Value bet: Villarreal II to win @ 3.45 – our chance 31% vs 29% implied by the price (edge +6%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultAlcorcon to win ✗43% · @2.15
Double chanceEither team to win ✓74% · @1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓55% · @1.90
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗75% · @1.20
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 11.20
Alcorcon vs Villarreal II: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Alcorcon welcome Villarreal II to Estadio Municipal de Santo Domingo for a Primera División RFEF Group 2 fixture on Sunday 19 April (15:00 WAT). In the table, Alcorcon are 5th, upper half, on 18 points after 11 matches; Villarreal II are 2nd (among the top four) with 22.
Current form
Alcorcon, last 5: WDLDW Their latest outing: 4–0 win over Hércules, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 0 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.4 scored, 0.6 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Villarreal II, last 5: WDLWW Their latest outing: 4–0 win over Algeciras, at home. 2.2 goals per outing makes them dangerous. Defensively they have kept 2 clean sheets in that run.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Alcorcon 1.4 xG, Villarreal II 1.2 xG – a total near 2.6. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 45%, GG 55%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Alcorcon 43%, draw 26%, Villarreal II 31%.
GG/NG: GG (55%) at 1.90.
Price worth noting: Villarreal II to win @3.45 – the bookmaker implies 29%, our ratings say 31%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (75%, odds 1.20). Most likely score in line with that pick: Alcorcon 1–1 Villarreal II. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Alcorcon43%fair 2.32 · @2.15
Draw26%fair 3.83 · @2.95
Villarreal II31%fair 3.24 · @3.45
2.62Expected goals
1.45Alcorcon xG
1.18Villarreal II xG
55%Both score
45%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–112%
1–011%
2–19%
0–19%
2–08%
0–07%
From our goals model: Alcorcon 1.4 – 1.2 Villarreal II expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Alcorcon
Villarreal II
Attack vs Primera División RFEF Group 2 average
+25%
+41%
Goals conceded vs average
-2%
-13%
Our expected goals here
1.81
1.46
Our own ratings from every Primera División RFEF Group 2 result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Alcorcon to win✗
43%
2.32
2.15
Double chance
Either team to win✓
74%
1.35
1.30
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
55%
1.82
1.90
Draw no bet
Alcorcon (draw no bet)✗
58%
1.72
–
Asian handicap
Villarreal II +1 (Asian handicap)✓
73%
1.37
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
70%
1.44
1.42
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
55%
1.81
1.57
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
75%
1.33
1.20
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✗
87%
1.14
–
First team to score
Alcorcon to score first
51%
1.96
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
43%
2.33
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Alcorcon / FT Alcorcon✗
25%
3.92
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
11.20
–
Recent results
Alcorcon – last 5
WDLDW
5 Apr
vs Hércules
4–0
W
15 Mar
vs Algeciras
0–0
D
8 Mar
@ Juventud Torremolinos
0–1
L
22 Feb
@ Eldense
2–2
D
15 Feb
vs Real Murcia
1–0
W
1.4Scored / game
0.6Conceded / game
20%Both scored
40%Over 2.5
Villarreal II – last 5
WDLWW
12 Apr
vs Algeciras
4–0
W
29 Mar
vs Sabadell
1–1
D
8 Mar
@ Teruel
0–1
L
4 Mar
vs Eldense
2–0
W
20 Feb
@ Real Betis II
4–1
W
2.2Scored / game
0.6Conceded / game
40%Both scored
40%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Alcorcon and Villarreal II.
What is the prediction for Alcorcon vs Villarreal II?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 75% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Alcorcon vs Villarreal II?
On our numbers Alcorcon have a 43% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Villarreal II 31%.
How many goals will there be in Alcorcon vs Villarreal II?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 45% likely and both teams score 55% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Alcorcon vs Villarreal II?
Our predicted score is Alcorcon 1–1 Villarreal II, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is Alcorcon vs Villarreal II?
Alcorcon vs Villarreal II (Primera División RFEF Group 2) kicks off on Sunday 19 April 2026 at 15:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Municipal de Santo Domingo.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Marbella2
Sevilla Atletico1
Real Betis II2
Tarazona0
Eldense0
Sabadell0