 3. The attack is flying at 2.0 goals per game. Defensively they have kept 2 clean sheets in that run.
Momentum favours Marbella, collecting 2.0 points per game to 1.0 for Hércules.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Hércules 1.4 xG, Marbella 0.9 xG – a total near 2.4. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 42%, GG 56%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Hércules 51%, draw 27%, Marbella 22%.
Lower-risk option: Hércules or draw (78%) at 1.14.
GG/NG: GG (56%) at 1.95.
Price worth noting: Both teams to score @1.95 – the bookmaker implies 51%, our ratings say 56%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (78%, odds 1.20). Most likely score in line with that pick: Hércules 1–0 Marbella. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Hércules51%fair 1.95 · @1.80
Draw27%fair 3.70 · @3.20
Marbella22%fair 4.62 · @4.33
2.36Expected goals
1.42Hércules xG
0.94Marbella xG
56%Both score
42%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–013%
1–113%
2–010%
0–09%
2–19%
0–19%
From our goals model: Hércules 1.4 – 0.9 Marbella expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Hércules
Marbella
Attack vs Primera División RFEF Group 2 average
-16%
+13%
Goals conceded vs average
-7%
+1%
Our expected goals here
1.41
1.11
Our own ratings from every Primera División RFEF Group 2 result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Hércules to win✓
51%
1.95
1.80
Double chance
Hércules or draw✓
78%
1.28
1.14
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
56%
1.80
1.95 ▲
Draw no bet
Hércules (draw no bet)✓
70%
1.42
–
Asian handicap
Marbella +1 (Asian handicap)✗
69%
1.45
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
67%
1.49
1.40
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
58%
1.72
1.60
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
78%
1.28
1.20
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
91%
1.10
–
First team to score
Hércules to score first✓
54%
1.84
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
45%
2.21
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Hércules / FT Hércules✓
28%
3.52
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
11.18
–
Recent results
Hércules – last 5
LWDDL
20 Mar
@ Real Betis II
1–2
L
15 Mar
vs Real Murcia
2–0
W
8 Mar
@ Atlético Madrid II
0–0
D
21 Feb
@ Juventud Torremolinos
2–2
D
15 Feb
vs Antequera
0–1
L
1.0Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
40%Both scored
40%Over 2.5
Marbella – last 5
WWDWL
22 Mar
vs Sevilla Atletico
3–0
W
15 Mar
@ Ibiza
1–0
W
11 Mar
@ Real Murcia
1–1
D
22 Feb
vs Algeciras
4–1
W
15 Feb
@ FC Cartagena
1–2
L
2.0Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
60%Both scored
60%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Hércules and Marbella.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 78% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Hércules vs Marbella?
On our numbers Hércules have a 51% chance of winning, the draw 27% and Marbella 22%.
How many goals will there be in Hércules vs Marbella?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 42% likely and both teams score 56% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Hércules vs Marbella?
Our predicted score is Hércules 1–0 Marbella, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is Hércules vs Marbella?
Hércules vs Marbella (Primera División RFEF Group 2) kicks off on Sunday 29 March 2026 at 17:45 (West Africa Time) at Estadio José Rico Pérez.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Sabadell1
Sevilla Atletico0
Tarazona1
Eldense2